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Port Vale crestPort Vale
v
Chesterfield crestChesterfield

League Two | Sat 17 Oct, 15:00

Port Vale v Chesterfield Stats

Data last updated: Sun 18 Oct 2026, 11:07 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Chesterfield approach this EFL Trophy clash with strong attacking momentum, having scored in six consecutive matches and secured three straight wins under Paul Cook. Their recent defensive improvements, including a clean sheet against York City, add a new dimension to their play. Port Vale, conversely, face scoring challenges, averaging just 0.5 goals in their last six outings and missing key attacking players due to injuries and international duty. Tactical rotations on both sides introduce uncertainty, but Chesterfield's offensive consistency against Vale's defensive vulnerabilities sets the stage for a contest where both teams are likely to find the net.

BT4Y best bet

Both Teams to Score

  • Chesterfield have scored in six consecutive matches, netting 14 goals in total.
  • Port Vale average only 0.5 goals per match across their last six games.
  • Chesterfield's defense has conceded 10 goals in the same period, indicating vulnerability.
  • Port Vale's recent away defeats and missing key attackers suggest limited scoring but potential to breach Chesterfield's rotated defense.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model identifies a 66.7% chance for both teams to score, reflecting Chesterfield's consistent scoring streak and Port Vale's ability to capitalize on defensive rotations. Despite Port Vale's low scoring average, Chesterfield's defensive changes and recent goal concessions increase the likelihood of both sides scoring. The price is fair with no warning flags, making this a balanced selection based on attacking and defensive dynamics. Player-level data supports the presence of goal threats on both teams, reinforcing the BTTS scenario.

Chesterfield scoring consistency6 consecutive matches with goals, 14 total
Strong positive
Port Vale low scoring average0.5 goals per match last 6 games
Negative
Chesterfield defensive concessions10 goals conceded in last 6 matches
Positive
Price vs model chance66.7% model chance vs 59.9% implied (+6.8 pts)
Neutral

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Both teams have shown contrasting offensive profiles, with Chesterfield's strong scoring run meeting Port Vale's recent goal drought. Tactical rotations and defensive vulnerabilities on both sides suggest a match where both teams can find the net. The BTTS pick reflects this balance, supported by recent form and player attacking roles.

Main risk

Clean-sheet strength on one side can quickly weaken the shared-scoring case.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · BTTS rationale

“Chesterfield's attacking consistency combined with Port Vale's defensive rotation creates a scenario ripe for goals at both ends. Despite Vale's scoring struggles, their opportunity against a reshuffled defense makes both teams scoring a compelling outcome.”

Key Data Signals

Both Teams to Score evidence

Chesterfield have scored in six consecutive matches, netting 14 goals in total.

Port Vale average only 0.5 goals per match across their last six games.

Chesterfield's defense has conceded 10 goals in the same period, indicating vulnerability.

Port Vale's recent away defeats and missing key attackers suggest limited scoring but potential to breach Chesterfield's rotated defense.

What To Watch In The Data

Both Teams to Score notes

  • In the last ten meetings between these teams, the average goals per game is 2.4, with a tendency towards matches featuring goals from both sides.
  • Chesterfield's recent matches have an 80% Over 2.5 goals rate, while Port Vale's is 20%, suggesting a tempo favoring multiple goals but tempered by Port Vale's defensive approach.
  • This trend supports a lively game with goal opportunities for both teams.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Port Vale0.6
Avg goals scored
Chesterfield2.2
Port Vale1.2
Avg goals conceded
Chesterfield1.4
Port Vale20%
BTTS rate
Chesterfield80%
Port Vale20%
Over 2.5 goals
Chesterfield80%
Market aligned with main pickBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 67% vs implied 60% · edge +6.8 pts
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Load more odds for this section
Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 58%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Over 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 46%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 64%
1.25
Check odds @ 1.25
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 28%
3
Check odds @ 3
BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 37%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Chesterfield have scored in every one of their last six matches, averaging over two goals per game, while conceding 10 goals in that span. Port Vale's low scoring average of 0.5 goals per match contrasts with their ability to score in some recent encounters. This combination suggests a game with goals at both ends but likely under 3.5 total goals, fitting the BTTS Yes and Under 3.5 goals context.

Continue the research

Useful next reads

League Two fixtures and predictionsPort Vale v Chesterfield predictioncorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting angleslatest football statsmain football hubtoday's predictionsbest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 67% vs implied 60% · edge +6.8 pts
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Load more odds for this section
Chesterfield Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 70%
1.82
Check odds @ 1.82
Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 75%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Chesterfield to WinBetMGM guide price · model 55%
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
Port Vale Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 45%
1.98
Check odds @ 1.98
Over 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 46%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
DrawBet365 guide price · model 21%
3.4
Check odds @ 3.4
The 66.7% for Both Teams to Score sits against roughly 59.9% implied by the current price (+6.8 pts). Port Vale show a 20% BTTS rate and Chesterfield show a 80% BTTS rate, which is the right starting point for this market. Selection: BTTS Yes.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Port Vale

WLWLL
Last 52W 0D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 2D 4L
10 Oct 2026H Grimsby1-0
19 Sep 2026A Walsall0-2
12 Sep 2026H Exeter City1-0
05 Sep 2026A Salford City0-1
01 Sep 2026A Swindon Town1-3

Chesterfield

DWLWW
Last 53W 1D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 104W 3D 3L
10 Oct 2026A Crawley Town2-2
03 Oct 2026H Tranmere4-2
26 Sep 2026A Cheltenham1-2
19 Sep 2026H York2-0
12 Sep 2026A Oldham2-1
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBetMGM guide price · Model 84% vs implied 71% · edge +12.6 pts
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
Load more odds for this section
Chesterfield Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 70%
1.82
Check odds @ 1.82
Chesterfield to WinBetMGM guide price · model 55%
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
Port Vale Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 45%
1.98
Check odds @ 1.98
Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 48%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
DrawBet365 guide price · model 21%
3.4
Check odds @ 3.4
Port Vale to WinBetfred guide price · model 27%
2.62
Check odds @ 2.62
Chesterfield's recent form is impressive, with 10 points from their last matches and consistent goal scoring in six consecutive games. Port Vale have collected 6 points but struggle offensively, scoring only 0.6 goals per game and achieving BTTS outcomes in just 20% of matches. This contrast highlights Chesterfield's offensive momentum against Port Vale's scoring difficulties, shaping the BTTS pick.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

20%Port Vale Over 2.5
80%Chesterfield Over 2.5
2.4H2H avg goals
In the last ten meetings between these teams, the average goals per game is 2.4, with a tendency towards matches featuring goals from both sides. Chesterfield's recent matches have an 80% Over 2.5 goals rate, while Port Vale's is 20%, suggesting a tempo favoring multiple goals but tempered by Port Vale's defensive approach. This trend supports a lively game with goal opportunities for both teams.

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