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Santa Fe crestSanta Fe
v
Deportivo Pasto crestDeportivo Pasto

Primera A | Sun 08 Nov, 19:00

Santa Fe v Deportivo Pasto Stats

Data last updated: Sat 07 Nov 2026, 04:35 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

This Primera A clash features Santa Fe hosting Deportivo Pasto in a fixture where both teams have shown modest recent form, each earning six points in their last five matches. Santa Fe, positioned 6th in the standings, aims to leverage home advantage against Deportivo Pasto, who sit 18th and are fighting to climb out of the relegation zone. Both sides have struggled offensively, averaging less than a goal per game recently, suggesting a cautious tactical approach. Deportivo Pasto's resilience and need for points could see them adopt a pragmatic strategy to secure at least a draw away from home.

BT4Y best bet

Deportivo Pasto or Draw

  • Deportivo Pasto or Draw offers strong value with a 71% versus 30.5% implied .
  • Both teams have low recent scoring rates, with 0.8 goals per game each, indicating tight matches.
  • Santa Fe ranks 6th with 28 points; Deportivo Pasto is 18th with 15 points, highlighting contrasting season trajectories.
  • Deportivo Pasto's defensive solidity and recent form support a double chance outcome in their favor or a draw.
  • Key Deportivo Pasto players like A. Estupiñán and J. Bernal provide attacking threat despite overall low scoring trends.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Deportivo Pasto or Draw with a 71% chance, reflecting their defensive resilience and ability to avoid defeat against a mid-table Santa Fe. Both teams have low scoring averages, but Deportivo Pasto's pragmatic approach and key attacking players like A. Estupiñán, who averages 0.75 goals per 90 minutes, provide a solid foundation for at least a draw. The price offers positive value given the implied chance of 30.5%, making this a sensible bet with standard stake guidance. No data limitations affect in this pick.

Model Chance61.5% model chance vs 54.1% implied (+7.4 pts)
Strong positive
Implied Odds61.5% model chance vs 54.1% implied (+7.4 pts)
Strong positive
Recent Scoring Rates0.8 goals per game each
Neutral
Key Player ImpactA. Estupiñán 0.75 goals/90
Positive
Standings GapSanta Fe 6th vs Deportivo Pasto 18th
Neutral

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Deportivo Pasto's defensive discipline and recent form make the double chance a prudent selection. Santa Fe's home advantage is notable, but their modest scoring output and Deportivo Pasto's key attacking players suggest a tight contest where avoiding defeat is realistic for the visitors.

Main risk

Late team news, price movement and market liquidity are the main cautions before kick-off.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Tactical and value insight

“Deportivo Pasto's ability to frustrate opponents and capitalize on limited chances makes the double chance a compelling option, especially given the value on offer against a mid-table Santa Fe side.”

Key Data Signals

Deportivo Pasto or Draw evidence

Deportivo Pasto or Draw offers strong value with a 71% versus 30.5% implied .

Both teams have low recent scoring rates, with 0.8 goals per game each, indicating tight matches.

Santa Fe ranks 6th with 28 points; Deportivo Pasto is 18th with 15 points, highlighting contrasting season trajectories.

Deportivo Pasto's defensive solidity and recent form support a double chance outcome in their favor or a draw.

What To Watch In The Data

Deportivo Pasto or Draw notes

  • In the last 10 head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 2.2, indicating moderate scoring.
  • Both teams' recent Over 2.5 goals rate stands at 40%, suggesting a balanced tempo with occasional goal bursts.
  • This trend supports a match that could be tight but with potential for goals, aligning with the double chance selection.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Santa Fe0.8
Avg goals scored
Deportivo Pasto0.8
Santa Fe1.2
Avg goals conceded
Deportivo Pasto1.2
Santa Fe40%
BTTS rate
Deportivo Pasto20%
Santa Fe40%
Over 2.5 goals
Deportivo Pasto40%
Best odds for this sectionUnder 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · Model 62% vs implied 54% · edge +7.4 pts
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 53%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 51%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 43%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 61%
1.28
Check odds @ 1.28
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 25%
3.4
Check odds @ 3.4
Both teams have averaged only 0.8 goals per game recently, with a 40% Over 2.5 goals rate for each, suggesting matches tend to be low scoring. Deportivo Pasto's BTTS rate is lower at 20%, indicating a tendency for tighter defensive games. This context supports a cautious game with limited goals and a higher likelihood of a draw or narrow result.

Continue the research

Useful next reads

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionDeportivo Pasto Draw No BetBet365 guide price · Model 44% vs implied 29% · edge +15 pts
3.45
Check odds @ 3.45
Load more odds for this section
Deportivo Pasto to WinBet365 guide price · model 26%
9.5
Check odds @ 9.5
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 30%
5
Check odds @ 5
BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 53%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 43%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Over 8.5 CornersBetUK guide price · model 45%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Santa Fe Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 54%
1.3
Check odds @ 1.3
The 61.5% for Deportivo Pasto or Draw sits against roughly 54.1% implied by the current price (+7.4 pts).
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Santa Fe

LLWWL
Last 52W 0D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 106W 0D 4L
04 Nov 2026A Cucuta0-1
30 Oct 2026A Atletico Nacional0-2
27 Oct 2026H Bucaramanga2-1
22 Oct 2026H Jaguares2-1
19 Oct 2026A Llaneros0-1

Deportivo Pasto

WLWLL
Last 52W 0D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 104W 2D 4L
03 Nov 2026H Jaguares2-0
31 Oct 2026A Bucaramanga1-2
26 Oct 2026A Deportes Tolima1-0
23 Oct 2026A Atletico Nacional0-3
20 Oct 2026H Alianza Valledupar0-1
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBet365 guide price · Model 46% vs implied 31% · edge +15 pts
3.28
Check odds @ 3.28
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Deportivo Pasto Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 44%
3.45
Check odds @ 3.45
Deportivo Pasto to WinBet365 guide price · model 26%
9.5
Check odds @ 9.5
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 30%
5
Check odds @ 5
Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 73%
1.14
Check odds @ 1.14
Santa Fe Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 54%
1.3
Check odds @ 1.3
Santa Fe to WinBet365 guide price · model 43%
1.3
Check odds @ 1.3
Both teams have earned six points in their last five matches, reflecting similar recent form. Santa Fe's slightly better league position contrasts with Deportivo Pasto's defensive solidity and ability to grind out results. This parity in form underpins the model's in a double chance outcome favoring Deportivo Pasto or a draw.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

40%Santa Fe Over 2.5
40%Deportivo Pasto Over 2.5
2.2H2H avg goals
In the last 10 head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 2.2, indicating moderate scoring. Both teams' recent Over 2.5 goals rate stands at 40%, suggesting a balanced tempo with occasional goal bursts. This trend supports a match that could be tight but with potential for goals, aligning with the double chance selection.

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