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Sao Paulo crestSao Paulo
v
Vasco DA Gama crestVasco DA Gama

Serie A | Sun 18 Oct, 01:00

Sao Paulo v Vasco DA Gama Stats

Data last updated: Sat 17 Oct 2026, 09:05 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

This Serie A clash features Sao Paulo hosting Vasco DA Gama in a contest where Vasco DA Gama arrives with stronger recent form and a more potent attack. Vasco DA Gama has accumulated 10 points in recent matches compared to Sao Paulo's 6, while also boasting a higher goals-per-game average and a sturdier defensive record. Sao Paulo's struggles to score consistently contrast with Vasco DA Gama's sharper offensive edge, setting up a tactical battle where Vasco DA Gama's momentum and efficiency could prove decisive in this away fixture.

BT4Y best bet

Vasco DA Gama to Win

  • Vasco DA Gama holds a 69.4% to win, offering strong value at 3.7 .
  • Vasco DA Gama averages 1.8 goals per game versus Sao Paulo's 0.8, indicating superior attacking output.
  • Sao Paulo concedes 1.4 goals per game, while Vasco DA Gama concedes only 0.6, highlighting defensive solidity.
  • Vasco DA Gama's players like F. Colidio and Bruno Lopes show high shot and goal threat metrics.
  • Recent form favors Vasco DA Gama with 10 points compared to Sao Paulo's 6 in recent matches.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model strongly favors Vasco DA Gama to win due to their superior recent form, more effective attack, and tighter defense compared to Sao Paulo. Vasco DA Gama's higher average shots and shots on target per game, combined with key players like F. Colidio and Bruno Lopes contributing significantly to goal threat, underpin this . The pricing reflects a positive , making Vasco DA Gama a compelling pick despite the away status. No data limitations affect this assessment, supporting a clear statistical and tactical case.

Model Win Probability69.4%
Strong positive
Implied Market Chance42% model chance vs 27% implied (+15 pts)
Strong positive
Recent Form PointsVasco DA Gama 10 vs Sao Paulo 6
Positive
Goals Per GameVasco DA Gama 1.8 vs Sao Paulo 0.8
Strong positive
Defensive RecordVasco DA Gama concedes 0.6 vs Sao Paulo 1.4
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Vasco DA Gama's recent form and attacking efficiency position them well to claim victory in this Serie A fixture. Their ability to create and convert chances, combined with a solid defensive record, offers a tactical and statistical edge over Sao Paulo, who have struggled to maintain consistent scoring and defensive stability.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome

“Vasco DA Gama's dynamic attacking players and disciplined defense create a strong foundation for an away win, especially given Sao Paulo's inconsistent offensive output and defensive vulnerabilities.”

Key Data Signals

Vasco DA Gama to Win evidence

Vasco DA Gama holds a 69.4% to win, offering strong value at 3.7 .

Vasco DA Gama averages 1.8 goals per game versus Sao Paulo's 0.8, indicating superior attacking output.

Sao Paulo concedes 1.4 goals per game, while Vasco DA Gama concedes only 0.6, highlighting defensive solidity.

Vasco DA Gama's players like F. Colidio and Bruno Lopes show high shot and goal threat metrics.

What To Watch In The Data

Vasco DA Gama to Win notes

  • In the last 10 head-to-head matches, the average goals per game is 3, indicating a tendency for open games with multiple goals.
  • Vasco DA Gama's 60% over 2.5 goals rate in recent matches suggests this fixture could follow that pattern, with both teams contributing to a lively attacking contest.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Sao Paulo0.8
Avg goals scored
Vasco DA Gama1.8
Sao Paulo1.4
Avg goals conceded
Vasco DA Gama0.6
Sao Paulo40%
BTTS rate
Vasco DA Gama40%
Sao Paulo40%
Over 2.5 goals
Vasco DA Gama60%
Best odds for this sectionOver 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 55% vs implied 49% · edge +6 pts
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
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Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 73%
1.33
Check odds @ 1.33
Over 3.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 37%
3.75
Check odds @ 3.75
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 57%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 47%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Under 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 49%
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
Both teams have a 40% BTTS rate, but Vasco DA Gama's higher goals per game (1.8) and Sao Paulo's defensive concessions (1.4 goals against) indicate a reasonable chance for goals from Vasco DA Gama. The over 2.5 goals rate is 60% for Vasco DA Gama, suggesting a moderately open game with scoring potential.

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickVasco DA Gama to WinBet365 guide price · Model 42% vs implied 27% · edge +15 pts
3.7
Check odds @ 3.7
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Vasco DA Gama Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 57%
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 75%
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 55%
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 57%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
The 42% for Vasco DA Gama to Win sits against roughly 27% implied by the current price (+15 pts). Vasco DA Gama have the stronger recent points return, taking 10 points from the sample compared with 6 for Sao Paulo.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Sao Paulo

WLLWL
Last 52W 0D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 104W 1D 5L
11 Oct 2026H Vitoria2-1
08 Oct 2026A Cruzeiro0-2
03 Oct 2026H Santos1-2
20 Sep 2026H Internacional1-0
12 Sep 2026A Palmeiras0-2

Vasco DA Gama

DWWWL
Last 53W 1D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 104W 3D 3L
10 Oct 2026H Remo0-0
08 Oct 2026A Botafogo2-1
20 Sep 2026H Coritiba5-0
12 Sep 2026A Gremio2-1
06 Sep 2026A Fluminense0-1
Market aligned with main pickVasco DA Gama to WinBet365 guide price · Model 42% vs implied 27% · edge +15 pts
3.7
Check odds @ 3.7
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Away / DrawBet365 guide price · model 75%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Vasco DA Gama Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 57%
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
Recent form data shows Vasco DA Gama with 10 points from recent matches compared to Sao Paulo's 6, highlighting Vasco DA Gama's momentum and . Their improved goal scoring and defensive solidity underpin this form advantage, supporting the likelihood of an away win.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

40%Sao Paulo Over 2.5
60%Vasco DA Gama Over 2.5
3H2H avg goals
In the last 10 head-to-head matches, the average goals per game is 3, indicating a tendency for open games with multiple goals. Vasco DA Gama's 60% over 2.5 goals rate in recent matches suggests this fixture could follow that pattern, with both teams contributing to a lively attacking contest.

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