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Rosenborg crestRosenborg
v
Start crestStart

Eliteserien | Sat 07 Nov, 17:00

Rosenborg v Start Stats

Data last updated: Sun 08 Nov 2026, 19:09 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Rosenborg face Start in an Eliteserien clash where Rosenborg's strong defensive record and Start's struggles in attack set the tone. Rosenborg have conceded just 0.4 goals per game recently, while Start have scored only 0.8 goals per match and sit bottom of the table. Rosenborg's high points tally and defensive solidity contrast with Start's difficulties, suggesting a tactical battle with limited scoring opportunities. Both teams have moderate BTTS rates, indicating a controlled game with fewer goals is likely in this late-season encounter.

BT4Y best bet

Under 2.5 Goals

  • Rosenborg concede only 0.4 goals per game, showing defensive strength
  • Start average just 0.8 goals scored per match, struggling offensively
  • Both teams have a 40% BTTS rate, indicating less frequent mutual scoring
  • Rosenborg's recent matches go over 2.5 goals 80% of the time, but Start's defensive issues and low scoring reduce overall goal count
  • Head-to-head average goals stand at 1.75, supporting a low-scoring game

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Under 2.5 Goals with a 45.2% chance, significantly higher than the implied market chance of 29.4%, indicating strong value. Rosenborg's defensive discipline and Start's limited attacking output underpin this forecast. Despite Rosenborg's occasional high-scoring games, Start's inability to score consistently and Rosenborg's solid backline suggest a match with few goals. The level at 63% supports a controlled game scenario. No data limitations affect this view, making Under 2.5 Goals a sensible selection with standard stake guidance.

Model Probability44.4% model chance vs 29.4% implied (+15 pts)
Strong positive
Market Implied Chance44.4% model chance vs 29.4% implied (+15 pts)
Neutral
Value Edge44.4% model chance vs 29.4% implied (+15 pts)
Strong positive
Confidence Level63%
Positive
Data QualityComplete data for both teams
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Under 2.5 Goals is a logical pick given Rosenborg's defensive resilience and Start's poor attacking form. The tactical setup and recent form data point to a match where scoring chances will be limited, making a low-scoring outcome the most probable scenario.

Main risk

A slower tempo or weaker chance quality would make the goals market harder to justify at the current price.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome and goal total

“Rosenborg's disciplined defense combined with Start's lack of offensive threat creates a strong case for a low-scoring match. The statistical edge and tactical context align well with an Under 2.5 Goals outcome.”

Key Data Signals

Under 2.5 Goals evidence

Rosenborg concede only 0.4 goals per game, showing defensive strength

Start average just 0.8 goals scored per match, struggling offensively

Both teams have a 40% BTTS rate, indicating less frequent mutual scoring

What To Watch In The Data

Under 2.5 Goals notes

  • In the last eight head-to-head meetings, the average goals scored is 1.75, indicating a trend toward low-scoring matches.
  • This sample suggests a tempo and tactical approach that limits goal opportunities, supporting the Under 2.5 Goals trend and a match where defenses dominate over attacking flair.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Rosenborg2.6
Avg goals scored
Start0.8
Rosenborg0.4
Avg goals conceded
Start2.8
Rosenborg40%
BTTS rate
Start40%
Rosenborg80%
Over 2.5 goals
Start60%
Market aligned with main pickUnder 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · Model 44% vs implied 29% · edge +15 pts
3.4
Check odds @ 3.4
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BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 60%
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 77%
1.1
Check odds @ 1.1
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 44%
2
Check odds @ 2
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 59%
1.33
Check odds @ 1.33
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 41%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Both teams have a 40% BTTS rate, indicating that matches where both sides score are less frequent. Rosenborg's strong defense and Start's low scoring average support a controlled goals environment, aligning with the Under 2.5 Goals pick and a likely BTTS No scenario.

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionStart Draw No BetBet365 guide price · Model 32% vs implied 17% · edge +15 pts
5.75
Check odds @ 5.75
Load more odds for this section
Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 75%
1.3
Check odds @ 1.3
BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 60%
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
Start to WinBet365 guide price · model 23%
11
Check odds @ 11
Rosenborg Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 78%
1.14
Check odds @ 1.14
Rosenborg to WinBetfred guide price · model 74%
1.2
Check odds @ 1.2
DrawBet365 guide price · model 18%
5.75
Check odds @ 5.75
The 44.4% for Under 2.5 Goals sits against roughly 29.4% implied by the current price (+15 pts). The Over 2.5 trend is 80% for Rosenborg and 60% for Start, so the goals angle is not just a price call.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Rosenborg

WWWDW
Last 54W 1D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 108W 1D 1L
31 Oct 2026A Fredrikstad3-0
24 Oct 2026A Ham-Kam3-0
18 Oct 2026A Sarpsborg 08 FF3-0
10 Oct 2026H Sandefjord1-1
19 Sep 2026A Kristiansund BK3-1

Start

LWLLL
Last 51W 0D 4L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 0D 7L
01 Nov 2026H Lillestrom0-1
25 Oct 2026H Sandefjord1-0
18 Oct 2026A Molde1-6
11 Oct 2026H Ham-Kam2-4
20 Sep 2026A Sandefjord0-3
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBetfred guide price · Model 40% vs implied 25% · edge +15 pts
4
Check odds @ 4
Load more odds for this section
Start Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 32%
5.75
Check odds @ 5.75
Home / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 86%
1.04
Check odds @ 1.04
Start to WinBet365 guide price · model 23%
11
Check odds @ 11
Rosenborg Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 78%
1.14
Check odds @ 1.14
Rosenborg to WinBetfred guide price · model 74%
1.2
Check odds @ 1.2
DrawBet365 guide price · model 18%
5.75
Check odds @ 5.75
Rosenborg have accumulated 13 points recently with a strong defensive record conceding only 0.4 goals per game, while Start have managed just 3 points and concede 2.8 goals per match. Rosenborg's recent matches often exceed 2.5 goals, but Start's poor form and low scoring temper expectations, supporting the Under 2.5 Goals forecast.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

80%Rosenborg Over 2.5
60%Start Over 2.5
1.75H2H avg goals
In the last eight head-to-head meetings, the average goals scored is 1.75, indicating a trend toward low-scoring matches. This sample suggests a tempo and tactical approach that limits goal opportunities, supporting the Under 2.5 Goals trend and a match where defenses dominate over attacking flair.

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