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San Lorenzo crestSan Lorenzo
v
Newells Old Boys crestNewells Old Boys

Liga Profesional Argentina | Sat 24 Oct, 23:15

San Lorenzo v Newells Old Boys Stats

Data last updated: Fri 23 Oct 2026, 08:27 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

This Liga Profesional Argentina clash features Newells Old Boys visiting San Lorenzo in a contest with both sides eager to consolidate their mid-table positions. Newells Old Boys currently sit sixth with 20 points, slightly ahead of San Lorenzo in ninth with 17 points. Newells have shown defensive solidity recently, conceding just 0.6 goals per game compared to San Lorenzo's 1.4, while both teams average 0.8 goals scored per match. The tactical battle will likely hinge on Newells' organized defense and ability to capitalize on counter-attacks against San Lorenzo's more frequent offensive attempts. The fixture promises a competitive encounter with Newells Old Boys holding a slight edge in form and defensive discipline.

BT4Y best bet

Newells Old Boys to Win

  • Newells Old Boys have a stronger defensive record, conceding only 0.6 goals per game compared to San Lorenzo's 1.4.
  • Newells Old Boys rank higher in the league standings (6th vs 9th) with 20 points to San Lorenzo's 17.
  • San Lorenzo and Newells Old Boys both average 0.8 goals scored per game, indicating balanced attacking potential.
  • Newells Old Boys have a lower rate of over 2.5 goals matches (20%) suggesting tighter games, aligning with their defensive strength.
  • Newells Old Boys maintain a better recent form with 8 points compared to San Lorenzo's 7 in their last five matches.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Newells Old Boys to win due to their superior defensive record, conceding only 0.6 goals per game versus San Lorenzo's 1.4. Despite similar attacking outputs, Newells' ability to limit opponents' chances and their higher league position support a winning probability of 49.2%, significantly above the implied of 3.3. This defensive edge combined with consistent recent form and disciplined play makes Newells a strong candidate for victory in this fixture.

Defensive StrengthNewells concede 0.6 goals per game vs San Lorenzo's 1.4
Strong positive
League PositionNewells 6th vs San Lorenzo 9th
Positive
Recent FormNewells 8 points vs San Lorenzo 7 points in last 5 games
Positive
Goal ScoringBoth teams average 0.8 goals per game
Neutral
Over 2.5 Goals RateNewells 20% vs San Lorenzo 40%
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Newells Old Boys' defensive resilience and higher league standing give them a tactical and statistical advantage over San Lorenzo. Their ability to limit goals conceded while maintaining steady form suggests they are well placed to secure a win in this encounter, making the away victory a sensible selection.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome

“Newells Old Boys combine disciplined defense with efficient attacking play, positioning them as the likely winners in this closely matched Liga Profesional fixture.”

Key Data Signals

Newells Old Boys to Win evidence

Newells Old Boys have a stronger defensive record, conceding only 0.6 goals per game compared to San Lorenzo's 1.4.

Newells Old Boys rank higher in the league standings (6th vs 9th) with 20 points to San Lorenzo's 17.

San Lorenzo and Newells Old Boys both average 0.8 goals scored per game, indicating balanced attacking potential.

Newells Old Boys have a lower rate of over 2.5 goals matches (20%) suggesting tighter games, aligning with their defensive strength.

What To Watch In The Data

Newells Old Boys to Win notes

  • In the last ten head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 2.1, indicating moderately paced games.
  • Newells Old Boys' lower over 2.5 goals rate (20%) suggests matches tend to be tighter with fewer goals, supporting the expectation of a controlled tempo and defensive solidity in this fixture.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

San Lorenzo0.8
Avg goals scored
Newells Old Boys0.8
San Lorenzo1.4
Avg goals conceded
Newells Old Boys0.6
San Lorenzo40%
BTTS rate
Newells Old Boys40%
San Lorenzo40%
Over 2.5 goals
Newells Old Boys20%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 57% vs implied 46% · edge +11.2 pts
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
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Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 66%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 22%
6
Check odds @ 6
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 34%
2.88
Check odds @ 2.88
Over 1.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 52%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
BTTS NoBetfred guide price · model 47%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Both teams average a modest 0.8 goals per game, and Newells Old Boys have a low over 2.5 goals rate of 20%, indicating a tendency toward tighter, lower-scoring matches. The BTTS rate is balanced at 40% for both sides, suggesting goals may come from one side rather than both consistently.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

San Lorenzo

WWLLD
Last 52W 1D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 104W 2D 4L
18 Oct 2026A Estudiantes L.P.2-1
11 Oct 2026H Deportivo Riestra1-0
03 Oct 2026A Defensa Y Justicia0-3
20 Sep 2026H Boca Juniors0-2
13 Sep 2026A Independiente1-1

Newells Old Boys

WLDWD
Last 52W 2D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 104W 4D 2L
19 Oct 2026H Central Cordoba de Santiago2-1
12 Oct 2026A Gimnasia M.0-1
03 Oct 2026H Lanus0-0
20 Sep 2026A Platense1-0
11 Sep 2026H Velez Sarsfield1-1
Market aligned with main pickNewells Old Boys to WinBet365 guide price · Model 45% vs implied 30% · edge +15 pts
3.3
Check odds @ 3.3
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Newells Old Boys Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 59%
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
Newells Old Boys have accumulated 8 points in their last five matches, slightly outperforming San Lorenzo's 7 points. Newells' recent defensive performances have been particularly strong, conceding fewer goals and maintaining tighter scorelines, which enhances their chances of securing a win in this fixture.

Continue the research

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickNewells Old Boys to WinBet365 guide price · Model 45% vs implied 30% · edge +15 pts
3.3
Check odds @ 3.3
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BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 57%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Newells Old Boys Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 59%
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 62%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 34%
2.88
Check odds @ 2.88
The 45.3% for Newells Old Boys to Win sits against roughly 30.3% implied by the current price (+15 pts). Newells Old Boys have the stronger recent points return, taking 8 points from the sample compared with 7 for San Lorenzo.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

40%San Lorenzo Over 2.5
20%Newells Old Boys Over 2.5
2.1H2H avg goals
In the last ten head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 2.1, indicating moderately paced games. Newells Old Boys' lower over 2.5 goals rate (20%) suggests matches tend to be tighter with fewer goals, supporting the expectation of a controlled tempo and defensive solidity in this fixture.

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