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Slovenia crestSlovenia
v
Cyprus crestCyprus

Friendlies | Thu 04 Jun, 17:00

Slovenia v Cyprus Stats

Data last updated: Wed 24 Jun 2026, 10:54 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Slovenia face Cyprus in Friendlies on Thu 04 Jun, 17:00. Cyprus match records carry a high standard of 3.3 goals per game, making an open layout very plausible as both sides try new combinations before upcoming Nations League challenges. Slovenia ended a seven-match winless run by beating Montenegro 3-2 in their most recent victory.

BT4Y best bet

Slovenia Win

  • At 15/2, Slovenia Win implies roughly 12%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 43%.
  • Slovenia showed an open attacking approach under Cesar by beating Montenegro 3-2, demonstrating a step away from lower-scoring profiles.
  • Slovenia have the cleaner defensive sample at 1.5 conceded per match, which helps the Slovenia Win angle more than a raw possession edge.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 43% for Slovenia Win sits against roughly 12% implied by the current price. Slovenia have the cleaner defensive sample at 1.5 conceded per match, which helps the Slovenia Win angle more than a raw possession edge. Slovenia showed an open attacking approach under Cesar by beating Montenegro 3-2, demonstrating a step away from lower-scoring profiles.

Model chance vs price43% model chance against roughly 12% implied
Strong positive
Slovenia have the cleaner defensive sample at 1.5 conceded per.Visible data support
Positive
Slovenia showed an open attacking approach under Cesar by.Article support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Slovenia Win is the preferred angle because slovenia showed an open attacking approach under Cesar by beating Montenegro 3-2, demonstrating a step away from lower-scoring profiles. Slovenia have the cleaner defensive sample at 1.5 conceded per match, which helps the Slovenia Win angle more than a raw possession edge. However, the response against Montenegro was encouraging.

Main risk

However, the response against Montenegro was encouraging.

Key Data Signals

Slovenia Win evidence

Slovenia showed an open attacking approach under Cesar by beating Montenegro 3-2, demonstrating a step away from lower-scoring.

Slovenia have the cleaner defensive sample at 1.5 conceded per match, which helps the Slovenia Win angle more than a raw possession edge.

What To Watch In The Data

Slovenia Win notes

    Corners, cards and shots

    Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

    Slovenia1
    Avg corners for
    Cyprus4.5
    Slovenia10
    Avg total corners
    Cyprus7
    Slovenia3
    Avg yellow cards
    Cyprus1
    Slovenia5
    Avg shots
    Cyprus4
    Best odds for this sectionOver 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · Model 67% vs implied 60% · edge +7.4 pts
    1.67
    Check odds @ 1.67
    Over 8.5 Corners needs a clear match pattern behind it. For corners, that means territory, wide deliveries and blocked shots; for cards, it means duels and transition fouls; for shots, it means repeat box entries rather than harmless possession.

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    Goals, BTTS and over/under

    Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

    Slovenia1.5
    Avg goals scored
    Cyprus1.5
    Slovenia1.5
    Avg goals conceded
    Cyprus1.5
    Slovenia50%
    BTTS rate
    Cyprus50%
    Slovenia50%
    Over 2.5 goals
    Cyprus50%
    Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 67% vs implied 44% · edge +22.3 pts
    2.25
    Check odds @ 2.25
    Load more odds for this section
    Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 54%
    1.8
    Check odds @ 1.8
    Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 50%
    2
    Check odds @ 2
    Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 68%
    1.3
    Check odds @ 1.3
    Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 32%
    3.5
    Check odds @ 3.5
    BTTS NoBetfred guide price · model 37%
    1.57
    Check odds @ 1.57
    Player stats

    Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

    Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

    Open Match Centre player odds

    Market odds

    Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

    Market aligned with main pickSlovenia to WinBetfred guide price · Model 43% vs implied 74% · edge -30.5 pts
    1.36
    Check odds @ 1.36
    Load more odds for this section
    BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 67%
    2.25
    Check odds @ 2.25
    Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 67%
    1.67
    Check odds @ 1.67
    Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 50%
    2
    Check odds @ 2
    Slovenia Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 54%
    1.17
    Check odds @ 1.17
    Slovenia to Win is price-sensitive at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
    Recent form

    Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

    Slovenia

    WL
    Last 51W 0D 1L
    Last 5 record
    Last 101W 0D 1L
    31 Mar 2026A Montenegro3-2
    28 Mar 2026A Hungary0-1

    Cyprus

    WL
    Last 51W 0D 1L
    Last 5 record
    Last 101W 0D 1L
    30 Mar 2026H Moldova3-2
    26 Mar 2026H Belarus0-1
    Market aligned with main pickSlovenia to WinBetfred guide price · Model 43% vs implied 74% · edge -30.5 pts
    1.36
    Check odds @ 1.36
    Load more odds for this section
    Home / DrawBetfred guide price · model 73%
    1.05
    Check odds @ 1.05
    Slovenia Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 54%
    1.17
    Check odds @ 1.17
    Head-to-head

    Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

    1Slovenia wins
    1Draws
    2Cyprus wins
    14 Nov 2021Slovenia v Cyprus2-1
    30 Mar 2021Cyprus v Slovenia1-0
    16 Oct 2018Slovenia v Cyprus1-1
    09 Sep 2018Cyprus v Slovenia2-1
    Market aligned with main pickSlovenia to WinBetfred guide price · Model 43% vs implied 74% · edge -30.5 pts
    1.36
    Check odds @ 1.36
    Load more odds for this section
    BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 67%
    2.25
    Check odds @ 2.25
    Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 50%
    2
    Check odds @ 2
    The head-to-head sample gives context for Slovenia to Win, but it should not overrule the current tactical picture. If previous meetings show goals or momentum swings, they support the market only when the present form and line-ups point to the same game state.
    Season team stats

    Friendlies

    Slovenia4
    Played
    Cyprus4
    Slovenia1.3
    Avg goals for
    Cyprus1.5
    Slovenia1.5
    Avg goals against
    Cyprus1
    Slovenia0
    Clean sheets
    Cyprus1
    Market aligned with main pickSlovenia to WinBetfred guide price · Model 43% vs implied 74% · edge -30.5 pts
    1.36
    Check odds @ 1.36
    Load more odds for this section
    Slovenia Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 54%
    1.17
    Check odds @ 1.17
    Season data supports Slovenia to Win when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.
    Key match trends

    Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

    50%Slovenia Over 2.5
    50%Cyprus Over 2.5
    2.25H2H avg goals
    The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Slovenia sit at 50% and Cyprus sit at 50% with the H2H average at 2.25 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

    Related football research

    Fixture links

    Prediction context

    Slovenia v Cyprus prediction

    Open the full betting preview for the editorial pick, odds context and final selection.

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    Next step

    Betting context

    Start with the clearest numbers above, then check live odds, team news and the full prediction before staking.

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