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Samsunspor crestSamsunspor
v
Amed crestAmed

Süper Lig | Sat 24 Oct, 17:00

Samsunspor v Amed Stats

Data last updated: Fri 23 Oct 2026, 08:26 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

This Süper Lig fixture features struggling Samsunspor hosting second-placed Amed, who arrive in strong form with 11 points from recent matches. Samsunspor have scored just 0.4 goals per game while conceding 2.8, highlighting defensive frailties. Amed's attack is potent, averaging 2.6 goals per game, and their recent momentum underlines their status as favorites. Tactical discipline and attacking efficiency favor Amed, who look to extend their impressive away record against a Samsunspor side seeking to arrest their poor run.

BT4Y best bet

Amed to Win

  • Amed ranks 2nd with 17 points; Samsunspor is 17th with 4 points.
  • Amed averages 2.6 goals scored per match versus Samsunspor's 0.4.
  • Samsunspor concedes 2.8 goals per game, showing defensive weakness.
  • Amed has a 70% to win, with positive value at 2.05 .
  • Amed's attackers G. Diagne show strong goal threat and shot volume.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model strongly favors Amed to win with a 70% chance, reflecting their superior recent form and offensive output. Samsunspor's defensive record and low scoring rate contrast sharply with Amed's attacking efficiency, including high shot and shot-on-target rates from key forwards. The at 2.05 offer positive value given the implied chance of 48.8%. This pick is supported by solid data on team form, goal threat, and player performance, making Amed a confident selection for this fixture.

Model Win Probability70%
Strong positive
Amed Goals Per Game2.6
Strong positive
Samsunspor Goals Against Per Game2.8
Negative
Odds vs Model Value Edge63.8% model chance vs 48.8% implied (+15 pts)
Strong positive
Key Player Goal ThreatG. Orban 7 goals, 1.39 SOT/90
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Amed's recent form and attacking prowess make them the clear choice to win this match. Their ability to create and convert chances contrasts with Samsunspor's defensive struggles, suggesting Amed can secure a valuable away victory. The data-driven in Amed's win is reinforced by their higher league standing and offensive efficiency.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Amed's attacking edge and form

“Amed's dynamic attack and consistent form position them well to exploit Samsunspor's defensive vulnerabilities. Their key forwards' shot volume and accuracy underline a strong goal threat that should decide this encounter.”

Key Data Signals

Amed to Win evidence

Amed ranks 2nd with 17 points; Samsunspor is 17th with 4 points.

Amed averages 2.6 goals scored per match versus Samsunspor's 0.4.

Samsunspor concedes 2.8 goals per game, showing defensive weakness.

Amed has a 70% to win, with positive value at 2.05 .

What To Watch In The Data

Amed to Win notes

  • Over the last five matches, the fixture trend favors over 2.5 goals, with an 80% rate for Amed and 60% for Samsunspor.
  • The average goals in their recent meetings is 2.25, indicating a tendency for open, attacking games with multiple scoring opportunities.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Samsunspor0.4
Avg goals scored
Amed2.6
Samsunspor2.8
Avg goals conceded
Amed1.2
Samsunspor40%
BTTS rate
Amed60%
Samsunspor60%
Over 2.5 goals
Amed80%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 67% vs implied 58% · edge +8.9 pts
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Load more odds for this section
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 61%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 79%
1.25
Check odds @ 1.25
Over 3.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 43%
3
Check odds @ 3
Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 43%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 37%
2
Check odds @ 2
Amed's high scoring average of 2.6 goals per game and Samsunspor's defensive concession rate of 2.8 suggest a match prone to goals. Both teams to score is plausible given Amed's 60% BTTS rate and Samsunspor's 40%, indicating attacking intent but defensive lapses on both sides.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickAmed to WinBet365 guide price · Model 64% vs implied 49% · edge +15 pts
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
Load more odds for this section
Amed Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 71%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 67%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Over 8.5 CornersBetfred guide price · model 70%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 61%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
The 63.8% for Amed to Win sits against roughly 48.8% implied by the current price (+15 pts). Amed have the stronger recent points return, taking 11 points from the sample compared with 0 for Samsunspor.

Continue the research

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Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Samsunspor

LLLLL
Last 50W 0D 5L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 1D 6L
18 Oct 2026A Kasımpaşa1-4
10 Oct 2026H Trabzonspor0-3
20 Sep 2026A Erzurumspor FK0-1
12 Sep 2026H Çorum FK1-5
06 Sep 2026A Kocaelispor0-1

Amed

WDWWD
Last 53W 2D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 105W 2D 1L
17 Oct 2026H Konyaspor1-0
10 Oct 2026A Gençlerbirliği S.K.2-2
20 Sep 2026H Beşiktaş3-2
13 Sep 2026H Başakşehir5-0
06 Sep 2026A Kasımpaşa2-2
Market aligned with main pickAmed to WinBet365 guide price · Model 64% vs implied 49% · edge +15 pts
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
Load more odds for this section
Amed Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 71%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Away / DrawBet365 guide price · model 84%
1.33
Check odds @ 1.33
Amed's recent form is strong, accumulating 11 points with a high goal output of 2.6 per game, contrasting with Samsunspor's 0 points and low scoring of 0.4. This momentum disparity underscores Amed's and tactical effectiveness heading into the match.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

60%Samsunspor Over 2.5
80%Amed Over 2.5
2.25H2H avg goals
Over the last five matches, the fixture trend favors over 2.5 goals, with an 80% rate for Amed and 60% for Samsunspor. The average goals in their recent meetings is 2.25, indicating a tendency for open, attacking games with multiple scoring opportunities.

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