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Sarpsborg 08 FF crestSarpsborg 08 FF
v
Viking crestViking

Eliteserien | Sun 12 Jul, 18:15

Sarpsborg 08 FF v Viking Stats

Data last updated: Sat 11 Jul 2026, 04:24 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Viking enters this Eliteserien clash in strong form, leading the league with 27 points and boasting a potent attack averaging 3 goals per game. Sarpsborg 08 FF, mid-table with 14 points, have struggled defensively, conceding 2 goals per match on average. Viking's tactical approach emphasizes high pressing and quick transitions, leveraging key playmakers to exploit defensive gaps. Sarpsborg's recent matches have seen high-scoring encounters, but Viking's consistent winning momentum and defensive solidity set the stage for an away victory in this competitive fixture.

BT4Y best bet

Viking to Win

  • Viking leads the league with 27 points and a strong recent run.
  • Sarpsborg 08 FF concedes 2 goals per game, showing defensive vulnerability.
  • Viking averages 3 goals per match, indicating strong attacking form.
  • Sarpsborg 08 FF's matches often exceed 2.5 goals, highlighting open play.
  • Viking's key players show high shot and assist rates, boosting scoring chances.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Viking to win with a 70% chance, reflecting their league-leading form and superior goal-scoring and defensive stats. Viking's attack, led by prolific scorer P. Christiansen and creative midfielder Z. Tripić, consistently pressures opponents. Sarpsborg 08 FF's defensive frailties and lower points tally further support Viking's advantage. The data quality is solid for both teams, reinforcing in this selection. The current align well with the model's assessment, indicating a balanced value proposition.

Model Win Probability70%
Strong positive
Viking Attack Strength3 goals per game
Strong positive
Sarpsborg Defensive Weakness2 goals conceded per game
Positive
Recent Form PointsViking 15 vs Sarpsborg 9
Positive
Data QualityComplete for both teams
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Viking's superior form and attacking firepower make them the clear favorite to win this match. Their ability to convert chances, combined with Sarpsborg 08 FF's defensive lapses, suggests Viking will control the game and secure victory. The data strongly supports backing Viking to maintain their top spot with a confident away performance.

Main risk

The main risk is that Sarpsborg 08 FF's home advantage and tendency for high-scoring games could lead to a closer contest or unexpected result.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome

“Viking's blend of clinical finishing and tactical discipline positions them well to overcome Sarpsborg 08 FF, whose defensive vulnerabilities are likely to be exploited by Viking's dynamic attackers.”

Key Data Signals

Viking to Win evidence

Viking leads the league with 27 points and a strong recent run.

Sarpsborg 08 FF concedes 2 goals per game, showing defensive vulnerability.

Viking averages 3 goals per match, indicating strong attacking form.

Sarpsborg 08 FF's matches often exceed 2.5 goals, highlighting open play.

What To Watch In The Data

Viking to Win notes

  • In the last 10 meetings, the average goals scored is 2.2 per game, indicating a moderately open fixture historically.
  • Both teams' recent matches have frequently exceeded 2.5 goals, driven by Sarpsborg's attacking openness and Viking's offensive prowess, suggesting a lively game with multiple scoring opportunities.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Sarpsborg 08 FF4.2
Avg corners for
Viking7
Sarpsborg 08 FF10
Avg total corners
Viking10.2
Sarpsborg 08 FF1.8
Avg yellow cards
Viking2
Sarpsborg 08 FF11.4
Avg shots
Viking14.4
Best odds for this sectionOver 9.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · Model 64% vs implied 67% · edge -2.3 pts
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
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Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 70%
1.28
Check odds @ 1.28
Over 10.5 CornersBet365 guide price
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Viking averages 7 corners per game compared to Sarpsborg's 4.2, reflecting their attacking pressure and territorial control. Viking also averages more shots (14.4) and shots on target (5.2), indicating higher offensive activity. Both teams maintain moderate card counts, with Viking slightly higher in yellows, suggesting a competitive but controlled match environment.

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Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Sarpsborg 08 FF1.6
Avg goals scored
Viking3
Sarpsborg 08 FF2
Avg goals conceded
Viking1
Sarpsborg 08 FF80%
BTTS rate
Viking60%
Sarpsborg 08 FF100%
Over 2.5 goals
Viking80%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 76% vs implied 67% · edge +9.3 pts
1.5
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Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 88%
1.14
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Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 71%
1.5
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Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 53%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Under 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 34%
2.5
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BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 28%
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
Both teams have shown tendencies for goals, with Sarpsborg 08 FF's matches hitting over 2.5 goals 100% of the time recently and Viking at 80%. Sarpsborg also has an 80% BTTS rate, while Viking's is 60%, suggesting a moderately open game with chances at both ends but a slight edge to Viking's defensive resilience.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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Open Match Centre player odds

Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickViking to WinBetUK guide price · Model 70% vs implied 56% · edge +14.4 pts
1.8
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BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 76%
1.5
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Viking Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 76%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 71%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 70%
1.28
Check odds @ 1.28
The Viking to Win market reflects their dominant league position and superior recent form. While are not explicitly provided, the model's 70% win probability suggests the price is reasonable and supported by strong data signals, indicating a solid betting opportunity without significant price sensitivity.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Sarpsborg 08 FF

WWLWL
Last 53W 0D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 2D 5L
29 May 2026A Brann2-1
25 May 2026H Molde2-1
16 May 2026A Valerenga2-3
09 May 2026H Fredrikstad2-1
03 May 2026A Lillestrom0-4

Viking

WWWWW
Last 55W 0D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 109W 0D 1L
24 May 2026A Kristiansund BK2-1
16 May 2026H Start6-3
10 May 2026A KFUM Oslo2-0
01 May 2026H Rosenborg3-0
25 Apr 2026A Fredrikstad2-1
Market aligned with main pickViking to WinBetUK guide price · Model 70% vs implied 56% · edge +14.4 pts
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
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Viking Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 76%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Away / DrawBetfred guide price · model 84%
1.25
Check odds @ 1.25
Viking's recent form is impressive, securing 15 points in their last matches compared to Sarpsborg 08 FF's 9. Viking's higher goal output and tighter defense have translated into consistent wins, while Sarpsborg's form shows vulnerability, particularly in defense, which could be exploited in this fixture.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

2Sarpsborg 08 FF wins
2Draws
6Viking wins
01 Mar 2026Viking v Sarpsborg 08 FF2-0
27 Sep 2025Sarpsborg 08 FF v Viking3-3
09 Jul 2025Sarpsborg 08 FF v Viking1-0
04 May 2025Viking v Sarpsborg 08 FF0-0
27 Oct 2024Sarpsborg 08 FF v Viking1-2
01 Apr 2024Viking v Sarpsborg 08 FF1-0
Market aligned with main pickViking to WinBetUK guide price · Model 70% vs implied 56% · edge +14.4 pts
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
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BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 76%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 71%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
The head-to-head record over 10 matches shows a moderate goal average of 2.2, with Viking generally performing well against Sarpsborg 08 FF. While not overwhelmingly dominant, Viking's past results provide a solid background for their favored status, though recent form and tactical factors carry more weight in this matchup.
Season team stats

Eliteserien

Sarpsborg 08 FF11
Played
Viking10
Sarpsborg 08 FF1.2
Avg goals for
Viking2.9
Sarpsborg 08 FF1.5
Avg goals against
Viking1
Sarpsborg 08 FF1
Clean sheets
Viking4
Market aligned with main pickViking to WinBetUK guide price · Model 70% vs implied 56% · edge +14.4 pts
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
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Viking Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 76%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Over the season, Viking leads in both scoring (3 goals per game) and defensive solidity (1 goal conceded per game), underpinning their top-table status. Sarpsborg 08 FF's season stats reveal a leaky defense conceding twice per match and a modest attack scoring 1.6 goals per game, highlighting the gulf in quality and consistency between the sides.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
1Viking271090119
7Sarpsborg 08 FF1411425-3
Viking sits comfortably atop the Eliteserien standings with 27 points, reflecting their control and consistency. Sarpsborg 08 FF occupies 7th place with 14 points, indicating mid-table stability but lacking the momentum and quality to challenge the leaders, suggesting Viking's motivation to maintain their lead will be high.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

100%Sarpsborg 08 FF Over 2.5
80%Viking Over 2.5
2.2H2H avg goals
In the last 10 meetings, the average goals scored is 2.2 per game, indicating a moderately open fixture historically. Both teams' recent matches have frequently exceeded 2.5 goals, driven by Sarpsborg's attacking openness and Viking's offensive prowess, suggesting a lively game with multiple scoring opportunities.

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