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San Jose Earthquakes crestSan Jose Earthquakes
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Nashville SC crestNashville SC

Major League Soccer | Sun 18 Oct, 03:30

San Jose Earthquakes v Nashville SC Stats

Data last updated: Sat 17 Oct 2026, 09:07 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Nashville SC leads Major League Soccer with 66 points, showcasing a potent attack averaging 3 goals per game and a stingy defense conceding just 0.6 goals on average. San Jose Earthquakes, ranked fourth with 47 points, have a solid defense but a less prolific offense. Nashville's clinical finishing and consistent form position them as strong favorites in this clash, where their attacking trio and midfield creativity could overwhelm San Jose's backline. The fixture promises intensity with Nashville aiming to maintain their top spot and San Jose striving to close the gap in the standings.

BT4Y best bet

Nashville SC to Win

  • Nashville SC tops the league with 66 points, 19 points clear of San Jose Earthquakes.
  • Nashville averages 3 goals per game, significantly higher than San Jose's 1.6.
  • San Jose concedes 1 goal per game, while Nashville concedes only 0.6, indicating defensive solidity.
  • Surridge has 17 goals and 1.76 shots on target per 90 minutes, leading their attack.
  • Nashville's over 2.5 goals rate is 80%, double San Jose's 40%, reflecting their attacking style.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model strongly favors Nashville SC to win, assigning a 70% chance based on their superior offensive output and defensive resilience. Nashville's high shot volume and clinical finishing, led by S. Mukhtar, contrast with San Jose's lower scoring rate. The of 17.6% indicates the underestimate Nashville's probability, making this a compelling selection. The data quality is robust for both teams, reinforcing in the model's assessment.

Model Win Probability70%
Strong positive
Nashville Goals Per Game3.0
Strong positive
San Jose Goals Against Per Game1.0
Neutral
Value Edge67.4% model chance vs 52.4% implied (+15 pts)
Strong positive
Data QualityComplete for both teams
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Nashville SC's dominant league position and attacking firepower make them the logical choice to win this match. Their ability to convert chances and maintain defensive discipline contrasts with San Jose's more modest offensive threat. Nashville's consistent form and superior goal difference underpin in their victory.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome

“Nashville SC's blend of clinical finishing and defensive solidity sets them apart in this fixture, making them the clear tactical and statistical favorite to secure all three points.”

Key Data Signals

Nashville SC to Win evidence

Nashville SC tops the league with 66 points, 19 points clear of San Jose Earthquakes.

Nashville averages 3 goals per game, significantly higher than San Jose's 1.6.

San Jose concedes 1 goal per game, while Nashville concedes only 0.6, indicating defensive solidity.

Surridge has 17 goals and 1.76 shots on target per 90 minutes, leading their attack.

What To Watch In The Data

Nashville SC to Win notes

  • In the last four meetings, the average goals per game is 2, indicating moderate scoring.
  • However, Nashville's recent matches show an 80% over 2.5 goals rate, suggesting a faster tempo and more open play that could increase goal opportunities in this fixture.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

San Jose Earthquakes1.6
Avg goals scored
Nashville SC3
San Jose Earthquakes1
Avg goals conceded
Nashville SC0.6
San Jose Earthquakes80%
BTTS rate
Nashville SC40%
San Jose Earthquakes40%
Over 2.5 goals
Nashville SC80%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 73% vs implied 67% · edge +6.6 pts
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
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Under 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 51%
2.4
Check odds @ 2.4
Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 72%
1.14
Check odds @ 1.14
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 54%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 36%
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
BTTS NoBetfred guide price · model 31%
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
Nashville SC's matches have an 80% rate of over 2.5 goals, driven by their potent attack and ability to create high-quality chances. San Jose's 80% BTTS rate contrasts with Nashville's 40%, indicating San Jose tends to concede and score, but Nashville's defensive strength may limit San Jose's scoring opportunities, making goals likely but BTTS less certain.

Continue the research

Useful next reads

Major League Soccer hubcorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting angleslatest football statsmain football hubtoday's predictionsbest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickNashville SC to WinBetfred guide price · Model 67% vs implied 52% · edge +15 pts
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
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Nashville SC Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 68%
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 73%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 68%
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 54%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
The 67.4% for Nashville SC to Win sits against roughly 52.4% implied by the current price (+15 pts). Nashville SC have the stronger recent points return, taking 13 points from the sample compared with 9 for San Jose Earthquakes.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

San Jose Earthquakes

DDWDW
Last 52W 3D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 5D 2L
15 Oct 2026A Real Salt Lake1-1
11 Oct 2026A Colorado Rapids1-1
27 Sep 2026H Portland Timbers3-1
20 Sep 2026H Los Angeles FC2-2
13 Sep 2026H Houston Dynamo1-0

Nashville SC

WWWWD
Last 54W 1D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 107W 2D 1L
15 Oct 2026H Sporting Kansas City4-0
11 Oct 2026A Austin4-1
27 Sep 2026H Toronto FC2-0
20 Sep 2026H Chicago Fire3-0
13 Sep 2026A Inter Miami2-2
Market aligned with main pickNashville SC to WinBetfred guide price · Model 67% vs implied 52% · edge +15 pts
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
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Nashville SC Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 68%
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
Away / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 84%
1.28
Check odds @ 1.28
Nashville SC has accumulated 13 points recently, outperforming San Jose's 9 points, reflecting stronger momentum. Nashville's offensive output of 3 goals per game contrasts with San Jose's 1.6, indicating Nashville's ability to consistently break down defenses and sustain pressure, which is critical in this matchup.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

40%San Jose Earthquakes Over 2.5
80%Nashville SC Over 2.5
2H2H avg goals
In the last four meetings, the average goals per game is 2, indicating moderate scoring. However, Nashville's recent matches show an 80% over 2.5 goals rate, suggesting a faster tempo and more open play that could increase goal opportunities in this fixture.

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