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PRO Vercelli crestPRO Vercelli
v
Lecco crestLecco

Serie C - Girone A | Fri 16 Oct, 19:30

PRO Vercelli v Lecco Stats

Data last updated: Thu 15 Oct 2026, 09:00 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

PRO Vercelli and Lecco meet in Serie C - Girone A with both sides showing cautious recent form. PRO Vercelli has struggled offensively, scoring just one goal in their last five matches, while Lecco also averages a low 1.2 goals per game. Defensively, both teams have conceded regularly but tend to avoid high-scoring encounters. The tactical setup suggests a tight contest with limited attacking risk, as both teams seek to avoid defeat rather than push aggressively for a win. This match is likely to be a low-scoring affair with tight defensive discipline on display.

BT4Y best bet

Under 2.5 Goals

  • PRO Vercelli averages only 1 goal scored and concedes 1.8 per game recently.
  • Lecco scores slightly more at 1.2 goals per game but concedes 1.4, indicating defensive solidity.
  • Both teams have a low BTTS rate for PRO Vercelli (40%) and moderate for Lecco (60%).
  • PRO Vercelli’s Over 2.5 Goals rate is just 40%, suggesting fewer high-scoring matches.
  • The head-to-head average goals over 10 matches is 2, supporting a low-scoring trend.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Under 2.5 Goals with a 61.8% chance, reflecting both teams' recent low scoring and defensive cautiousness. PRO Vercelli’s limited attacking output and Lecco’s moderate defensive record combine to reduce the likelihood of a high-scoring game. The head-to-head history averaging 2 goals per match reinforces this expectation. The current at 1.85 offer positive value, aligning well with the tactical context of a tight, low-tempo Serie C fixture. No data limitations affect in this pick.

Model Probability61.8% model chance vs 54.1% implied (+7.7 pts)
Strong positive
Recent Scoring TrendsLow goals scored and conceded by both teams
Strong positive
Head-to-Head Average Goals2 goals per match over last 10 meetings
Positive
BTTS RatesModerate to low BTTS rates, especially PRO Vercelli at 40%
Positive
Price Value61.8% model chance vs 54.1% implied (+7.7 pts)
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Under 2.5 Goals is a sensible selection given the defensive caution and low scoring trends of both PRO Vercelli and Lecco. The teams’ recent form and head-to-head history point to a tight, low-scoring match where neither side is likely to commit heavily forward. This bet aligns well with the tactical and statistical profile of the fixture.

Main risk

A slower tempo or weaker chance quality would make the goals market harder to justify at the current price.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Under 2.5 Goals rationale

“This fixture’s low scoring history and cautious recent form from both sides make Under 2.5 Goals a logical choice. The teams prioritize defensive stability, which should limit goal-scoring opportunities and keep the match tight.”

Key Data Signals

Under 2.5 Goals evidence

PRO Vercelli averages only 1 goal scored and concedes 1.8 per game recently.

Lecco scores slightly more at 1.2 goals per game but concedes 1.4, indicating defensive solidity.

Both teams have a low BTTS rate for PRO Vercelli (40%) and moderate for Lecco (60%).

What To Watch In The Data

Under 2.5 Goals notes

  • Over the last 10 head-to-head meetings, the average goals per game is 2, indicating a trend toward low-scoring matches.
  • This sample suggests a tempo and tactical setup that limits goal opportunities, with both teams historically cautious in attack.
  • The trend supports the likelihood of Under 2.5 Goals in this upcoming encounter.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

PRO Vercelli

LWDLD
Last 51W 2D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 3D 4L
09 Oct 2026A Union Brescia0-2
03 Oct 2026H Athletic Carpi2-0
26 Sep 2026A Giana Erminio1-1
21 Sep 2026A Trento0-4
17 Sep 2026H Alcione2-2

Lecco

DDLDW
Last 51W 3D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 4D 3L
11 Oct 2026H Alcione1-1
04 Oct 2026H Union Brescia2-2
26 Sep 2026A Cittadella0-3
20 Sep 2026H Pergolettese0-0
17 Sep 2026A Desenzano Calvina3-1
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBetUK guide price · Model 76% vs implied 71% · edge +4.9 pts
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
Load more odds for this section
Lecco Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 58%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
Lecco to WinBetUK guide price · model 49%
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 63%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
PRO Vercelli Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 45%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
PRO Vercelli to WinBetUK guide price · model 35%
2.62
Check odds @ 2.62
DrawBet365 guide price · model 28%
3.1
Check odds @ 3.1
Recent form data shows PRO Vercelli scoring only 1 goal in their last five matches and conceding 1.8 per game, indicating defensive vulnerability but limited offensive threat. Lecco’s 1.2 goals scored and 1.4 conceded per game reflect a balanced but cautious approach. Both teams’ low Over 2.5 Goals rates (40% and 60%) reinforce the expectation of a tight, low-scoring match.

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Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

PRO Vercelli1
Avg goals scored
Lecco1.2
PRO Vercelli1.8
Avg goals conceded
Lecco1.4
PRO Vercelli40%
BTTS rate
Lecco60%
PRO Vercelli40%
Over 2.5 goals
Lecco60%
Market aligned with main pickUnder 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · Model 62% vs implied 54% · edge +7.7 pts
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 63%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 42%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 41%
2
Check odds @ 2
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 60%
1.28
Check odds @ 1.28
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 24%
3.25
Check odds @ 3.25
Goal and BTTS trends indicate a low-scoring encounter. PRO Vercelli’s 40% Over 2.5 Goals rate and BTTS rate suggest matches often end with fewer goals and sometimes only one side scoring. Lecco’s slightly higher rates at 60% show more openness but still moderate scoring. The head-to-head average of 2 goals per match over 10 games supports a cautious attacking approach from both sides.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 63% vs implied 58% · edge +5.5 pts
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Load more odds for this section
Lecco Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 58%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
Lecco to WinBetUK guide price · model 49%
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
PRO Vercelli Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 45%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
PRO Vercelli to WinBetUK guide price · model 35%
2.62
Check odds @ 2.62
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 42%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
DrawBet365 guide price · model 28%
3.1
Check odds @ 3.1
The 61.8% for Under 2.5 Goals sits against roughly 54.1% implied by the current price (+7.7 pts). The Over 2.5 trend is 40% for PRO Vercelli and 60% for Lecco, so the goals angle is not just a price call.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

40%PRO Vercelli Over 2.5
60%Lecco Over 2.5
2H2H avg goals
Over the last 10 head-to-head meetings, the average goals per game is 2, indicating a trend toward low-scoring matches. This sample suggests a tempo and tactical setup that limits goal opportunities, with both teams historically cautious in attack. The trend supports the likelihood of Under 2.5 Goals in this upcoming encounter.

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