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Portugal crestPortugal
v
Uzbekistan crestUzbekistan

World Cup | Tue 23 Jun, 18:00

Portugal v Uzbekistan Stats

Data last updated: Wed 15 Jul 2026, 10:57 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Portugal face Uzbekistan in World Cup on Tue 23 Jun, 18:00. Portugal meet Uzbekistan at Houston Stadium on 24 June 2026 in a Group K match that already carries the uncomfortable weight of consequence. Portugal’s incredible run of twenty consecutive home matches without defeat heavily influences the main outcome market.

BT4Y best bet

Your poison, as the saying goes — although against Portugal, the menu can look rather cruel

  • At 9/2, Draw implies roughly 18%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 26%.
  • Portugal average 2.55 goals per game across 11 matches, with 28 goals scored and 14 conceded.
  • Portugal have the stronger recent points return, taking 1 points from the sample compared with 0 for Uzbekistan.
  • Portugal have the cleaner defensive sample at 1 conceded per match, which helps the Draw angle more than a raw possession edge.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 26% for Draw sits against roughly 18% implied by the current price. Portugal have the stronger recent points return, taking 1 points from the sample compared with 0 for Uzbekistan. Portugal average that scoring level per game across 11 matches, with that scoring level scored and 14 conceded.

Model chance vs price26% model chance against roughly 18% implied
Positive
Portugal have the stronger recent points return, taking 1 points.Visible data support
Positive
Portugal have the cleaner defensive sample at 1 conceded per.Visible data support
Positive
Portugal average 2.55 goals per game across 11 matches.Article support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Draw is the preferred angle because portugal average that scoring level per game across 11 matches, with that scoring level scored and 14 conceded. Portugal have the stronger recent points return, taking 1 points from the sample compared with 0 for Uzbekistan. However, Uzbekistan are defensively resilient, keeping four clean sheets in six matches and avoiding any defeat greater than two goals since 2023.

Main risk

However, Uzbekistan are defensively resilient, keeping four clean sheets in six matches and avoiding any defeat greater than two goals since 2023.

Key Data Signals

Draw evidence

Portugal average 2.55 goals per game across 11 matches, with 28 goals scored and 14 conceded.

Portugal have the stronger recent points return, taking 1 points from the sample compared with 0 for Uzbekistan.

Portugal have the cleaner defensive sample at 1 conceded per match, which helps the Draw angle more than a raw possession edge.

What To Watch In The Data

Draw notes

    Corners, cards and shots

    Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

    Portugal5
    Avg corners for
    Uzbekistan3
    Portugal9
    Avg total corners
    Uzbekistan7
    Portugal3
    Avg yellow cards
    Uzbekistan1
    Portugal7
    Avg shots
    Uzbekistan8
    Best odds for this sectionOver 3.5 CardsBetfred guide price · Model 64% vs implied 48% · edge +16.4 pts
    2.1
    Check odds @ 2.1
    Load more odds for this section
    Over 10.5 CornersBetfred guide price
    2.38
    Check odds @ 2.38
    Over 9.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 47%
    1.9
    Check odds @ 1.9
    Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 53%
    1.5
    Check odds @ 1.5
    Over 3.5 Cards needs a clear match pattern behind it. For corners, that means territory, wide deliveries and blocked shots; for cards, it means duels and transition fouls; for shots, it means repeat box entries rather than harmless possession.

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    World Cup fixtures and predictionsrelated match predictioncorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting anglesstats dashboardfootball analysis hubprediction centrebest bets researchacca fixture filtering
    Goals, BTTS and over/under

    Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

    Portugal1
    Avg goals scored
    Uzbekistan1
    Portugal1
    Avg goals conceded
    Uzbekistan3
    Portugal100%
    BTTS rate
    Uzbekistan100%
    Portugal0%
    Over 2.5 goals
    Uzbekistan100%
    Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 76% vs implied 42% · edge +34 pts
    2.38
    Check odds @ 2.38
    Load more odds for this section
    Under 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 54%
    2.38
    Check odds @ 2.38
    Over 1.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 68%
    1.17
    Check odds @ 1.17
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 50%
    1.57
    Check odds @ 1.57
    Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 32%
    2.38
    Check odds @ 2.38
    BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 28%
    1.53
    Check odds @ 1.53
    Player stats

    Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

    Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

    Open Match Centre player odds

    Market odds

    Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

    Market aligned with main pickDrawBetMGM guide price · Model 26% vs implied 14% · edge +11.3 pts
    7
    Check odds @ 7
    Load more odds for this section
    BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 76%
    2.38
    Check odds @ 2.38
    Uzbekistan Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 42%
    7
    Check odds @ 7
    Over 3.5 CardsBetfred guide price · model 64%
    2.1
    Check odds @ 2.1
    Uzbekistan to WinBet365 guide price · model 27%
    15
    Check odds @ 15
    Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 53%
    1.5
    Check odds @ 1.5
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 50%
    1.57
    Check odds @ 1.57
    Draw is positive value at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
    Recent form

    Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

    Portugal

    D
    Last 50W 1D 0L
    Last 5 record
    Last 100W 1D 0L
    17 Jun 2026H Congo DR1-1

    Uzbekistan

    L
    Last 50W 0D 1L
    Last 5 record
    Last 100W 0D 1L
    18 Jun 2026H Colombia1-3
    Market aligned with main pickDrawBetMGM guide price · Model 26% vs implied 14% · edge +11.3 pts
    7
    Check odds @ 7
    Load more odds for this section
    Away / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 52%
    4.5
    Check odds @ 4.5
    Uzbekistan Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 42%
    7
    Check odds @ 7
    Uzbekistan to WinBet365 guide price · model 27%
    15
    Check odds @ 15
    Home / DrawBetUK guide price · model 83%
    1.03
    Check odds @ 1.03
    Portugal Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 66%
    1.1
    Check odds @ 1.1
    Portugal to WinBetMGM guide price · model 57%
    1.18
    Check odds @ 1.18
    Head-to-head

    Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

    0Portugal wins
    0Draws
    0Uzbekistan wins
    Market aligned with main pickDrawBetMGM guide price · Model 26% vs implied 14% · edge +11.3 pts
    7
    Check odds @ 7
    Load more odds for this section
    BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 76%
    2.38
    Check odds @ 2.38
    Uzbekistan to WinBet365 guide price · model 27%
    15
    Check odds @ 15
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 50%
    1.57
    Check odds @ 1.57
    Portugal to WinBetMGM guide price · model 57%
    1.18
    Check odds @ 1.18
    There is no strong recent head-to-head sample for Draw, which makes current output, injuries and market timing more important than historic meetings.
    Season team stats

    World Cup

    Portugal5
    Played
    Uzbekistan3
    Portugal1.6
    Avg goals for
    Uzbekistan0.7
    Portugal0.6
    Avg goals against
    Uzbekistan3.7
    Portugal2
    Clean sheets
    Uzbekistan0
    Best odds for this sectionUzbekistan Draw No BetBetUK guide price · Model 42% vs implied 14% · edge +27.7 pts
    7
    Check odds @ 7
    Load more odds for this section
    Uzbekistan to WinBet365 guide price · model 27%
    15
    Check odds @ 15
    Portugal Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 66%
    1.1
    Check odds @ 1.1
    Portugal to WinBetMGM guide price · model 57%
    1.18
    Check odds @ 1.18
    Season data supports Uzbekistan Draw No Bet when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.
    League standings snapshot

    Current table context.

    PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
    2Portugal531205
    4Uzbekistan03003-9
    World Cup standings are background only here: the useful read is whether the form and chance profile translate into control, territory and clear openings in this specific fixture.
    Key match trends

    Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

    0%Portugal Over 2.5
    100%Uzbekistan Over 2.5
    -H2H avg goals
    The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Portugal sit at 0% and Uzbekistan sit at 100%, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

    Related football research

    Fixture links

    Prediction context

    Portugal v Uzbekistan prediction

    Open the full betting preview for the editorial pick, odds context and final selection.

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    Betting context

    Start with the clearest numbers above, then check live odds, team news and the full prediction before staking.

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