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Sandefjord crestSandefjord
v
Lillestrom crestLillestrom

Eliteserien | Sun 18 Oct, 16:00

Sandefjord v Lillestrom Stats

Data last updated: Sat 17 Oct 2026, 09:10 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Sandefjord hosts Lillestrom in an Eliteserien clash where both teams have shown competitive form recently. Sandefjord has earned 6 points in their last matches, demonstrating resilience at home, while Lillestrom, sitting higher in the table, have collected 7 points but concede more goals on average. The tactical battle will likely hinge on Sandefjord's ability to capitalize on home advantage and defensive solidity against Lillestrom's more aggressive attacking approach. This fixture carries importance for Sandefjord to close the gap on mid-table rivals and avoid slipping further down the standings.

BT4Y best bet

Sandefjord to Win

  • Sandefjord has a 43.8% to win, with around 2.6 offering slight value.
  • Sandefjord averages 14.2 shots per game, indicating offensive activity to support a win.
  • Lillestrom concedes 2 goals per game on average, suggesting defensive vulnerability.
  • Recent form favors Sandefjord with 6 points gained versus Lillestrom's 7, but Sandefjord concedes fewer goals.
  • Head-to-head matches average 3.3 goals, indicating potential for an open game but with Sandefjord's defensive edge.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Sandefjord to win based on their solid home form, better defensive record, and a slight at current . Sandefjord's average of 14.2 shots per game and a more disciplined defensive unit underpin their chances against Lillestrom, who concede more goals and have a higher BTTS rate. The model's 43.8% win probability exceeds the implied market chance, suggesting a positive expected value. No data limitations affect in this pick.

Home Defensive StrengthSandefjord concedes 1 goal per game vs Lillestrom's 2
Strong positive
Offensive ActivitySandefjord averages 14.2 shots per game
Positive
Market Value Edge43.8% model chance vs 38.5% implied (+5.3 pts)
Positive
Recent FormSandefjord earned 6 points recently, competitive with Lillestrom's 7
Neutral
Lillestrom Defensive WeaknessHigher goals conceded and BTTS rate of 60%
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Sandefjord's home advantage and defensive discipline provide a tactical foundation for a win against Lillestrom, who have shown defensive frailties despite their higher league position. The data supports Sandefjord's chances through solid shot volume and a tighter defense, making them a sensible choice for the win in this competitive Eliteserien fixture.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Tactical and defensive solidity

“Sandefjord's ability to control the game defensively while maintaining decent attacking pressure makes them a credible pick for victory here, especially given Lillestrom's defensive lapses and reliance on key forwards.”

Key Data Signals

Sandefjord to Win evidence

Sandefjord has a 43.8% to win, with around 2.6 offering slight value.

Sandefjord averages 14.2 shots per game, indicating offensive activity to support a win.

Lillestrom concedes 2 goals per game on average, suggesting defensive vulnerability.

Recent form favors Sandefjord with 6 points gained versus Lillestrom's 7, but Sandefjord concedes fewer goals.

What To Watch In The Data

Sandefjord to Win notes

  • In the last ten head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 3.3, indicating a tendency for relatively open games with multiple goals.
  • Sandefjord's lower over 2.5 goals rate (40%) compared to Lillestrom's 80% suggests that while Lillestrom often participates in high-scoring games, Sandefjord's defensive approach may temper the overall goal count in this fixture.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Sandefjord1.4
Avg goals scored
Lillestrom1.4
Sandefjord1
Avg goals conceded
Lillestrom2
Sandefjord60%
BTTS rate
Lillestrom60%
Sandefjord40%
Over 2.5 goals
Lillestrom80%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 70% vs implied 67% · edge +3.3 pts
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
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Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 82%
1.17
Check odds @ 1.17
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 64%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
Over 3.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 46%
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 40%
2.35
Check odds @ 2.35
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 34%
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
Both teams have a 60% BTTS rate, but Sandefjord concedes fewer goals (1 per game) compared to Lillestrom's 2. The head-to-head average of 3.3 goals suggests open play, yet Sandefjord's defensive discipline may limit Lillestrom's scoring opportunities, indicating a balanced goal environment with potential for both teams to score but controlled by Sandefjord.

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickSandefjord to WinBet365 guide price · Model 44% vs implied 39% · edge +5.3 pts
2.6
Check odds @ 2.6
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BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 70%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 75%
1.28
Check odds @ 1.28
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 64%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
Sandefjord Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 54%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
The 43.8% for Sandefjord to Win sits against roughly 38.5% implied by the current price (+5.3 pts). Lillestrom have the stronger recent points return, taking 7 points from the sample compared with 6 for Sandefjord.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Sandefjord

DWLDD
Last 51W 3D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 3D 5L
10 Oct 2026A Rosenborg1-1
20 Sep 2026H Start3-0
14 Sep 2026A Bodo/Glimt2-3
04 Sep 2026H Viking1-1
30 Aug 2026H Brann0-0

Lillestrom

DLWWL
Last 52W 1D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 2D 5L
11 Oct 2026H Molde2-2
20 Sep 2026A Viking0-3
12 Sep 2026H Valerenga2-0
05 Sep 2026A Brann2-1
30 Aug 2026H Fredrikstad1-4
Market aligned with main pickSandefjord to WinBet365 guide price · Model 44% vs implied 39% · edge +5.3 pts
2.6
Check odds @ 2.6
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Home / DrawBetfred guide price · model 74%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
Sandefjord Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 54%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
Sandefjord has collected 6 points recently, showing resilience and the ability to grind results at home. Their goals conceded rate of 1 per game contrasts with Lillestrom's 2, indicating better defensive form. Lillestrom's 7 points and higher BTTS and over 2.5 goals rates suggest more open games, but Sandefjord's recent form favors a controlled approach aiming for a win.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

40%Sandefjord Over 2.5
80%Lillestrom Over 2.5
3.3H2H avg goals
In the last ten head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 3.3, indicating a tendency for relatively open games with multiple goals. Sandefjord's lower over 2.5 goals rate (40%) compared to Lillestrom's 80% suggests that while Lillestrom often participates in high-scoring games, Sandefjord's defensive approach may temper the overall goal count in this fixture.

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