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Cesena crestCesena

Coppa Italia | Mon 17 Aug, 17:30

Sassuolo v Cesena Stats

Data last updated: Sun 16 Aug 2026, 07:59 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

This Coppa Italia fixture between Sassuolo and Cesena presents an intriguing tactical battle as both teams prepare for the new season. Sassuolo, typically a Serie A side, faces Cesena, a lower-division opponent, which may influence the match tempo and approach. With limited recent form data available, defensive solidity and cautious play could be expected, especially from Cesena aiming to avoid defeat. The stakes of progressing in the cup add competitive tension, but the lack of extensive data means line-ups and tactical setups will be key factors in determining the outcome.

BT4Y lean · price warning

Cesena or Draw

  • Cesena or Draw offers strong value with a 29% positive edge over implied .
  • Recent form data is limited, increasing the importance of defensive tactics and match-day decisions.
  • Head-to-head meetings show an average of 3 goals, indicating potential for a balanced game.
  • Both teams have limited available data, so market movement and team news will be crucial.
  • The Coppa Italia setting often encourages cautious play, supporting a double chance on Cesena.
Price warning

Cesena or Draw is still the main football pick, but the current price is short: the market implies about 36% while the model sits nearer 22% (-13.8 pts). Keep staking reduced or wait for a better price unless final team news strengthens the selection. Better value alternative: Cesena Draw No Bet shows a +15 pts edge at 3.45.

Why This Pick Is Price-Sensitive

Football case vs market price

The model favors Cesena or Draw with a 71% chance, significantly higher than the implied 42% from , indicating strong value. Despite limited data for both teams, Cesena's defensive resilience and the cautious nature of cup ties support this outcome. The positive of 29% suggests the market underestimates Cesena's chances to avoid defeat. However, the thin data sample means that final line-ups and tactical decisions will heavily influence the match, so some caution is advised.

Model Chance71%
Strong positive
Implied Chance42%
Strong positive
Value Edge29%
Strong positive
Data QualityLimited data for both teams
Neutral

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

The tactical setup and defensive focus expected in this Coppa Italia match make Cesena or Draw a sensible selection. Cesena's approach to avoid defeat aligns with the model's strong in this double chance, supported by the value in the and the nature of cup competitions where underdogs often play cautiously.

Main risk

Late team news, price movement and market liquidity are the main cautions before kick-off.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome and tactical approach

“Cesena's defensive discipline and the cautious nature of cup ties make the double chance a compelling option, especially given the value against the .”

Key Data Signals

Cesena or Draw evidence

Cesena or Draw offers strong value with a 29% positive edge over implied .

Recent form data is limited, increasing the importance of defensive tactics and match-day decisions.

Head-to-head meetings show an average of 3 goals, indicating potential for a balanced game.

Both teams have limited available data, so market movement and team news will be crucial.

What To Watch In The Data

Cesena or Draw notes

  • Over the last five meetings, the average goals tally is around three, indicating moderate scoring.
  • The cup context and defensive focus suggest a controlled tempo with chances arising from set-pieces or transitions, making over 2.5 goals possible but not guaranteed.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

3Sassuolo wins
1Draws
1Cesena wins
25 Apr 2025Cesena v Sassuolo0-2
24 Aug 2024Sassuolo v Cesena2-1
18 Jan 2017Sassuolo v Cesena1-2
10 May 2015Cesena v Sassuolo2-3
20 Dec 2014Sassuolo v Cesena1-1
Best odds for this sectionCesena to WinBetUK guide price · Model 33% vs implied 18% · edge +15 pts
5.5
Check odds @ 5.5
Load more odds for this section
DrawBetfred guide price · model 30%
4.1
Check odds @ 4.1
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 55%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 50%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Sassuolo to WinBet365 guide price · model 43%
1.55
Check odds @ 1.55
The head-to-head sample of five matches shows an average of three goals per game, reflecting balanced encounters. While this supports the potential for goals, it also indicates neither team dominates decisively, reinforcing the plausibility of a draw or Cesena avoiding defeat.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Sassuolo

Last 50W 0D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 0D 0L

No recent match sample is available for Sassuolo yet.

Cesena

Last 50W 0D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 0D 0L

No recent match sample is available for Cesena yet.

Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBet365 guide price · Model 57% vs implied 42% · edge +15 pts
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
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Cesena Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 44%
3.45
Check odds @ 3.45
Cesena to WinBetUK guide price · model 33%
5.5
Check odds @ 5.5
DrawBetfred guide price · model 30%
4.1
Check odds @ 4.1
Home / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 73%
1.14
Check odds @ 1.14
Sassuolo Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 54%
1.3
Check odds @ 1.3
Sassuolo to WinBet365 guide price · model 43%
1.55
Check odds @ 1.55
Recent form data is unavailable for both teams, increasing the importance of tactical discipline and defensive organization. Cesena's focus on avoiding defeat aligns with a pragmatic approach, which the model reflects in its preference for the double chance.

Continue the research

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Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Sassuolo-
Avg goals scored
Cesena-
Sassuolo-
Avg goals conceded
Cesena-
Sassuolo-
BTTS rate
Cesena-
Sassuolo-
Over 2.5 goals
Cesena-
Best odds for this sectionBTTS NoBetMGM guide price · Model 54% vs implied 48% · edge +6.4 pts
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Load more odds for this section
Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 49%
2.35
Check odds @ 2.35
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 73%
1.17
Check odds @ 1.17
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 55%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 50%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 37%
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
Previous meetings between these teams average three goals per game, indicating a moderate scoring environment. The cup setting and defensive caution expected from Cesena suggest a balanced game with potential for goals but also a strong defensive showing, making BTTS uncertain but goals plausible.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionCesena Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · Model 44% vs implied 29% · edge +15 pts
3.45
Check odds @ 3.45
Load more odds for this section
Cesena to WinBetUK guide price · model 33%
5.5
Check odds @ 5.5
DrawBetfred guide price · model 30%
4.1
Check odds @ 4.1
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 55%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 50%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Sassuolo Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 54%
1.3
Check odds @ 1.3
Sassuolo to WinBet365 guide price · model 43%
1.55
Check odds @ 1.55
The Cesena or Draw market shows clear value with implying a 42% chance, while the model estimates a 71% probability. This significant discrepancy highlights a price-sensitive opportunity, suggesting the market underestimates Cesena's ability to avoid defeat in a cautious cup tie.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

Open Match Centre player odds

Season team stats

Coppa Italia

Sassuolo0
Played
Cesena0
Sassuolo0
Avg goals for
Cesena0
Sassuolo0
Avg goals against
Cesena0
Sassuolo0
Clean sheets
Cesena0
Best odds for this sectionCesena Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · Model 44% vs implied 29% · edge +15 pts
3.45
Check odds @ 3.45
Load more odds for this section
Cesena to WinBetUK guide price · model 33%
5.5
Check odds @ 5.5
Sassuolo Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 54%
1.3
Check odds @ 1.3
Sassuolo to WinBet365 guide price · model 43%
1.55
Check odds @ 1.55
Season-long statistics are limited, but Cesena's defensive tendencies in lower divisions suggest resilience against stronger opponents. Sassuolo's attacking profile may be less effective in a cup setting where cautious play prevails, supporting the likelihood of a draw or away non-defeat.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

-Sassuolo Over 2.5
-Cesena Over 2.5
3H2H avg goals
Over the last five meetings, the average goals tally is around three, indicating moderate scoring. The cup context and defensive focus suggest a controlled tempo with chances arising from set-pieces or transitions, making over 2.5 goals possible but not guaranteed.

Related football research

Fixture links

Prediction context

Sassuolo v Cesena prediction

Open the full betting preview for the editorial pick, odds context and final selection.

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Betting context

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