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Portland Timbers crestPortland Timbers
v
Houston Dynamo crestHouston Dynamo

Major League Soccer | Mon 02 Nov, 02:45

Portland Timbers v Houston Dynamo Stats

Data last updated: Sun 01 Nov 2026, 07:54 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Portland Timbers face Houston Dynamo in a Major League Soccer clash where attacking intent and recent scoring form set the stage for an open encounter. Both teams have averaged close to 1.7 goals per game this season and maintain a 60% rate for matches exceeding 2.5 goals, indicating a shared tendency for high-scoring affairs. Portland's 11th-place standing contrasts with Houston's 5th, but both sides have shown offensive capabilities that could unlock defenses. The fixture promises tactical openness with potential for multiple goal-scoring opportunities, making goal markets particularly relevant.

BT4Y best bet

Over 3.5 Goals

  • Both teams average 60% over 2.5 goals rate this season
  • Portland Timbers average 14.2 shots per game with 6.2 on target
  • Houston Dynamo average 9.6 shots per game with 2.8 on target
  • Recent head-to-head matches average 2.9 goals per game
  • Key attackers Guilherme and K. Kelsy have strong goal threat profiles

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model identifies Over 3.5 Goals as a slightly positive value bet with a 43.1% chance versus a 42% implied market chance, supported by both teams' attacking statistics and recent form. Portland and Houston both maintain a 60% rate for matches over 2.5 goals, and their average shots and shots on target per game underline offensive pressure. The head-to-head average of 2.9 goals per match further supports a high-scoring game. No data limitations affect , making this a well-supported selection with standard stake guidance.

Model Chance43.1% model chance vs 42% implied (+1.1 pts)
Positive
Implied Market Chance43.1% model chance vs 42% implied (+1.1 pts)
Neutral
Portland Over 2.5 Goals Rate60%
Positive
Houston Over 2.5 Goals Rate60%
Positive
Average Shots per Game (Portland)14.2
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Expect an open game with both Portland Timbers and Houston Dynamo pushing forward aggressively, reflected in their strong attacking stats and recent scoring trends. The combination of their offensive output and history of high-scoring matches suggests Over 3.5 Goals is a compelling choice for this fixture.

Main risk

A slower tempo or weaker chance quality would make the goals market harder to justify at the current price.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Goal markets and attacking profiles

“This matchup features two sides with clear attacking intent and solid shot volumes, making a high-scoring game likely. The presence of key goal threats like Guilherme and Kelsy adds to the potential for multiple goals.”

Key Data Signals

Over 3.5 Goals evidence

Both teams average 60% over 2.5 goals rate this season

Portland Timbers average 14.2 shots per game with 6.2 on target

Houston Dynamo average 9.6 shots per game with 2.8 on target

Recent head-to-head matches average 2.9 goals per game

What To Watch In The Data

Over 3.5 Goals notes

  • Over the last ten head-to-head meetings, the average goals per game stand at 2.9, indicating a history of relatively high-scoring encounters.
  • This trend suggests that the tempo and attacking intent in this fixture favor a goal-rich outcome, consistent with the Over 3.5 Goals selection.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Portland Timbers1.8
Avg goals scored
Houston Dynamo1.6
Portland Timbers1.8
Avg goals conceded
Houston Dynamo1.4
Portland Timbers60%
BTTS rate
Houston Dynamo60%
Portland Timbers60%
Over 2.5 goals
Houston Dynamo60%
Market aligned with main pickOver 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · Model 43% vs implied 42% · edge +1.1 pts
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
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BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 67%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 79%
1.17
Check odds @ 1.17
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 61%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
Under 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 43%
2.35
Check odds @ 2.35
BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 37%
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
Both Portland Timbers and Houston Dynamo have a 60% rate of matches exceeding 2.5 goals this season, and their head-to-head average of 2.9 goals per game supports an open, goal-rich encounter. Both teams also have a 60% BTTS rate, indicating likelihood of goals at both ends.

Continue the research

Useful next reads

Major League Soccer hubcorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting anglesstats dashboardfootball analysis hubprediction centrebest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionPortland Timbers Draw No BetBet365 guide price · Model 57% vs implied 48% · edge +9.2 pts
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
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BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 67%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
Houston Dynamo to WinBet365 guide price · model 37%
4
Check odds @ 4
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 61%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 62%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
DrawBetUK guide price · model 29%
4.2
Check odds @ 4.2
Portland Timbers to WinBetMGM guide price · model 47%
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
The 43.1% for Over 3.5 Goals sits against roughly 42% implied by the current price (+1.1 pts). The Over 2.5 trend is 60% for Portland Timbers and 60% for Houston Dynamo, so the goals angle is not just a price call.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Portland Timbers

WWDLD
Last 52W 2D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 3D 4L
29 Oct 2026A St. Louis City3-2
25 Oct 2026H Charlotte3-2
18 Oct 2026H Colorado Rapids0-0
15 Oct 2026A Los Angeles Galaxy0-2
11 Oct 2026A Sporting Kansas City3-3

Houston Dynamo

WDDDD
Last 51W 4D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 6D 2L
29 Oct 2026A Seattle Sounders1-0
25 Oct 2026H Minnesota United FC0-0
18 Oct 2026H FC Dallas2-2
15 Oct 2026A San Diego3-3
11 Oct 2026A Minnesota United FC2-2
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBetMGM guide price · Model 66% vs implied 51% · edge +14.9 pts
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
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Portland Timbers Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 57%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Houston Dynamo to WinBet365 guide price · model 37%
4
Check odds @ 4
Home / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 76%
1.25
Check odds @ 1.25
DrawBetUK guide price · model 29%
4.2
Check odds @ 4.2
Portland Timbers to WinBetMGM guide price · model 47%
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
Houston Dynamo Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 47%
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
Recent form data shows Portland Timbers with 8 points and Houston Dynamo with 7 points from their last matches, both maintaining a 60% over 2.5 goals rate. This consistent scoring trend underlines the likelihood of a high-scoring game in this fixture.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

60%Portland Timbers Over 2.5
60%Houston Dynamo Over 2.5
2.9H2H avg goals
Over the last ten head-to-head meetings, the average goals per game stand at 2.9, indicating a history of relatively high-scoring encounters. This trend suggests that the tempo and attacking intent in this fixture favor a goal-rich outcome, consistent with the Over 3.5 Goals selection.

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