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Slovenia crestSlovenia
v
Scotland crestScotland

UEFA Nations League | Sat 26 Sep, 14:00

Slovenia v Scotland Stats

Data last updated: Sat 17 Oct 2026, 02:21 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Slovenia face Scotland in UEFA Nations League on Sat 26 Sep, 14:00. Scotland and Slovenia meet at Hampden Park on Tuesday with little separating them in UEFA Nations League Group B1 and significant pressure attached to the result.

BT4Y lean · price warning

Scotland to win

  • Price warning: current odds imply about 57%, above the 33% model chance, so this is a football-led pick rather than a clear value bet; reduce stake or wait for a better price.
  • At 3/4, Scotland to win implies roughly 57%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 33%.
  • Slovenia have won only one of their last seven away matches.
  • Slovenia sit 2 in the table, while Scotland sit 3, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.
Price warning

Scotland to win is still the main football pick, but the current price is short: the market implies about 57% while the model sits nearer 33% (-24.6 pts). Keep staking reduced or wait for a better price unless final team news strengthens the selection. Better value alternative: Over 2.5 Goals shows a +7.1 pts edge at 2.25.

Why This Pick Is Price-Sensitive

Football case vs market price

The 33% for Scotland to win sits against roughly 57% implied by the current price. Slovenia sit 2 in the table, while Scotland sit 3, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read. Slovenia have won only one of their last seven away matches.

Model chance vs price33% model chance against roughly 57% implied
Negative
Slovenia sit 2 in the table, while Scotland sit 3.Visible data support
Positive
Slovenia have won only one of their last seven.Article support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Scotland Win is the preferred angle because slovenia have won only one of their last seven away matches. Slovenia sit 2 in the table, while Scotland sit 3, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read. Slovenia carry the stronger scoring threat, but Scotland must contribute for BTTS to land.

Main risk

Slovenia carry the stronger scoring threat, but Scotland must contribute for BTTS to land.

Key Data Signals

Scotland to win evidence

Slovenia have won only one of their last seven away matches.

Slovenia sit 2 in the table, while Scotland sit 3, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

What To Watch In The Data

Scotland to win notes

    Market odds

    Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

    Market aligned with main pickScotland to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 33% vs implied 35% · edge -2 pts
    2.9
    Check odds @ 2.9
    Load more odds for this section
    Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 52%
    2.25
    Check odds @ 2.25
    Over 8.5 CornersBetfred guide price
    1.67
    Check odds @ 1.67
    BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 50%
    1.83
    Check odds @ 1.83
    Scotland Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 43%
    1.95
    Check odds @ 1.95
    Scotland to Win is fairly priced at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
    Goals, BTTS and over/under

    Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

    Slovenia-
    Avg goals scored
    Scotland-
    Slovenia-
    Avg goals conceded
    Scotland-
    Slovenia-
    BTTS rate
    Scotland-
    Slovenia-
    Over 2.5 goals
    Scotland-
    Best odds for this sectionOver 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 52% vs implied 44% · edge +7.1 pts
    2.25
    Check odds @ 2.25
    Load more odds for this section
    Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 70%
    1.4
    Check odds @ 1.4
    Over 3.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 34%
    4
    Check odds @ 4
    BTTS NoBetfred guide price · model 54%
    1.83
    Check odds @ 1.83
    BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 50%
    1.83
    Check odds @ 1.83
    Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 53%
    1.62
    Check odds @ 1.62
    Over 2.5 Goals is more of a watchlist angle than a must-bet; goals for, goals conceded and recent over rates need to point in the same direction.
    Recent form

    Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

    Slovenia

    Last 50W 0D 0L
    Last 5 record
    Last 100W 0D 0L

    No recent match sample is available for Slovenia yet.

    Scotland

    Last 50W 0D 0L
    Last 5 record
    Last 100W 0D 0L

    No recent match sample is available for Scotland yet.

    Market aligned with main pickScotland to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 33% vs implied 35% · edge -2 pts
    2.9
    Check odds @ 2.9
    Load more odds for this section
    Away / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 62%
    1.53
    Check odds @ 1.53
    Scotland Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 43%
    1.95
    Check odds @ 1.95
    Key match trends

    Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

    -Slovenia Over 2.5
    -Scotland Over 2.5
    2.5H2H avg goals
    Slovenia have won only one of their last seven away matches.

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