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Saint Etienne crestSaint Etienne
v
Nantes crestNantes

Ligue 2 | Sat 24 Oct, 19:45

Saint Etienne v Nantes Stats

Data last updated: Fri 23 Oct 2026, 08:29 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Saint Etienne leads Ligue 2 with 22 points and hosts Nantes, who sit 14th with 8 points, in a match where home advantage and current form heavily favor Saint Etienne. The home side has been prolific offensively, averaging 1.8 goals per game and maintaining a solid defense with just one goal conceded per match. Nantes, meanwhile, have struggled to find consistent scoring form and face a tough challenge breaking down a confident Saint Etienne side. This fixture pits a high-scoring, confident team against a side with less attacking threat, setting the stage for a home win.

BT4Y best bet

Saint Etienne to Win

  • Saint Etienne tops Ligue 2 with 22 points, Nantes have 8 points in 14th place.
  • Saint Etienne averages 1.8 goals scored and 1 conceded per game, Nantes average 1 goal scored and conceded.
  • Saint Etienne has a 60% rate of matches over 2.5 goals, Nantes only 40%.
  • Saint Etienne averages fewer corners but more shots on target than Nantes.
  • Saint Etienne’s recent form yields 10 points versus Nantes’ 7 in recent matches.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model assigns a 61.6% chance to Saint Etienne winning, reflecting their superior league position, stronger recent form, and better scoring and defensive stats. Saint Etienne's higher goal output and defensive solidity create a clear edge over Nantes, who have struggled offensively and sit much lower in the table. The at 1.67 offer a small positive , supporting a standard stake. The data quality is robust with no limitations, reinforcing in this pick.

Model Win Probability61.6%
Strong positive
Saint Etienne Offensive Strength1.8 goals per game
Strong positive
Nantes Offensive Weakness1 goal per game
Negative
Recent Form PointsSaint Etienne 10 vs Nantes 7
Positive
League Standings GapSaint Etienne 1st vs Nantes 14th
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Saint Etienne’s strong league position and superior recent form make them the logical choice to win this match. Their ability to score consistently and maintain defensive discipline contrasts with Nantes’ struggles, suggesting the home team will control the game and secure victory.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome

“Saint Etienne’s attacking consistency and defensive stability give them a clear tactical advantage over Nantes, who have yet to find reliable offensive solutions this season.”

Key Data Signals

Saint Etienne to Win evidence

Saint Etienne tops Ligue 2 with 22 points, Nantes have 8 points in 14th place.

Saint Etienne averages 1.8 goals scored and 1 conceded per game, Nantes average 1 goal scored and conceded.

Saint Etienne has a 60% rate of matches over 2.5 goals, Nantes only 40%.

Saint Etienne averages fewer corners but more shots on target than Nantes.

What To Watch In The Data

Saint Etienne to Win notes

  • Over the last 10 head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 2.7, suggesting a moderately open fixture historically.
  • Saint Etienne’s recent matches have a 60% over 2.5 goals rate, reinforcing the trend for multiple goals and an attacking tempo in this encounter.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Saint Etienne1.8
Avg goals scored
Nantes1
Saint Etienne1
Avg goals conceded
Nantes1
Saint Etienne60%
BTTS rate
Nantes40%
Saint Etienne60%
Over 2.5 goals
Nantes40%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 63% vs implied 58% · edge +5.5 pts
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
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Over 1.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 77%
1.25
Check odds @ 1.25
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 59%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 41%
3
Check odds @ 3
Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 45%
2
Check odds @ 2
BTTS NoBetfred guide price · model 41%
2
Check odds @ 2
Saint Etienne’s matches see a 60% rate of over 2.5 goals and 60% BTTS, indicating open games with scoring from both sides. Nantes have lower rates at 40%, reflecting their more cautious or less effective offense. This suggests a match likely to feature multiple goals, primarily driven by Saint Etienne’s attacking prowess.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickSaint Etienne to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 62% vs implied 60% · edge +1.7 pts
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
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BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 63%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 59%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Saint Etienne Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 70%
1.38
Check odds @ 1.38
Over 8.5 CornersBetfred guide price · model 62%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
The 61.6% for Saint Etienne to Win sits against roughly 59.9% implied by the current price (+1.7 pts). Saint Etienne have the stronger recent points return, taking 10 points from the sample compared with 7 for Nantes.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Saint Etienne

WWDLW
Last 53W 1D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 107W 1D 1L
17 Oct 2026A RED Star FC 931-0
10 Oct 2026H Rodez2-0
19 Sep 2026A Metz2-2
12 Sep 2026A Dunkerque1-2
05 Sep 2026H Montpellier3-1

Nantes

LDWLW
Last 52W 1D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 2D 5L
17 Oct 2026H Dunkerque2-3
10 Oct 2026H Reims0-0
19 Sep 2026A Boulogne2-1
12 Sep 2026A Sochaux0-1
07 Sep 2026H Nancy1-0
Market aligned with main pickSaint Etienne to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 62% vs implied 60% · edge +1.7 pts
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
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Home / DrawBetfred guide price · model 86%
1.2
Check odds @ 1.2
Saint Etienne Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 70%
1.38
Check odds @ 1.38
Saint Etienne has collected 10 points in recent matches, reflecting consistent winning performances and goal scoring. Nantes have earned 7 points, showing some resilience but less consistency. Saint Etienne’s form advantage is a key factor supporting their expected victory in this fixture.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

60%Saint Etienne Over 2.5
40%Nantes Over 2.5
2.7H2H avg goals
Over the last 10 head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 2.7, suggesting a moderately open fixture historically. Saint Etienne’s recent matches have a 60% over 2.5 goals rate, reinforcing the trend for multiple goals and an attacking tempo in this encounter.

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