Football Stats Hub

Southampton crestSouthampton
v
QPR crestQPR

Championship | Sat 31 Oct, 15:00

Southampton v QPR Stats

Data last updated: Fri 30 Oct 2026, 22:04 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Southampton host QPR in a Championship clash loaded with playoff implications, both teams level on points but separated by goal difference. Southampton arrive on a seven-game unbeaten run, showcasing impressive ball control with 57.2% possession and an 83.7% pass accuracy, aiming to dominate the tempo at St Mary's. QPR, fresh from a 3-1 away win at Hull, rely on aerial strength and set-piece threat led by Jimmy Dunne, posing a counter-attacking danger to Southampton's vulnerable defense. The tactical battle will hinge on Southampton's ability to break down QPR's resilient defense while managing counter risks, setting the stage for a tightly contested encounter.

BT4Y lean · price warning

Southampton to Win

  • Price warning: current odds imply about 56%, above the 45% model chance, so this is a football-led pick rather than a clear value bet; reduce stake or wait for a better price.
  • Southampton unbeaten in last 7 matches, showing strong momentum.
  • Southampton average 57.2% possession and 83.7% pass accuracy, controlling play.
  • QPR strong in aerial duels with Jimmy Dunne winning 5.1 per game, dangerous on set pieces.
  • Southampton have won last 5 meetings against QPR, indicating historical control.
Price warning

Southampton to Win is still the main football pick, but the current price is short: the market implies about 56% while the model sits nearer 45% (-10.2 pts). Keep staking reduced or wait for a better price unless final team news strengthens the selection. Better value alternative: Over 4.5 Cards shows a +13.7 pts edge at 1.91.

Why This Pick Is Price-Sensitive

Football case vs market price

The model sees Southampton as favorites due to their sustained unbeaten run and superior possession metrics, which typically translate into control and scoring opportunities. Their creative edge, led by Léo Scienza and supported by Adam Armstrong and Ross Stewart, underpins their attacking threat. However, the model notes the price is short compared to the implied chance, reflecting market that slightly exceeds statistical probability. The selection is football-led, emphasizing Southampton's tactical control and recent form, but advises cautious staking given the price sensitivity. Improvements such as favorable team news or drift would enhance value.

Unbeaten run and form momentumStrong positive
Strong positive
Possession and passing accuracyStrong positive
Strong positive
Price vs model chance45.4% model chance vs 55.6% implied (-10.2 pts)
Negative
Historical head-to-head controlPositive
Positive
Defensive vulnerability to countersNeutral risk factor
Neutral

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Southampton's tactical approach of sustained possession and creative midfield play positions them well to break down QPR's defense, especially given their recent unbeaten streak and historical control in this fixture. QPR's aerial threat and set-piece prowess add a layer of risk, but Southampton's control and attacking depth make them the likely winners in this closely matched contest.

Main risk

Risk Factor: Southampton are noted as being weak at defending counter attacks, which is exactly how QPR look to strike.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Tactical control and attacking creativity

“Southampton's ability to control possession and create high-quality chances through players like Scienza and Armstrong gives them a clear edge, despite QPR's aerial threat. Their recent form and home advantage make them the logical pick to secure victory.”

Key Data Signals

Southampton to Win evidence

Southampton unbeaten in last 7 matches, showing strong momentum.

Southampton average 57.2% possession and 83.7% pass accuracy, controlling play.

QPR strong in aerial duels with Jimmy Dunne winning 5.1 per game, dangerous on set pieces.

Southampton have won last 5 meetings against QPR, indicating historical control.

What To Watch In The Data

Southampton to Win notes

  • Over the last eight meetings, the average goals per game stand at 2.88, indicating a moderately high-scoring trend.
  • Southampton's matches have a 40% rate of over 2.5 goals, while QPR's is 80%, suggesting this fixture is likely to feature multiple goals, driven by Southampton's attacking volume and QPR's set-piece threat.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Southampton1.2
Avg goals scored
QPR2.4
Southampton0.8
Avg goals conceded
QPR1.4
Southampton40%
BTTS rate
QPR60%
Southampton40%
Over 2.5 goals
QPR80%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 63% vs implied 65% · edge -2.1 pts
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
Load more odds for this section
Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 77%
1.17
Check odds @ 1.17
Under 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 45%
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 59%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
Over 3.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 41%
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 41%
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
Southampton average 1.2 goals per game with a 40% BTTS rate, while QPR score 2.4 goals per game with a 60% BTTS rate. The combined data and tactical context suggest a match with scoring potential on both sides, especially given QPR's aerial threat and Southampton's attacking creativity. The 2-1 scoreline is a plausible outcome balancing offensive firepower and defensive vulnerabilities.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickSouthampton to WinBet365 guide price · Model 45% vs implied 56% · edge -10.2 pts
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Load more odds for this section
Southampton Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 56%
2.02
Check odds @ 2.02
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 63%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 59%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 45%
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
The 45.4% for Southampton to Win sits against roughly 55.6% implied by the current price (-10.2 pts). Southampton have the stronger recent points return, taking 10 points from the sample compared with 8 for QPR. First wave after half-time: Southampton’s average first goal time sits around 46', and QPR’s away matches often sit level at the break — the.

Continue the research

Useful next reads

Championship fixtures and predictionsSouthampton v QPR predictioncorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting anglesstats dashboardfootball analysis hubprediction centrebest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Southampton

WDWWL
Last 53W 1D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 106W 3D 1L
24 Oct 2026A West Ham3-2
17 Oct 2026H Bolton0-0
14 Oct 2026A Norwich1-0
11 Oct 2026H Portsmouth1-0
19 Sep 2026A Wrexham1-2

QPR

WLWDD
Last 52W 2D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 104W 4D 2L
24 Oct 2026H Swansea5-0
17 Oct 2026A Birmingham0-3
14 Oct 2026H Derby4-1
09 Oct 2026A West Ham1-1
19 Sep 2026H Preston2-2
Market aligned with main pickSouthampton to WinBet365 guide price · Model 45% vs implied 56% · edge -10.2 pts
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Load more odds for this section
Southampton Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 56%
2.02
Check odds @ 2.02
Home / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 75%
1.22
Check odds @ 1.22
Southampton have accumulated 10 points in recent matches with a solid defensive record conceding 0.8 goals per game, underpinning their unbeaten streak. QPR have scored more goals recently (2.4 per game) but conceded 1.4, indicating a more open style. Southampton's consistent form and defensive solidity give them an edge in controlling the match tempo and limiting QPR's counter-attacks.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

40%Southampton Over 2.5
80%QPR Over 2.5
2.88H2H avg goals
Over the last eight meetings, the average goals per game stand at 2.88, indicating a moderately high-scoring trend. Southampton's matches have a 40% rate of over 2.5 goals, while QPR's is 80%, suggesting this fixture is likely to feature multiple goals, driven by Southampton's attacking volume and QPR's set-piece threat.

Loading deeper match data…