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SC Braga crestSC Braga
v
Famalicao crestFamalicao

Primeira Liga | Sun 01 Nov, 20:30

SC Braga v Famalicao Stats

Data last updated: Sun 01 Nov 2026, 18:46 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

This Primeira Liga clash features SC Braga hosting Famalicao, with both sides closely matched in the league table and points tally. Famalicao arrives in better recent form, having collected 8 points compared to Braga's 4 in their last five games, showcasing a more potent attack averaging 2.4 goals per match versus Braga's 0.6. Braga's defensive record is slightly better, but their struggle to score at home adds intrigue. The tactical battle will likely hinge on Famalicao's attacking threat and Braga's attempts to regain momentum in front of their fans.

BT4Y best bet

Famalicao to Win

  • Famalicao has earned 8 points in last 5 matches, Braga only 4
  • Famalicao averages 2.4 goals per game recently, Braga 0.6
  • Braga's home scoring struggles contrast with Famalicao's offensive form
  • Famalicao ranks 11th with 10 points, Braga 9th with 11 points
  • Famalicao's recent form and goal threat suggest an upset possibility

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model strongly favors Famalicao to win with a 70% chance, reflecting their superior recent form and attacking output. Despite the 4.5 implying only a 22.2% chance, the model sees significant value given Famalicao's ability to score and accumulate points away from home. Braga's low scoring rate and recent struggles at home further support this view. No price warnings apply, making this a standard stake recommendation based on clear statistical and form advantages.

Model Win Probability70%
Strong positive
Implied Market Chance35% model chance vs 20% implied (+15 pts)
Strong positive
Recent Goals For (Famalicao)2.4 per game
Strong positive
Recent Goals For (Braga)0.6 per game
Negative
Recent Points (Famalicao)8 in last 5
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Famalicao's recent attacking form and points haul away from home provide a compelling case for an upset against Braga, who have struggled to score recently. The data indicates Famalicao's momentum and goal threat could prove decisive in this tightly matched fixture.

Main risk

Premier Sports is identified as a UK viewing option for Braga against Famalicao, although its current UK football schedule does not specify a channel for Sunday's match.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Tactical and form-based analysis

“Famalicao's offensive efficiency and recent momentum make them a credible threat to Braga's defense, suggesting a well-founded chance for an away win despite the .”

Key Data Signals

Famalicao to Win evidence

Famalicao has earned 8 points in last 5 matches, Braga only 4

Famalicao averages 2.4 goals per game recently, Braga 0.6

Braga's home scoring struggles contrast with Famalicao's offensive form

Famalicao ranks 11th with 10 points, Braga 9th with 11 points

What To Watch In The Data

Famalicao to Win notes

  • In the last 10 meetings, the average goals per game is 3.8, indicating a relatively high-scoring fixture history.
  • This trend supports the potential for multiple goals and aligns with Famalicao's recent over 2.5 goals rate, suggesting an open game with scoring opportunities for both sides.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

SC Braga0.6
Avg goals scored
Famalicao2.4
SC Braga1.2
Avg goals conceded
Famalicao1.4
SC Braga40%
BTTS rate
Famalicao60%
SC Braga40%
Over 2.5 goals
Famalicao80%
Best odds for this sectionOver 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 63% vs implied 48% · edge +15 pts
2.08
Check odds @ 2.08
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Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 82%
1.33
Check odds @ 1.33
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 63%
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 42%
3.75
Check odds @ 3.75
Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 40%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
BTTS NoBetUK guide price · model 41%
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
Famalicao's recent matches show a high over 2.5 goals rate (80%) and a 60% BTTS rate, reflecting their attacking style. Braga's lower over 2.5 (40%) and BTTS (40%) rates suggest a more cautious approach, setting up a contest where Famalicao's offense could unlock Braga's defense, increasing goal potential.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickFamalicao to WinBetfred guide price · Model 35% vs implied 20% · edge +15 pts
5
Check odds @ 5
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Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 63%
2.08
Check odds @ 2.08
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 63%
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
Famalicao Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 47%
3.1
Check odds @ 3.1
Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 41%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
The 35% for Famalicao to Win sits against roughly 20% implied by the current price (+15 pts). Famalicao have the stronger recent points return, taking 8 points from the sample compared with 4 for SC Braga. Both clubs have conceded 11 goals and kept three clean sheets across nine Primeira Liga games.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

SC Braga

LLLDW
Last 51W 1D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 2D 4L
25 Oct 2026A Nacional0-1
19 Oct 2026H GIL Vicente1-2
09 Oct 2026H Sporting CP1-3
20 Sep 2026A Santa Clara0-0
14 Sep 2026H Estoril1-0

Famalicao

WLWDD
Last 52W 2D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 4D 3L
25 Oct 2026A Rio Ave4-0
12 Oct 2026H Alverca1-4
19 Sep 2026A Nacional4-0
13 Sep 2026H Sporting CP1-1
05 Sep 2026A Estrela2-2
Market aligned with main pickFamalicao to WinBetfred guide price · Model 35% vs implied 20% · edge +15 pts
5
Check odds @ 5
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Away / DrawBet365 guide price · model 64%
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
Famalicao Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 47%
3.1
Check odds @ 3.1
Famalicao's recent form is markedly stronger, securing 8 points in their last five outings compared to Braga's 4. Their offensive productivity (2.4 goals per game) contrasts sharply with Braga's 0.6, indicating Famalicao's momentum and could be decisive in this fixture.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

40%SC Braga Over 2.5
80%Famalicao Over 2.5
3.8H2H avg goals
In the last 10 meetings, the average goals per game is 3.8, indicating a relatively high-scoring fixture history. This trend supports the potential for multiple goals and aligns with Famalicao's recent over 2.5 goals rate, suggesting an open game with scoring opportunities for both sides.

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