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Ravenna crestRavenna
v
Spezia crestSpezia

Serie C - Girone B | Sun 18 Oct, 13:30

Ravenna v Spezia Stats

Data last updated: Sat 17 Oct 2026, 09:12 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Spezia currently leads Serie C - Girone B and faces Ravenna, who are second in the standings, making this a top-of-the-table clash with high stakes. Spezia's recent form shows a strong attack averaging 2.2 goals per game and a solid defense conceding just 0.4 goals, indicating balanced team strength. Ravenna has been effective defensively but less prolific offensively, averaging 1.8 goals scored and 0.6 conceded. The tactical battle will likely hinge on Spezia's ability to break down Ravenna's tight defense while maintaining their own solidity at the back. This fixture promises intensity and quality from both sides.

BT4Y best bet

Spezia to Win

  • Spezia leads the league with 25 points, Ravenna close behind with 20 points.
  • Spezia averages 2.2 goals scored and concedes only 0.4 per game, showing strong balance.
  • Ravenna has a lower over 2.5 goals rate (40%) compared to Spezia's 60%, indicating Spezia's attacking edge.
  • No previous head-to-head data, making current form and standings crucial for analysis.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Spezia to win with a 57.6% chance, significantly higher than the implied market chance of 37%, indicating clear value at of 2.7. Spezia's superior recent form, league-leading points tally, and stronger attacking and defensive stats underpin this . The team's ability to score frequently while conceding few goals suggests they can overcome Ravenna's solid defense. No data limitations affect this prediction, making the pick robust and well-supported by current season performance.

Model Chance52% model chance vs 37% implied (+15 pts)
Strong positive
Implied Market Chance52% model chance vs 37% implied (+15 pts)
Strong positive
Value Edge52% model chance vs 37% implied (+15 pts)
Strong positive
Recent FormSpezia stronger in points and goals
Strong positive
Defensive RecordSpezia concedes fewer goals
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Spezia's consistent attacking threat combined with their league-leading defensive solidity makes them the likely winners in this crucial top-table clash. Their ability to maintain pressure and convert chances should overcome Ravenna's disciplined defense, supported by Spezia's superior recent form and points tally.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Tactical and form-based analysis

“Spezia's balanced approach of strong offense and tight defense positions them well to secure victory in this high-stakes fixture against a defensively sound Ravenna side.”

Key Data Signals

Spezia to Win evidence

Spezia leads the league with 25 points, Ravenna close behind with 20 points.

Spezia averages 2.2 goals scored and concedes only 0.4 per game, showing strong balance.

Ravenna has a lower over 2.5 goals rate (40%) compared to Spezia's 60%, indicating Spezia's attacking edge.

No previous head-to-head data, making current form and standings crucial for analysis.

What To Watch In The Data

Spezia to Win notes

  • Over the last five matches, Spezia's 60% over 2.5 goals rate suggests a tendency for higher-scoring games, driven by their attacking style and ability to create chances.
  • Ravenna's lower rate indicates more conservative matches.
  • This trend points to a match that could open up if Spezia imposes their offensive rhythm, increasing goal-scoring opportunities.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Ravenna1.8
Avg goals scored
Spezia2.2
Ravenna0.6
Avg goals conceded
Spezia0.4
Ravenna40%
BTTS rate
Spezia40%
Ravenna40%
Over 2.5 goals
Spezia60%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 60% vs implied 56% · edge +4.4 pts
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
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Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 57%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Over 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 47%
2
Check odds @ 2
Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 65%
1.3
Check odds @ 1.3
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 29%
3.5
Check odds @ 3.5
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 44%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Spezia's higher over 2.5 goals rate (60%) compared to Ravenna's 40% indicates a greater likelihood of a more open game with multiple goals. Both teams have a 40% BTTS rate, suggesting goals from both sides are possible but not guaranteed. Spezia's attacking potency combined with Ravenna's defensive solidity may produce a balanced contest with moderate goal-scoring.

Continue the research

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Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Ravenna

WLWWW
Last 54W 0D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 106W 2D 1L
11 Oct 2026H Campobasso FC3-1
04 Oct 2026A Pianese1-2
27 Sep 2026H Gubbio2-0
20 Sep 2026A Atalanta II2-0
16 Sep 2026A Ostia Mare1-0

Spezia

WWWWW
Last 55W 0D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 108W 1D 0L
10 Oct 2026H Gubbio2-0
04 Oct 2026A Reggiana1-0
27 Sep 2026A Pescara2-1
21 Sep 2026H Vis Pesaro3-1
16 Sep 2026A Perugia3-0
Market aligned with main pickSpezia to WinBetfred guide price · Model 52% vs implied 37% · edge +15 pts
2.7
Check odds @ 2.7
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Away / DrawBetfred guide price · model 83%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
Spezia Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 66%
1.98
Check odds @ 1.98
Spezia's recent form is superior, with 15 points compared to Ravenna's 12 in the latest matches. Their ability to score more goals and concede fewer reflects a team in strong momentum, likely boosting and tactical execution. Ravenna's form is solid but less prolific, indicating a potential challenge in matching Spezia's attacking output.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickSpezia to WinBetfred guide price · Model 52% vs implied 37% · edge +15 pts
2.7
Check odds @ 2.7
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Spezia Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 66%
1.98
Check odds @ 1.98
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 60%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Over 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 47%
2
Check odds @ 2
The 52% for Spezia to Win sits against roughly 37% implied by the current price (+15 pts). Spezia have the stronger recent points return, taking 15 points from the sample compared with 12 for Ravenna.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

40%Ravenna Over 2.5
60%Spezia Over 2.5
-H2H avg goals
Over the last five matches, Spezia's 60% over 2.5 goals rate suggests a tendency for higher-scoring games, driven by their attacking style and ability to create chances. Ravenna's lower rate indicates more conservative matches. This trend points to a match that could open up if Spezia imposes their offensive rhythm, increasing goal-scoring opportunities.

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