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UEFA Nations League | Sat 26 Sep, 14:00

Slovenia v Scotland Stats

Data last updated: Fri 25 Sep 2026, 08:31 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Slovenia and Scotland meet in a UEFA Nations League clash where both sides aim to improve their standing after slow starts. Scotland's midfield, led by players like Scott McTominay and John McGinn, is expected to push forward aggressively, while Slovenia will look to capitalize on quick transitions through attackers such as Z. The match promises an open tempo with both teams seeking to break the deadlock early, setting the stage for a potentially high-scoring encounter. Tactical flexibility and attacking intent from both sides add to the uncertainty and excitement of this fixture.

BT4Y best bet

Over 2.5 Goals

  • Scotland and Slovenia have averaged 2.5 goals in their two previous meetings.
  • Model projects a 51.5% chance for Over 2.5 Goals, indicating a balanced but positive outlook for goals.
  • Key attacking players like A. Vipotnik show strong shot volumes and goal threat signals.
  • Both teams have midfielders with notable shot and assist potential, suggesting active offensive play.
  • The market shows positive value with at 2.25, reflecting a good opportunity for Over 2.5 Goals.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model assigns a 51.5% probability to Over 2.5 Goals, supported by historical head-to-head data averaging 2.5 goals per game and strong attacking indicators from key players on both sides. Scotland's defenders and midfielders contribute significantly to shot volume, while Slovenia's attackers maintain consistent threat levels. The offer positive value with a 7.1% edge, making this a compelling choice for bettors seeking a goal-rich match. No data limitations affect in this selection.

Head-to-Head Goal Average2.5 goals per match
Positive
Model Probability for Over 2.551.5%
Strong positive
Key Player Shot VolumeHigh shots on target from Ralston and Vipotnik
Positive
Market Value Edge7.1% positive value
Strong positive
Data QualityNo significant limitations
Positive
Main risk

It eliminates the loss risk on a draw, albeit at a reduced return.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Goal-scoring potential and player attacking roles

“This fixture features midfielders and defenders who actively contribute to offensive play, setting up a scenario ripe for goals. Both teams' attacking tendencies and previous meetings support a lively, goal-filled encounter.”

Key Data Signals

Over 2.5 Goals evidence

Scotland and Slovenia have averaged 2.5 goals in their two previous meetings.

Key attacking players like A. Vipotnik show strong shot volumes and goal threat signals.

Both teams have midfielders with notable shot and assist potential, suggesting active offensive play.

What To Watch In The Data

Over 2.5 Goals notes

  • Over the two previous meetings, the average goals scored is 2.5, indicating a balanced scoring trend.
  • This sample suggests a tempo that favors goal opportunities, with both teams capable of breaking through defenses, supporting the Over 2.5 Goals trend for this fixture.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

0Slovenia wins
1Draws
1Scotland wins
08 Oct 2017Slovenia v Scotland2-2
26 Mar 2017Scotland v Slovenia1-0
Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 52% vs implied 44% · edge +7.1 pts
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
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BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 50%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Slovenia to WinBet365 guide price · model 37%
2.55
Check odds @ 2.55
Scotland to WinBetMGM guide price · model 34%
2.8
Check odds @ 2.8
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 30%
3.1
Check odds @ 3.1
The two recent head-to-head matches between Slovenia and Scotland have produced an average of 2.5 goals per game, demonstrating a history of moderately high-scoring encounters. This limited sample supports the expectation of multiple goals but should be considered alongside current player form and tactical setups.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Slovenia

Last 50W 0D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 0D 0L

No recent match sample is available for Slovenia yet.

Scotland

Last 50W 0D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 0D 0L

No recent match sample is available for Scotland yet.

Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBetMGM guide price · Model 63% vs implied 67% · edge -3.4 pts
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
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Home / DrawBetfred guide price · model 66%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
Slovenia to WinBet365 guide price · model 37%
2.55
Check odds @ 2.55
Scotland Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 44%
2
Check odds @ 2
Scotland to WinBetMGM guide price · model 34%
2.8
Check odds @ 2.8
Slovenia Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 47%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 30%
3.1
Check odds @ 3.1
Recent form data is limited, but both teams have shown tendencies toward open play in UEFA Nations League matches. Scotland's midfielders and defenders have high shot involvement, while Slovenia's attackers maintain steady offensive pressure, supporting the likelihood of a match with multiple goals and active attacking phases.

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Useful next reads

UEFA Nations League hubrelated match predictionplayer stats betting angleslatest football statsmain football hubtoday's predictionsbest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Slovenia-
Avg goals scored
Scotland-
Slovenia-
Avg goals conceded
Scotland-
Slovenia-
BTTS rate
Scotland-
Slovenia-
Over 2.5 goals
Scotland-
Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 52% vs implied 44% · edge +7.1 pts
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
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Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 70%
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
Over 3.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 34%
4
Check odds @ 4
BTTS NoBetfred guide price · model 54%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 50%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 53%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Historical meetings between Slovenia and Scotland have averaged 2.5 goals, supporting the potential for multiple goals in this match. Both teams feature midfielders and attackers with strong shooting and goal threat metrics, indicating a balanced offensive approach likely to produce goals and possibly both teams scoring.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 52% vs implied 44% · edge +7.1 pts
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 50%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Slovenia to WinBet365 guide price · model 37%
2.55
Check odds @ 2.55
Scotland Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 44%
2
Check odds @ 2
Scotland to WinBetMGM guide price · model 34%
2.8
Check odds @ 2.8
Slovenia Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 47%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 30%
3.1
Check odds @ 3.1
The Over 2.5 Goals market is priced at 2.25, reflecting a 44.4% implied chance, which is below the model's 51.5% probability. This discrepancy indicates positive value and suggests the market underestimates the likelihood of a high-scoring game, making the bet attractive from a pricing perspective.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

Open Match Centre player odds

Season team stats

UEFA Nations League

Slovenia0
Played
Scotland0
Slovenia0
Avg goals for
Scotland0
Slovenia0
Avg goals against
Scotland0
Slovenia0
Clean sheets
Scotland0
Best odds for this sectionSlovenia to WinBet365 guide price · Model 37% vs implied 39% · edge -2.5 pts
2.55
Check odds @ 2.55
Load more odds for this section
Scotland Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 44%
2
Check odds @ 2
Scotland to WinBetMGM guide price · model 34%
2.8
Check odds @ 2.8
Slovenia Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 47%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Season-long attacking stats reveal Scotland's defenders and midfielders contribute significantly to shot volume and goal threat, while Slovenia's midfielders and attackers maintain consistent shooting rates. These profiles suggest both teams possess the offensive capability to surpass 2.5 goals collectively in this fixture.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
3Scotland000000
4Slovenia000000
Slovenia and Scotland are positioned closely in the UEFA Nations League group, with both seeking vital points to improve their standings. This competitive context encourages attacking play to secure a win, increasing the chances of a high-scoring match as both sides push forward.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

-Slovenia Over 2.5
-Scotland Over 2.5
2.5H2H avg goals
Over the two previous meetings, the average goals scored is 2.5, indicating a balanced scoring trend. This sample suggests a tempo that favors goal opportunities, with both teams capable of breaking through defenses, supporting the Over 2.5 Goals trend for this fixture.

Related football research

Fixture links

Prediction context

Slovenia v Scotland prediction

Open the full betting preview for the editorial pick, odds context and final selection.

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