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RB Leipzig crestRB Leipzig
v
Union Berlin crestUnion Berlin

Bundesliga | Sat 20 Mar, 14:30

RB Leipzig v Union Berlin Stats

Data last updated: Sat 07 Nov 2026, 02:04 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

RB Leipzig face Union Berlin in Bundesliga on Sat 20 Mar, 14:30. Leipzig have scored the first goal in 23 of their 31 league matches and have not conceded in the opening 15 minutes all season. Leipzig are in clinical form, winning six of their last seven matches while scoring fifteen goals.

BT4Y best bet

(RB Leipzig -1), the home side must win by at least two clear goals for the bet to be successful

  • At 6/1, (RB Leipzig -1), the home side must win by at least two clear goals for the bet to be successful implies roughly 14%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 29%.
  • Leipzig have conceded just five goals in their last seven games and haven't conceded in the opening fifteen minutes all season.
  • RB Leipzig have the stronger recent points return, taking 9 points from the sample compared with 6 for Union Berlin.
  • RB Leipzig have the cleaner defensive sample at 1.6 conceded per match, which helps the (RB Leipzig -1), the home side must win by at least two clear goals for the bet to be.
  • RB Leipzig sit 4 in the table, while Union Berlin sit 16, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 29% for (RB Leipzig -1), the home side must win by at least two clear goals for the bet to be successful sits against roughly 14% implied by the current price. RB Leipzig have the stronger recent points return, taking 9 points from the sample compared with 6 for Union Berlin. Leipzig have conceded just five goals in their last seven games and haven't conceded in the opening fifteen minutes all season.

Model chance vs price29% model chance against roughly 14% implied
Strong positive
RB Leipzig have the stronger recent points return, taking 9.Visible data support
Positive
RB Leipzig have the cleaner defensive sample at 1.6 conceded.Visible data support
Positive
Leipzig have conceded just five goals in their last.Article support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: RB Leipzig Win is the preferred angle because leipzig have conceded just five goals in their last seven games and haven't conceded in the opening fifteen minutes all season. RB Leipzig have the stronger recent points return, taking 9 points from the sample compared with 6 for Union Berlin. For Union, Rani Khedira and Aljoscha Kemlein will need to impose themselves early, not just to disrupt Leipzig’s rhythm, but to provide a stable base for transitions.

Main risk

For Union, Rani Khedira and Aljoscha Kemlein will need to impose themselves early, not just to disrupt Leipzig’s rhythm, but to provide a stable base for transitions.

Key Data Signals

(RB Leipzig -1), the home side must win by at least two clear goals for the bet to be successful evidence

Leipzig have conceded just five goals in their last seven games and haven't conceded in the opening fifteen.

RB Leipzig have the stronger recent points return, taking 9 points from the sample compared with 6 for Union Berlin.

RB Leipzig have the cleaner defensive sample at 1.6 conceded per match, which helps the RB Leipzig Win angle more than a raw possession edge.

RB Leipzig sit 4 in the table, while Union Berlin sit 16, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

What To Watch In The Data

(RB Leipzig -1), the home side must win by at least two clear goals for the bet to be successful notes

    Goals, BTTS and over/under

    Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

    RB Leipzig2.6
    Avg goals scored
    Union Berlin0.6
    RB Leipzig1.6
    Avg goals conceded
    Union Berlin1.8
    RB Leipzig20%
    BTTS rate
    Union Berlin40%
    RB Leipzig60%
    Over 2.5 goals
    Union Berlin20%

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    Market odds

    Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

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    Recent form

    Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

    RB Leipzig

    WWLWL
    Last 53W 0D 2L
    Last 5 record
    Last 105W 0D 3L
    31 Oct 2026A FC Schalke 042-0
    24 Oct 2026H SV Elversberg4-0
    17 Oct 2026A Bayern München1-6
    10 Oct 2026H Eintracht Frankfurt6-0
    20 Sep 2026A Bayer Leverkusen0-2

    Union Berlin

    DDDWL
    Last 51W 3D 1L
    Last 5 record
    Last 101W 4D 3L
    01 Nov 2026H 1. FC Köln1-1
    24 Oct 2026A FC Augsburg1-1
    17 Oct 2026H Borussia Dortmund0-0
    10 Oct 2026H SV Elversberg1-0
    18 Sep 2026A Bayern München0-7

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    Key match trends

    Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

    60%RB Leipzig Over 2.5
    20%Union Berlin Over 2.5
    2.5H2H avg goals
    The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: RB Leipzig sit at 60% and Union Berlin sit at 20% with the H2H average at 2.5 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

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