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Ried crestRied
v
Austria Vienna crestAustria Vienna

Bundesliga | Sat 17 Oct, 18:30

Ried v Austria Vienna Stats

Data last updated: Sun 18 Oct 2026, 23:14 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Ried hosts Austria Vienna in this Bundesliga clash with Ried showing stronger recent form and a higher league standing. Ried has accumulated 10 points recently with a solid defensive record conceding just 1.2 goals per game, while Austria Vienna has struggled with only 4 points and a leaky defense allowing 2 goals per match. Ried's attacking threat is bolstered by key players like I. Kiese Thelin and N. Sissoko, who consistently create chances. Austria Vienna will need to overcome these challenges to avoid defeat in this encounter.

BT4Y best bet

Ried to Win

  • Ried has earned 10 points recently compared to Austria Vienna's 4, showing better form.
  • Ried concedes fewer goals per game (1.2) than Austria Vienna (2.0), indicating defensive solidity.
  • Kiese Thelin averages 2.65 shots on target per 90 minutes, posing a significant goal threat.
  • Both teams have a 60% rate of matches going over 2.5 goals, suggesting attacking play.
  • Ried ranks 5th in the league, ahead of Austria Vienna in 10th, reflecting stronger season performance.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model assigns a 74% chance for Ried to win, reflecting their superior recent form, defensive stability, and attacking efficiency. Ried's higher league position and better points tally underline their advantage. Key attackers such as I. Kiese Thelin and N. Sissoko contribute significantly to Ried's goal threat, supported by solid defensive numbers. The at 2.45 offer positive value given the implied chance of 40.8%, making Ried to Win a confident selection for this fixture.

Recent FormRied has 10 points vs Austria Vienna's 4 in recent matches
Strong positive
Defensive RecordRied concedes 1.2 goals per game, Austria Vienna 2.0
Positive
Attacking ThreatI. Kiese Thelin averages 2.65 shots on target per 90 minutes
Strong positive
League PositionRied 5th vs Austria Vienna 10th
Positive
Odds Value55.8% model chance vs 40.8% implied (+15 pts)
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Ried's superior recent form and defensive resilience make them the clear favorite to secure victory. Their attacking players consistently generate quality chances, while Austria Vienna's defensive struggles increase the likelihood of a home win. This combination of tactical strength and data-backed performance supports backing Ried to Win.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome

“Ried's blend of solid defense and potent attack, led by key players like Kiese Thelin, positions them well to capitalize on Austria Vienna's vulnerabilities in this Bundesliga fixture.”

Key Data Signals

Ried to Win evidence

Ried has earned 10 points recently compared to Austria Vienna's 4, showing better form.

Ried concedes fewer goals per game (1.2) than Austria Vienna (2.0), indicating defensive solidity.

Kiese Thelin averages 2.65 shots on target per 90 minutes, posing a significant goal threat.

Both teams have a 60% rate of matches going over 2.5 goals, suggesting attacking play.

What To Watch In The Data

Ried to Win notes

  • The last 10 head-to-head matches average 3.5 goals per game, aligning with both teams' recent over 2.5 goals rate of 60%.
  • This trend suggests a lively encounter with multiple scoring opportunities, supporting an attacking game environment conducive to Ried's offensive strengths.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Ried2
Avg goals scored
Austria Vienna1
Ried1.2
Avg goals conceded
Austria Vienna2
Ried80%
BTTS rate
Austria Vienna60%
Ried60%
Over 2.5 goals
Austria Vienna60%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 76% vs implied 62% · edge +14.3 pts
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
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Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 64%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 82%
1.22
Check odds @ 1.22
Over 3.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 46%
2.75
Check odds @ 2.75
Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 40%
2
Check odds @ 2
BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 28%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Both teams have a 60% rate of matches exceeding 2.5 goals, indicating an open game with attacking intent. Ried's 80% BTTS rate suggests they often concede and score, while Austria Vienna's 60% BTTS rate supports the likelihood of goals at both ends in this fixture.

Continue the research

Useful next reads

Bundesliga hubcorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting angleslatest football statsmain football hubtoday's predictionsbest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickRied to WinBet365 guide price · Model 56% vs implied 41% · edge +15 pts
2.45
Check odds @ 2.45
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BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 76%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Ried Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 68%
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 64%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
The 55.8% for Ried to Win sits against roughly 40.8% implied by the current price (+15 pts). Ried have the stronger recent points return, taking 10 points from the sample compared with 4 for Austria Vienna.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Ried

WWDLW
Last 53W 1D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 2D 3L
10 Oct 2026A WSG Wattens2-1
20 Sep 2026H Wolfsberger AC4-1
11 Sep 2026H Red Bull Salzburg1-1
30 Aug 2026A TSV Hartberg2-3
21 Aug 2026H Grazer AK1-0

Austria Vienna

LDWLL
Last 51W 1D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 1D 5L
10 Oct 2026H Sturm Graz0-2
19 Sep 2026A Grazer AK2-2
13 Sep 2026H Austria Lustenau2-1
02 Sep 2026H WSG Wattens0-1
30 Aug 2026A Red Bull Salzburg1-4
Market aligned with main pickRied to WinBet365 guide price · Model 56% vs implied 41% · edge +15 pts
2.45
Check odds @ 2.45
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Home / DrawBetfred guide price · model 86%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
Ried Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 68%
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
Ried's recent form is markedly better, with 10 points gained compared to Austria Vienna's 4. Their defense has conceded fewer goals, and their attack has been more productive, underpinning the model's in a home win. Austria Vienna's struggles suggest difficulty in reversing this trend away from home.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

60%Ried Over 2.5
60%Austria Vienna Over 2.5
3.5H2H avg goals
The last 10 head-to-head matches average 3.5 goals per game, aligning with both teams' recent over 2.5 goals rate of 60%. This trend suggests a lively encounter with multiple scoring opportunities, supporting an attacking game environment conducive to Ried's offensive strengths.

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