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Southampton crestSouthampton
v
Portsmouth crestPortsmouth

Championship | Sun 11 Oct, 12:00

Southampton v Portsmouth Stats

Data last updated: Sun 01 Nov 2026, 19:02 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Southampton face Portsmouth in Championship on Sun 11 Oct, 12:00. Portsmouth arrive unbeaten in three league matches, however, and John Mousinho's men will be determined to disrupt their neighbours' impressive run.

BT4Y best bet

Credible, despite Portsmouth's selection challenges and occasional defensive resilience

  • At 13/20, Credible, despite Portsmouth's selection challenges and occasional defensive resilience implies roughly 61%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 76%.
  • Southampton's strong home scoring and persistent defensive concessions support both teams scoring.
  • Southampton show a 100% BTTS rate and Portsmouth show a 40% BTTS rate, which is the right starting point for this market.
  • Southampton average 2 goals scored and Portsmouth average 1, so both attacking contributions need separating.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 76% for Credible, despite Portsmouth's selection challenges and occasional defensive resilience sits against roughly 61% implied by the current price. Southampton show a 100% BTTS rate and Portsmouth show a 40% BTTS rate, which is the right starting point for this market. Southampton's strong home scoring and persistent defensive concessions support both teams scoring.

Model chance vs price76% model chance against roughly 61% implied
Strong positive
Southampton show a 100% BTTS rate and Portsmouth show a.Visible data support
Positive
Southampton average 2 goals scored and Portsmouth average 1, so.Visible data support
Positive
Southampton's strong home scoring and persistent defensive concessions support.Article support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Both Teams To Score is the preferred angle because southampton's strong home scoring and persistent defensive concessions support both teams scoring. Southampton show a that shared-scoring rate rate and Portsmouth show a that shared-scoring rate rate, which is the right starting point for this market. Southampton's perfect home record and prolific attacking performances make them favourites, but their inability to keep clean sheets gives Portsmouth a realistic route into the contest.

Main risk

Southampton's perfect home record and prolific attacking performances make them favourites, but their inability to keep clean sheets gives Portsmouth a realistic route into the contest.

Key Data Signals

Credible, despite Portsmouth's selection challenges and occasional defensive resilience evidence

Southampton's strong home scoring and persistent defensive concessions support both teams scoring.

Southampton show a 100% BTTS rate and Portsmouth show a 40% BTTS rate, which is the right starting point for this market.

Southampton average 2 goals scored and Portsmouth average 1, so both attacking contributions need separating.

What To Watch In The Data

Credible, despite Portsmouth's selection challenges and occasional defensive resilience notes

  • Use shots on target to decide whether attacking involvement is shared or one-sided.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Southampton2
Avg goals scored
Portsmouth1
Southampton1.2
Avg goals conceded
Portsmouth1.2
Southampton100%
BTTS rate
Portsmouth40%
Southampton60%
Over 2.5 goals
Portsmouth40%
Market aligned with main pickBTTS YesBetfred guide price · Model 75% vs implied 60% · edge +15 pts
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
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Under 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 48%
2.3
Check odds @ 2.3
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 74%
1.2
Check odds @ 1.2
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 56%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 38%
2.62
Check odds @ 2.62
BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 28%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1

Continue the research

Useful next reads

Championship fixtures and predictionsrelated match predictioncorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting anglesstats dashboardfootball analysis hubprediction centrebest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickBTTS YesBetfred guide price · Model 75% vs implied 60% · edge +15 pts
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
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Portsmouth Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 42%
3.3
Check odds @ 3.3
Over 8.5 CornersBetfred guide price · model 73%
1.33
Check odds @ 1.33
Southampton to WinBet365 guide price · model 63%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
Southampton Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 72%
1.32
Check odds @ 1.32
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 56%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Over 3.5 CardsBet365 guide price · model 51%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
BTTS Yes is positive value at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Southampton

LWWDD
Last 52W 2D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 104W 2D 2L
19 Sep 2026A Wrexham1-2
12 Sep 2026H Bristol City4-1
08 Sep 2026H Swansea3-1
05 Sep 2026A Lincoln1-1
01 Sep 2026A Birmingham1-1

Portsmouth

DDWLL
Last 51W 2D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 2D 3L
19 Sep 2026H Blackburn2-2
12 Sep 2026A Charlton0-0
05 Sep 2026H Cardiff2-0
01 Sep 2026H Derby0-2
29 Aug 2026A Bristol City1-2
Best odds for this sectionHome / DrawBet365 guide price · Model 86% vs implied 88% · edge -1.7 pts
1.14
Check odds @ 1.14
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Portsmouth Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 42%
3.3
Check odds @ 3.3
Southampton to WinBet365 guide price · model 63%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
Southampton Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 72%
1.32
Check odds @ 1.32
Away / DrawBetfred guide price · model 47%
2.3
Check odds @ 2.3
Portsmouth to WinBet365 guide price · model 23%
5.5
Check odds @ 5.5
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 24%
3.9
Check odds @ 3.9
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

60%Southampton Over 2.5
40%Portsmouth Over 2.5
2.4H2H avg goals
The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Southampton sit at 60% and Portsmouth sit at 40% with the H2H average at 2.4 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

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