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Sassuolo crestSassuolo
v
Lecce crestLecce

Serie A | Sun 17 May, 19:45

Sassuolo v Lecce Stats

Data last updated: Sun 07 Jun 2026, 09:40 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Sassuolo face Lecce in Serie A on Sun 17 May, 19:45. Sassuolo come in with 7 recent points and 1.2 goals per match, while Lecce have 5 points and 0.6 goals per match in the same lens.

BT4Y best bet

Sassuolo to Win

  • At 2.62, Sassuolo Win implies roughly 38%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 56%.
  • Sassuolo have the stronger recent points return, taking 7 points from the sample compared with 5 for Lecce.
  • Sassuolo have the cleaner defensive sample at 1 conceded per match, which helps the Sassuolo Win angle more than a raw possession edge.
  • Sassuolo sit 11 in the table, while Lecce sit 17, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 56% for Sassuolo Win sits against roughly 38% implied by the current price. Sassuolo have the stronger recent points return, taking 7 points from the sample compared with 5 for Lecce.

Model chance vs price56% model chance against roughly 38% implied
Strong positive
Sassuolo have the stronger recent points return, taking 7 points.Visible data support
Positive
Sassuolo have the cleaner defensive sample at 1 conceded per.Visible data support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Sassuolo Win is the preferred angle because the market is supported by the current team numbers Sassuolo have the stronger recent points return, taking 7 points from the sample compared with 5 for Lecce. Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Key Data Signals

Sassuolo Win evidence

Sassuolo have the stronger recent points return, taking 7 points from the sample compared with 5 for Lecce.

Sassuolo have the cleaner defensive sample at 1 conceded per match, which helps the Sassuolo Win angle more than a raw possession edge.

Sassuolo sit 11 in the table, while Lecce sit 17, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

What To Watch In The Data

Sassuolo Win notes

    Corners, cards and shots

    Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

    Sassuolo3.8
    Avg corners for
    Lecce3.4
    Sassuolo9.8
    Avg total corners
    Lecce8.4
    Sassuolo2.6
    Avg yellow cards
    Lecce2.4
    Sassuolo12.6
    Avg shots
    Lecce9.4
    Best odds for this sectionOver 4.5 CardsBetfred guide price · Model 64% vs implied 46% · edge +18 pts
    2.2
    Check odds @ 2.2
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    Over 9.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 46%
    1.92
    Check odds @ 1.92
    Over 4.5 Cards needs a clear match pattern behind it. For corners, that means territory, wide deliveries and blocked shots; for cards, it means duels and transition fouls; for shots, it means repeat box entries rather than harmless possession.

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    Useful next reads

    Serie A hubcorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting anglesfootball stats hubfootball hubfootball predictions hubbest bets researchacca fixture filtering
    Goals, BTTS and over/under

    Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

    Sassuolo1.2
    Avg goals scored
    Lecce0.6
    Sassuolo1
    Avg goals conceded
    Lecce1
    Sassuolo60%
    BTTS rate
    Lecce40%
    Sassuolo60%
    Over 2.5 goals
    Lecce20%
    Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 60% vs implied 56% · edge +4.4 pts
    1.8
    Check odds @ 1.8
    Load more odds for this section
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 49%
    2.1
    Check odds @ 2.1
    Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 55%
    1.73
    Check odds @ 1.73
    Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 67%
    1.33
    Check odds @ 1.33
    Over 3.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 31%
    3.75
    Check odds @ 3.75
    BTTS NoBetUK guide price · model 44%
    1.95
    Check odds @ 1.95
    BTTS Yes is more of a watchlist angle than a must-bet: the BTTS rates are 60% for Sassuolo and 40% for Lecce, so the price depends on both attacks contributing rather than the clean-sheet story.
    Player stats

    Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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    Open Match Centre player odds

    Market odds

    Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

    Market aligned with main pickSassuolo to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 56% vs implied 38% · edge +17.7 pts
    2.62
    Check odds @ 2.62
    Load more odds for this section
    Sassuolo Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 65%
    1.82
    Check odds @ 1.82
    BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 60%
    1.8
    Check odds @ 1.8
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 49%
    2.1
    Check odds @ 2.1
    Sassuolo to Win is positive value at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
    Recent form

    Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

    Sassuolo

    LWDWL
    Last 52W 1D 2L
    Last 5 record
    Last 104W 2D 4L
    08 May 2026A Torino1-2
    03 May 2026H AC Milan2-0
    26 Apr 2026A Fiorentina0-0
    17 Apr 2026H Como2-1
    12 Apr 2026A Genoa1-2

    Lecce

    LWDDL
    Last 51W 2D 2L
    Last 5 record
    Last 102W 2D 6L
    09 May 2026H Juventus0-1
    01 May 2026A Pisa2-1
    25 Apr 2026A Hellas Verona0-0
    20 Apr 2026H Fiorentina1-1
    12 Apr 2026A Bologna0-2
    Market aligned with main pickSassuolo to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 56% vs implied 38% · edge +17.7 pts
    2.62
    Check odds @ 2.62
    Load more odds for this section
    Home / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 82%
    1.3
    Check odds @ 1.3
    Sassuolo Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 65%
    1.82
    Check odds @ 1.82
    Head-to-head

    Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

    4Sassuolo wins
    3Draws
    1Lecce wins
    18 Oct 2025Lecce v Sassuolo0-0
    24 Sep 2024Lecce v Sassuolo0-2
    21 Apr 2024Sassuolo v Lecce0-3
    06 Oct 2023Lecce v Sassuolo1-1
    25 Feb 2023Lecce v Sassuolo0-1
    20 Aug 2022Sassuolo v Lecce1-0
    Market aligned with main pickSassuolo to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 56% vs implied 38% · edge +17.7 pts
    2.62
    Check odds @ 2.62
    Load more odds for this section
    BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 60%
    1.8
    Check odds @ 1.8
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 49%
    2.1
    Check odds @ 2.1
    The head-to-head sample gives context for Sassuolo to Win, but it should not overrule the current tactical picture. If previous meetings show goals or momentum swings, they support the market only when the present form and line-ups point to the same game state.
    Season team stats

    Serie A

    Sassuolo38
    Played
    Lecce38
    Sassuolo1.2
    Avg goals for
    Lecce0.7
    Sassuolo1.3
    Avg goals against
    Lecce1.3
    Sassuolo8
    Clean sheets
    Lecce10
    Market aligned with main pickSassuolo to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 56% vs implied 38% · edge +17.7 pts
    2.62
    Check odds @ 2.62
    Load more odds for this section
    Sassuolo Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 65%
    1.82
    Check odds @ 1.82
    Season data supports Sassuolo to Win when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.
    League standings snapshot

    Current table context.

    PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
    11Sassuolo493814717-4
    17Lecce383810820-22
    Sassuolo sit in position 11, while Lecce sit in position 17, so table pressure belongs in the Sassuolo Win assessment.
    Key match trends

    Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

    60%Sassuolo Over 2.5
    20%Lecce Over 2.5
    2.38H2H avg goals
    The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Sassuolo sit at 60% and Lecce sit at 20% with the H2H average at 2.38 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

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    Betting context

    Start with the clearest numbers above, then check live odds, team news and the full prediction before staking.

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