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SC Braga crestSC Braga
v
Estrela crestEstrela

Primeira Liga | Sun 31 Jan, 16:00

SC Braga v Estrela Stats

Data last updated: Sat 24 Oct 2026, 17:19 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

SC Braga face Estrela in Primeira Liga on Sun 31 Jan, 16:00. Braga's unbeaten 18-game streak against Estrela makes them strong favourites despite having secured their fourth-place league finish already. Braga have gone unbeaten in 18 straight Primeira Liga meetings with Estrela Amadora, winning nine and drawing nine.

BT4Y best bet

Over two decades

  • Over two decades is rated around 36% by the current BT4Y model.
  • Braga’s recent defensive fatigue and Estrela’s need to avoid a large goal difference swing point towards a 2-1 outcome.
  • Estrela have the stronger recent points return, taking 5 points from the sample compared with 4 for SC Braga.
  • SC Braga have the cleaner defensive sample at 1.4 conceded per match, which helps the Over two decades angle more than a raw possession edge.
  • SC Braga sit 9 in the table, while Estrela sit 10, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model rates Over two decades around 36% on the latest available numbers. Estrela have the stronger recent points return, taking 5 points from the sample compared with 4 for SC Braga. Braga’s recent defensive fatigue and Estrela’s need to avoid a large goal difference swing point towards a 2-1 outcome.

Estrela have the stronger recent points return, taking 5 points.Visible data support
Positive
SC Braga have the cleaner defensive sample at 1.4 conceded.Visible data support
Positive
Braga’s recent defensive fatigue and Estrela’s need to avoid.Article support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: SC Braga Win is the preferred angle because braga’s recent defensive fatigue and Estrela’s need to avoid a large goal difference swing point towards a 2-1 outcome. Estrela have the stronger recent points return, taking 5 points from the sample compared with 4 for SC Braga. An eight-goal cushion gives them breathing space, but not comfort.

Main risk

An eight-goal cushion gives them breathing space, but not comfort.

Key Data Signals

Over two decades evidence

Braga’s recent defensive fatigue and Estrela’s need to avoid a large goal difference swing point towards a 2-1.

Estrela have the stronger recent points return, taking 5 points from the sample compared with 4 for SC Braga.

SC Braga have the cleaner defensive sample at 1.4 conceded per match, which helps the SC Braga Win angle more than a raw possession edge.

SC Braga sit 9 in the table, while Estrela sit 10, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

What To Watch In The Data

Over two decades notes

    Goals, BTTS and over/under

    Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

    SC Braga0.8
    Avg goals scored
    Estrela1.4
    SC Braga1.4
    Avg goals conceded
    Estrela1.8
    SC Braga60%
    BTTS rate
    Estrela60%
    SC Braga60%
    Over 2.5 goals
    Estrela60%

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    Market odds

    Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

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    Recent form

    Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

    SC Braga

    LLDWL
    Last 51W 1D 3L
    Last 5 record
    Last 103W 2D 3L
    19 Oct 2026H GIL Vicente1-2
    09 Oct 2026H Sporting CP1-3
    20 Sep 2026A Santa Clara0-0
    14 Sep 2026H Estoril1-0
    10 Sep 2026A Estrela1-2

    Estrela

    LLDWD
    Last 51W 2D 2L
    Last 5 record
    Last 102W 4D 2L
    11 Oct 2026A Arouca0-1
    20 Sep 2026H Academico Viseu0-2
    14 Sep 2026A Rio Ave3-3
    10 Sep 2026H SC Braga2-1
    05 Sep 2026H Famalicao2-2

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    Key match trends

    Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

    60%SC Braga Over 2.5
    60%Estrela Over 2.5
    3.13H2H avg goals
    The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: SC Braga sit at 60% and Estrela sit at 60% with the H2H average at 3.13 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

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