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Cesena crestCesena

Coppa Italia | Mon 17 Aug, 17:30

Sassuolo v Cesena Stats

Data last updated: Tue 08 Sep 2026, 18:40 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Sassuolo face Cesena in Coppa Italia on Mon 17 Aug, 17:30. Sassuolo have failed to win their last five friendlies after opening pre-season with a 4-1 victory over Padova, leaving Aquilani without positive momentum before his first competitive fixture. Alessandro Diamanti has overseen four wins and a draw from five friendlies, all without conceding.

BT4Y lean · price warning

Sassuolo to win and Both Teams to Score

  • Price warning: current odds imply about 36%, above the 22% model chance, so this is a football-led pick rather than a clear value bet; reduce stake or wait for a better price.
  • At 9/5, Sassuolo to win and Both Teams to Score implies roughly 36%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 22%.
  • A 2-1 scoreline fits the teams' contrasting profiles, with Sassuolo's forwards capable of scoring twice and Cesena likely to capitalize on defensive absences.
Price warning

Sassuolo to win and Both Teams to Score is still the main football pick, but the current price is short: the market implies about 36% while the model sits nearer 22% (-13.8 pts). Keep staking reduced or wait for a better price unless final team news strengthens the selection. Better value alternative: Cesena Draw No Bet shows a +15 pts edge at 3.45.

Why This Pick Is Price-Sensitive

Football case vs market price

The 22% for Sassuolo to win and Both Teams to Score sits against roughly 36% implied by the current price. A 2-1 scoreline fits the teams' contrasting profiles, with Sassuolo's forwards capable of scoring twice and Cesena likely to capitalize on defensive absences.

Model chance vs price22% model chance against roughly 36% implied
Negative
A 2-1 scoreline fits the teams' contrasting profiles.Article support
Positive
Price sensitivityEdge -13.8 pts
Neutral

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Sassuolo Win & BTTS is the preferred angle because a 2-1 scoreline fits the teams' contrasting profiles, with Sassuolo's forwards capable of scoring twice and Cesena likely to capitalize on defensive absences for a single goal, though exact score. Late team news, price movement and market liquidity are the main cautions before kick-off.

Main risk

Late team news, price movement and market liquidity are the main cautions before kick-off.

Key Data Signals

Sassuolo to win and Both Teams to Score evidence

A 2-1 scoreline fits the teams' contrasting profiles, with Sassuolo's forwards capable of scoring twice and Cesena likely.

What To Watch In The Data

Sassuolo to win and Both Teams to Score notes

  • Use the article-led angle and the visible data together; the strongest signal is where both point to the same match pattern.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

3Sassuolo wins
1Draws
1Cesena wins
25 Apr 2025Cesena v Sassuolo0-2
24 Aug 2024Sassuolo v Cesena2-1
18 Jan 2017Sassuolo v Cesena1-2
10 May 2015Cesena v Sassuolo2-3
20 Dec 2014Sassuolo v Cesena1-1
Market aligned with main pickSassuolo to WinBet365 guide price · Model 43% vs implied 68% · edge -24.6 pts
1.48
Check odds @ 1.48
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Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 55%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 50%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
The head-to-head sample gives context for Sassuolo to Win, but it should not overrule the current tactical picture. If previous meetings show goals or momentum swings, they support the market only when the present form and line-ups point to the same game state.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Sassuolo

Last 50W 0D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 0D 0L

No recent match sample is available for Sassuolo yet.

Cesena

Last 50W 0D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 0D 0L

No recent match sample is available for Cesena yet.

Market aligned with main pickHome / DrawBetMGM guide price · Model 73% vs implied 89% · edge -16.3 pts
1.12
Check odds @ 1.12
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Sassuolo Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 54%
1.3
Check odds @ 1.3
Sassuolo to WinBet365 guide price · model 43%
1.48
Check odds @ 1.48
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Sassuolo-
Avg goals scored
Cesena-
Sassuolo-
Avg goals conceded
Cesena-
Sassuolo-
BTTS rate
Cesena-
Sassuolo-
Over 2.5 goals
Cesena-
Best odds for this sectionBTTS NoBetMGM guide price · Model 54% vs implied 48% · edge +6.4 pts
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
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Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 49%
2.35
Check odds @ 2.35
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 73%
1.17
Check odds @ 1.17
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 55%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 50%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 37%
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
BTTS No is more of a watchlist angle than a must-bet; the clean-sheet route needs defensive and away-attacking data to support it.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickSassuolo Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · Model 54% vs implied 77% · edge -23.4 pts
1.3
Check odds @ 1.3
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Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 55%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 50%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Sassuolo to WinBet365 guide price · model 43%
1.48
Check odds @ 1.48
Sassuolo Draw No Bet is price-sensitive at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

Open Match Centre player odds

Season team stats

Coppa Italia

Sassuolo2
Played
Cesena1
Sassuolo2.5
Avg goals for
Cesena0
Sassuolo0.5
Avg goals against
Cesena3
Sassuolo1
Clean sheets
Cesena0
Market aligned with main pickSassuolo Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · Model 54% vs implied 77% · edge -23.4 pts
1.3
Check odds @ 1.3
Load more odds for this section
Sassuolo to WinBet365 guide price · model 43%
1.48
Check odds @ 1.48
Season data supports Sassuolo Draw No Bet when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

-Sassuolo Over 2.5
-Cesena Over 2.5
3H2H avg goals
A 2-1 scoreline fits the teams' contrasting profiles, with Sassuolo's forwards capable of scoring twice and Cesena likely to capitalize on defensive absences for a single goal, though.

Next step

Betting context

Start with the clearest numbers above, then check live odds, team news and the full prediction before staking.