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Sarpsborg 08 FF crestSarpsborg 08 FF
v
Rosenborg crestRosenborg

Eliteserien | Sun 18 Oct, 13:30

Sarpsborg 08 FF v Rosenborg Stats

Data last updated: Sat 17 Oct 2026, 09:10 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Sarpsborg 08 FF hosts Rosenborg in an Eliteserien clash where attacking intent is clear from both sides. Rosenborg ranks higher and boasts a potent offense averaging 3 goals per game recently, while Sarpsborg 08 FF also contributes to high-scoring affairs with 1.6 goals per match. Both teams have shown a strong tendency for open play and goal-rich encounters, with recent form highlighting frequent matches exceeding 2.5 goals. This fixture promises an open, end-to-end contest with multiple scoring opportunities expected.

BT4Y best bet

Over 3.5 Goals

  • Rosenborg averages 3 goals per game with 80% of matches over 2.5 goals.
  • Sarpsborg 08 FF scores 1.6 goals per game and concedes 1.6, indicating open games.
  • Both teams have an 80% BTTS rate, suggesting goals from both sides.
  • Average shots per game are high: Rosenborg 16.8 and Sarpsborg 08 FF 13.8, supporting attacking play.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model rates Over 3.5 Goals at 54.4% chance, reflecting the attacking strengths and defensive vulnerabilities of both teams. Rosenborg's high goal output and Sarpsborg 08 FF's openness in defense create a fertile environment for multiple goals. The strong recent form data, with both teams frequently involved in high-scoring matches, supports this. The current of 2.2 offer positive value given the model's edge of 8.9%. No data limitations affect , making this a solid selection for goal-hungry bettors.

Model Chance54.4% model chance vs 45.5% implied (+8.9 pts)
Strong positive
Recent Over 2.5 RateSarpsborg 60%, Rosenborg 80%
Strong positive
BTTS RateBoth teams 80%
Strong positive
Shots per GameHigh average shots (Sarpsborg 13.8, Rosenborg 16.8)
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Expect an open and attacking game where both Sarpsborg 08 FF and Rosenborg push forward aggressively. Rosenborg's offensive firepower combined with Sarpsborg's tendency to concede goals suggests a match likely to exceed 3.5 goals. The recent form and shot volumes underline the potential for multiple scoring opportunities, making Over 3.5 Goals a compelling choice.

Main risk

A slower tempo or weaker chance quality would make the goals market harder to justify at the current price.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match attacking dynamics and goal potential

“This fixture features two teams with strong attacking profiles and less defensive rigidity, setting the stage for a high-scoring encounter. Rosenborg's key attackers and Sarpsborg's openness should combine to produce plenty of goalmouth action.”

Key Data Signals

Over 3.5 Goals evidence

Rosenborg averages 3 goals per game with 80% of matches over 2.5 goals.

Sarpsborg 08 FF scores 1.6 goals per game and concedes 1.6, indicating open games.

Both teams have an 80% BTTS rate, suggesting goals from both sides.

Average shots per game are high: Rosenborg 16.8 and Sarpsborg 08 FF 13.8, supporting attacking play.

What To Watch In The Data

Over 3.5 Goals notes

  • In the last 10 head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 4, well above 2.5, indicating a historical trend of high-scoring encounters.
  • This trend, combined with recent form and attacking styles, supports expectations for a goal-rich game in this fixture.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Sarpsborg 08 FF1.6
Avg goals scored
Rosenborg3
Sarpsborg 08 FF1.6
Avg goals conceded
Rosenborg1.8
Sarpsborg 08 FF80%
BTTS rate
Rosenborg80%
Sarpsborg 08 FF60%
Over 2.5 goals
Rosenborg80%
Market aligned with main pickOver 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · Model 54% vs implied 46% · edge +8.9 pts
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
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BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 76%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 88%
1.14
Check odds @ 1.14
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 72%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 32%
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 28%
2.62
Check odds @ 2.62
Both teams have an 80% BTTS rate, indicating a strong likelihood of goals at both ends. Sarpsborg 08 FF and Rosenborg frequently participate in high-scoring games, with recent matches often exceeding 2.5 goals. This suggests a game with open play and multiple scoring chances.

Continue the research

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionRosenborg Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · Model 66% vs implied 51% · edge +15 pts
1.98
Check odds @ 1.98
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BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 76%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
Rosenborg to WinBetfred guide price · model 54%
2.6
Check odds @ 2.6
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 72%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Over 8.5 CornersBetfred guide price · model 73%
1.25
Check odds @ 1.25
Sarpsborg 08 FF Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 45%
1.82
Check odds @ 1.82
DrawBet365 guide price · model 22%
3.7
Check odds @ 3.7
The 54.4% for Over 3.5 Goals sits against roughly 45.5% implied by the current price (+8.9 pts). The Over 2.5 trend is 60% for Sarpsborg 08 FF and 80% for Rosenborg, so the goals angle is not just a price call.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Sarpsborg 08 FF

WLDDD
Last 51W 3D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 5D 3L
11 Oct 2026A Aalesund4-2
18 Sep 2026H KFUM Oslo1-3
13 Sep 2026A Fredrikstad1-1
06 Sep 2026H Valerenga2-2
30 Aug 2026A Tromso0-0

Rosenborg

DWWWL
Last 53W 1D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 107W 1D 2L
10 Oct 2026H Sandefjord1-1
19 Sep 2026A Kristiansund BK3-1
12 Sep 2026H Tromso5-3
05 Sep 2026H Ham-Kam4-0
30 Aug 2026A Bodo/Glimt2-4
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBetMGM guide price · Model 79% vs implied 64% · edge +15 pts
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
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Rosenborg Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 66%
1.98
Check odds @ 1.98
Rosenborg to WinBetfred guide price · model 54%
2.6
Check odds @ 2.6
Sarpsborg 08 FF Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 45%
1.82
Check odds @ 1.82
DrawBet365 guide price · model 22%
3.7
Check odds @ 3.7
Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 49%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Sarpsborg 08 FF to WinBet365 guide price · model 27%
2.35
Check odds @ 2.35
Recent form shows Rosenborg with 10 points and Sarpsborg 08 FF with 6 points from their last matches, both sides involved in games with frequent goals. Rosenborg's 80% over 2.5 goals rate and Sarpsborg's 60% rate reflect consistent scoring and conceding, reinforcing the likelihood of a high-goal match.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

60%Sarpsborg 08 FF Over 2.5
80%Rosenborg Over 2.5
4H2H avg goals
In the last 10 head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 4, well above 2.5, indicating a historical trend of high-scoring encounters. This trend, combined with recent form and attacking styles, supports expectations for a goal-rich game in this fixture.

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