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SC Braga crestSC Braga
v
Estrela crestEstrela

Primeira Liga | Sat 16 May, 18:00

SC Braga v Estrela Stats

Data last updated: Fri 05 Jun 2026, 07:56 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

SC Braga face Estrela in Primeira Liga on Sat 16 May, 18:00. Braga's unbeaten 18-game streak against Estrela makes them strong favourites despite having secured their fourth-place league finish already. Braga have gone unbeaten in 18 straight Primeira Liga meetings with Estrela Amadora, winning nine and drawing nine.

BT4Y best bet

Over two decades

  • At 1.65, SC Braga Win implies roughly 61%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 70%.
  • Braga’s recent defensive fatigue and Estrela’s need to avoid a large goal difference swing point towards a 2-1 outcome.
  • SC Braga have the stronger recent points return, taking 6 points from the sample compared with 1 for Estrela.
  • SC Braga have the cleaner defensive sample at 1.4 conceded per match, which helps the SC Braga Win angle more than a raw possession edge.
  • SC Braga sit 4 in the table, while Estrela sit 15, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 70% for SC Braga Win sits against roughly 61% implied by the current price. SC Braga have the stronger recent points return, taking 6 points from the sample compared with 1 for Estrela. Braga’s recent defensive fatigue and Estrela’s need to avoid a large goal difference swing point towards a 2-1 outcome.

Model chance vs price70% model chance against roughly 61% implied
Positive
SC Braga have the stronger recent points return, taking 6.Visible data support
Positive
SC Braga have the cleaner defensive sample at 1.4 conceded.Visible data support
Positive
Braga’s recent defensive fatigue and Estrela’s need to avoid.Article support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: SC Braga Win is the preferred angle because braga’s recent defensive fatigue and Estrela’s need to avoid a large goal difference swing point towards a 2-1 outcome. SC Braga have the stronger recent points return, taking 6 points from the sample compared with 1 for Estrela. An eight-goal cushion gives them breathing space, but not comfort.

Main risk

An eight-goal cushion gives them breathing space, but not comfort.

Key Data Signals

SC Braga Win evidence

Braga’s recent defensive fatigue and Estrela’s need to avoid a large goal difference swing point towards a 2-1.

SC Braga have the stronger recent points return, taking 6 points from the sample compared with 1 for Estrela.

SC Braga have the cleaner defensive sample at 1.4 conceded per match, which helps the SC Braga Win angle more than a raw possession edge.

SC Braga sit 4 in the table, while Estrela sit 15, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

What To Watch In The Data

SC Braga Win notes

    Market odds

    Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

    Market aligned with main pickSC Braga to WinBetfred guide price · Model 70% vs implied 61% · edge +9.4 pts
    1.65
    Check odds @ 1.65
    Load more odds for this section
    BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 70%
    1.8
    Check odds @ 1.8
    SC Braga Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 78%
    1.35
    Check odds @ 1.35
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 57%
    1.8
    Check odds @ 1.8
    SC Braga to Win is positive value at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
    Goals, BTTS and over/under

    Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

    SC Braga1.4
    Avg goals scored
    Estrela0.6
    SC Braga1.4
    Avg goals conceded
    Estrela1.4
    SC Braga80%
    BTTS rate
    Estrela40%
    SC Braga60%
    Over 2.5 goals
    Estrela40%
    Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetfred guide price · Model 70% vs implied 56% · edge +14.4 pts
    1.8
    Check odds @ 1.8
    Load more odds for this section
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 57%
    1.8
    Check odds @ 1.8
    Over 1.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 75%
    1.22
    Check odds @ 1.22
    Over 3.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 39%
    2.75
    Check odds @ 2.75
    Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 48%
    2
    Check odds @ 2
    BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 34%
    1.95
    Check odds @ 1.95
    Recent form

    Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

    SC Braga

    DDLWD
    Last 51W 3D 1L
    Last 5 record
    Last 104W 4D 2L
    11 May 2026A Benfica2-2
    03 May 2026H Estoril1-1
    26 Apr 2026A Santa Clara1-2
    23 Apr 2026A Casa Pia1-0
    19 Apr 2026H Famalicao2-2

    Estrela

    DLLLL
    Last 50W 1D 4L
    Last 5 record
    Last 101W 3D 6L
    11 May 2026H Famalicao0-0
    02 May 2026A Moreirense2-3
    26 Apr 2026H FC Porto1-2
    19 Apr 2026A Arouca0-1
    11 Apr 2026H Sporting CP0-1
    Market aligned with main pickSC Braga to WinBetfred guide price · Model 70% vs implied 61% · edge +9.4 pts
    1.65
    Check odds @ 1.65
    Load more odds for this section
    SC Braga Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 78%
    1.35
    Check odds @ 1.35
    Home / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 86%
    1.14
    Check odds @ 1.14
    Corners, cards and shots

    Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

    SC Braga3.6
    Avg corners for
    Estrela2.8
    SC Braga8
    Avg total corners
    Estrela9.6
    SC Braga3.2
    Avg yellow cards
    Estrela2.8
    SC Braga7.2
    Avg shots
    Estrela9.8
    Best odds for this sectionOver 9.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · Model 50% vs implied 55% · edge -4.8 pts
    1.83
    Check odds @ 1.83
    Over 9.5 Corners needs a clear match pattern behind it. For corners, that means territory, wide deliveries and blocked shots; for cards, it means duels and transition fouls; for shots, it means repeat box entries rather than harmless possession.
    Player stats

    Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

    Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

    Open Match Centre player odds

    Head-to-head

    Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

    3SC Braga wins
    3Draws
    0Estrela wins
    03 Jan 2026Estrela v SC Braga3-3
    19 Jan 2025Estrela v SC Braga0-1
    11 Aug 2024SC Braga v Estrela1-1
    02 Mar 2024SC Braga v Estrela3-0
    28 Sep 2023Estrela v SC Braga2-4
    13 Jul 2021Estrela v SC Braga0-0
    Market aligned with main pickSC Braga to WinBetfred guide price · Model 70% vs implied 61% · edge +9.4 pts
    1.65
    Check odds @ 1.65
    Load more odds for this section
    BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 70%
    1.8
    Check odds @ 1.8
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 57%
    1.8
    Check odds @ 1.8
    The head-to-head sample gives context for SC Braga to Win, but it should not overrule the current tactical picture. If previous meetings show goals or momentum swings, they support the market only when the present form and line-ups point to the same game state.
    Season team stats

    Primeira Liga

    SC Braga34
    Played
    Estrela34
    SC Braga1.9
    Avg goals for
    Estrela1.1
    SC Braga1.1
    Avg goals against
    Estrela1.6
    SC Braga12
    Clean sheets
    Estrela8
    Market aligned with main pickSC Braga to WinBetfred guide price · Model 70% vs implied 61% · edge +9.4 pts
    1.65
    Check odds @ 1.65
    Load more odds for this section
    SC Braga Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 78%
    1.35
    Check odds @ 1.35
    Season data supports SC Braga to Win when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.
    League standings snapshot

    Current table context.

    PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
    4SC Braga59341611728
    15Estrela303461216-18
    SC Braga sit in position 4, while Estrela sit in position 15, so table pressure belongs in the SC Braga Win assessment.
    Key match trends

    Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

    60%SC Braga Over 2.5
    40%Estrela Over 2.5
    3H2H avg goals
    The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: SC Braga sit at 60% and Estrela sit at 40% with the H2H average at 3 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

    Related football research

    Fixture links

    Prediction context

    SC Braga v Estrela prediction

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    Betting context

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