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Shrewsbury crestShrewsbury
v
Gillingham crestGillingham

League Two | Sat 31 Oct, 15:00

Shrewsbury v Gillingham Stats

Data last updated: Sat 31 Oct 2026, 16:24 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Shrewsbury and Gillingham meet in a League Two clash where both teams are closely matched in the table, sitting 10th and 12th respectively. Shrewsbury have shown slightly better recent form, accumulating 10 points in their last five matches compared to Gillingham's 5 points. The home side's attack has been more potent, averaging 1.8 goals per game, while their defense concedes 1.4 goals. Gillingham, despite a solid defensive record, have struggled to convert chances consistently. This fixture promises a competitive battle with Shrewsbury aiming to leverage home advantage and recent momentum to secure a win.

BT4Y best bet

Shrewsbury to Win

  • Shrewsbury has a 69% to win, with positive value at 1.91 .
  • Shrewsbury averages 13.8 shots and 5.2 shots on target per game, significantly higher than Gillingham.
  • Gillingham concedes more goals on average (1.8) compared to Shrewsbury (1.4).
  • Recent form favors Shrewsbury with double the points gained in last five matches.
  • Key players like J. Brown provide attacking threat for Shrewsbury.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Shrewsbury to win with a 69% chance, reflecting their superior recent form and attacking statistics. Shrewsbury's higher shot volume and efficiency in front of goal, combined with a more resilient defense, underpin this . Gillingham's lower scoring rate and fewer shots on target reduce their likelihood of victory. The price offers positive value, reinforcing the bet's appeal. No data limitations affect the in this selection.

Model Chance67.4% model chance vs 52.4% implied (+15 pts)
Strong positive
Recent FormShrewsbury 10 points vs Gillingham 5 points last 5 matches
Strong positive
Shots per GameShrewsbury 13.8 vs Gillingham 8
Strong positive
Goals AgainstShrewsbury 1.4 vs Gillingham 1.8
Positive
Value Edge67.4% model chance vs 52.4% implied (+15 pts)
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Shrewsbury's recent momentum and superior attacking metrics make them the logical choice to secure victory. Their ability to create and convert chances, combined with a more stable defense, gives them the edge over Gillingham, who have struggled for consistency. This bet aligns well with both tactical and statistical insights.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome analysis

“Shrewsbury's higher shot volume and recent form clearly position them as favorites, but Gillingham's defensive grit means this game could be closer than the suggest.”

Key Data Signals

Shrewsbury to Win evidence

Shrewsbury has a 69% to win, with positive value at 1.91 .

Shrewsbury averages 13.8 shots and 5.2 shots on target per game, significantly higher than Gillingham.

Gillingham concedes more goals on average (1.8) compared to Shrewsbury (1.4).

Recent form favors Shrewsbury with double the points gained in last five matches.

What To Watch In The Data

Shrewsbury to Win notes

  • In the last ten head-to-head matches, the average goals per game is 2.2, with a consistent trend towards matches exceeding 2.5 goals.
  • This suggests a moderate tempo game with opportunities for both teams to score, aligning with the attacking profiles of both sides.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Shrewsbury1.8
Avg goals scored
Gillingham1.4
Shrewsbury1.4
Avg goals conceded
Gillingham1.8
Shrewsbury60%
BTTS rate
Gillingham80%
Shrewsbury60%
Over 2.5 goals
Gillingham60%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 70% vs implied 55% · edge +15 pts
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
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Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 55%
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 73%
1.33
Check odds @ 1.33
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 37%
3.5
Check odds @ 3.5
Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 49%
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
BTTS NoBetUK guide price · model 28%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Both teams have a 60% rate of matches exceeding 2.5 goals, with Gillingham showing an 80% BTTS rate, indicating a likelihood of goals at both ends. This suggests an open game with chances for both teams to score, supporting an attacking contest.

Continue the research

Useful next reads

League Two fixtures and predictionscorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting angleslatest football statsmain football hubtoday's predictionsbest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickShrewsbury to WinBet365 guide price · Model 67% vs implied 52% · edge +15 pts
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
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BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 70%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Shrewsbury Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 77%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 55%
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
The 67.4% for Shrewsbury to Win sits against roughly 52.4% implied by the current price (+15 pts). Shrewsbury have the stronger recent points return, taking 10 points from the sample compared with 5 for Gillingham.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Shrewsbury

DWWLW
Last 53W 1D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 104W 3D 3L
24 Oct 2026A Rotherham3-3
20 Oct 2026A Crawley Town3-2
17 Oct 2026H Bristol Rovers1-0
10 Oct 2026H Exeter City0-1
03 Oct 2026A Grimsby2-1

Gillingham

LDLWD
Last 51W 2D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 104W 3D 3L
24 Oct 2026H Grimsby1-4
20 Oct 2026H Port Vale1-1
17 Oct 2026A Accrington ST1-3
10 Oct 2026A Rotherham4-1
03 Oct 2026H Newport County0-0
Market aligned with main pickShrewsbury to WinBet365 guide price · Model 67% vs implied 52% · edge +15 pts
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
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Shrewsbury Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 77%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 86%
1.22
Check odds @ 1.22
Shrewsbury's recent form is strong with 10 points from the last five matches, showing improved attacking output and defensive solidity. Gillingham's 5 points reflect inconsistency and less offensive threat, which may hinder their ability to challenge effectively in this fixture.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

60%Shrewsbury Over 2.5
60%Gillingham Over 2.5
2.2H2H avg goals
In the last ten head-to-head matches, the average goals per game is 2.2, with a consistent trend towards matches exceeding 2.5 goals. This suggests a moderate tempo game with opportunities for both teams to score, aligning with the attacking profiles of both sides.

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