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Port Vale crestPort Vale
v
Scunthorpe crestScunthorpe

FA Cup | Sat 07 Nov, 15:00

Port Vale v Scunthorpe Stats

Data last updated: Fri 06 Nov 2026, 07:34 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Port Vale and Scunthorpe meet in this FA Cup tie with both sides showing contrasting recent form and attacking intent. Scunthorpe come in with a strong over 2.5 goals rate of 100% in recent matches, having scored three goals while conceding one in their latest outing. Port Vale's data is limited, but their attacking players like O. Figueroa suggest an offensive approach. The fixture promises open play and goal-scoring opportunities, with both teams likely to push forward in pursuit of cup progression.

BT4Y best bet

Over 2.5 Goals

  • Scunthorpe has a 100% over 2.5 goals rate recently, indicating high-scoring matches.
  • The last 10 meetings between these teams averaged 2.5 goals per game.
  • Port Vale's attackers, including O. Figueroa, show strong shot volumes and goal threat.
  • Player-level data reveals multiple attacking players with significant shot and shot-on-target rates.
  • The model estimates a 78% chance for over 2.5 goals, well above the implied chance of 57.8%.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model strongly favors over 2.5 goals with a 78% probability, supported by Scunthorpe's recent 100% over 2.5 goals rate and an average of 2.5 goals in the last 10 head-to-head matches. Port Vale's attacking players contribute high shot volumes, enhancing the likelihood of multiple goals. Although Port Vale's data is limited, the offensive signals and Scunthorpe's consistent scoring create a compelling case for a high-scoring game. The current offer positive value with a 20.2% edge, making this a solid selection.

Scunthorpe recent over 2.5 rate100%
Strong positive
Head-to-head average goals2.5 goals per match
Positive
Port Vale attacking shot volumeO. Lynch 9.47 shots/90
Positive
Model probability74.9% model chance vs 59.9% implied (+15 pts)
Strong positive
Price value edge74.9% model chance vs 59.9% implied (+15 pts)
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

This FA Cup clash is poised for goals given Scunthorpe's recent scoring form and Port Vale's attacking shot volume led by players like O. The combination of offensive intent and historical goal averages supports expecting a lively, high-scoring encounter. The over 2.5 goals selection aligns well with the tactical and statistical outlook of both teams.

Main risk

A slower tempo or weaker chance quality would make the goals market harder to justify at the current price.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Goal-scoring potential and attacking dynamics

“Scunthorpe's consistent goal-scoring and Port Vale's active attacking players suggest this fixture will feature multiple goals, making over 2.5 goals a logical and data-backed choice.”

Key Data Signals

Over 2.5 Goals evidence

Scunthorpe has a 100% over 2.5 goals rate recently, indicating high-scoring matches.

The last 10 meetings between these teams averaged 2.5 goals per game.

Port Vale's attackers, including O. Figueroa, show strong shot volumes and goal threat.

Player-level data reveals multiple attacking players with significant shot and shot-on-target rates.

What To Watch In The Data

Over 2.5 Goals notes

  • The last 10 meetings between Port Vale and Scunthorpe have averaged 2.5 goals, indicating a historical trend toward open, goal-filled matches.
  • This trend, combined with recent form and attacking player data, suggests a fast-paced game with multiple scoring chances and goals.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Port Vale

Last 50W 0D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 0D 0L

No recent match sample is available for Port Vale yet.

Scunthorpe

W
Last 51W 0D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 0D 0L
17 Oct 2026A Boston United3-1
Best odds for this sectionScunthorpe Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · Model 42% vs implied 29% · edge +13 pts
3.45
Check odds @ 3.45
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Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 78%
1.17
Check odds @ 1.17
Away / DrawBetUK guide price · model 45%
2.3
Check odds @ 2.3
Port Vale to WinBetMGM guide price · model 56%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
Scunthorpe to WinBet365 guide price · model 22%
5.25
Check odds @ 5.25
Port Vale Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 64%
1.3
Check odds @ 1.3
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 22%
4.1
Check odds @ 4.1
Scunthorpe's recent form is marked by scoring three goals and conceding only one, with a perfect over 2.5 goals record in recent games. Port Vale's form data is sparse, but their attacking player stats suggest offensive intent. This contrast points to a match likely to feature multiple goals, driven by Scunthorpe's scoring consistency and Port Vale's attacking efforts.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Port Vale-
Avg goals scored
Scunthorpe3
Port Vale-
Avg goals conceded
Scunthorpe1
Port Vale-
BTTS rate
Scunthorpe100%
Port Vale-
Over 2.5 goals
Scunthorpe100%
Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · Model 75% vs implied 60% · edge +15 pts
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
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BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 72%
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 88%
1.2
Check odds @ 1.2
Over 3.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 53%
2.62
Check odds @ 2.62
Under 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 26%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
BTTS NoBetUK guide price · model 28%
2
Check odds @ 2
Scunthorpe's recent matches all featured over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring, highlighting an open style. The last 10 head-to-head games averaged 2.5 goals, supporting expectations for multiple goals and potential BTTS scenarios in this cup tie.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · Model 75% vs implied 60% · edge +15 pts
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 72%
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
Scunthorpe Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 42%
3.45
Check odds @ 3.45
Port Vale to WinBetMGM guide price · model 56%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
Scunthorpe to WinBet365 guide price · model 22%
5.25
Check odds @ 5.25
Port Vale Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 64%
1.3
Check odds @ 1.3
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 22%
4.1
Check odds @ 4.1
The 74.9% for Over 2.5 Goals sits against roughly 59.9% implied by the current price (+15 pts).
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

-Port Vale Over 2.5
100%Scunthorpe Over 2.5
2.5H2H avg goals
The last 10 meetings between Port Vale and Scunthorpe have averaged 2.5 goals, indicating a historical trend toward open, goal-filled matches. This trend, combined with recent form and attacking player data, suggests a fast-paced game with multiple scoring chances and goals.

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