Football Stats Hub

Pogon Szczecin crestPogon Szczecin
v
Radomiak Radom crestRadomiak Radom

Ekstraklasa | Sat 24 Oct, 16:30

Pogon Szczecin v Radomiak Radom Stats

Data last updated: Sun 25 Oct 2026, 16:14 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Pogon Szczecin hosts Radomiak Radom in an Ekstraklasa clash where the home side's solid recent form contrasts sharply with the visitors' struggles. Pogon has accumulated 21 points and sits 4th in the table, boasting a strong defensive record and consistent goal scoring. Radomiak Radom, positioned 16th with just 8 points, have conceded heavily and scored sparingly. The tactical setup suggests Pogon will control possession and press high, aiming to exploit Radomiak's defensive vulnerabilities. This match carries significant stakes as Pogon push to consolidate their top-four position while Radomiak fight to escape relegation zone pressure.

BT4Y best bet

Pogon Szczecin to Win

  • Pogon Szczecin ranks 4th with 21 points; Radomiak Radom is 16th with 8 points.
  • Pogon concedes only 0.4 goals per game versus Radomiak's 2.2, showing defensive strength.
  • Pogon averages 14.4 shots per game with 4.4 on target, indicating attacking potency.
  • Radomiak's recent form yields just 1 point and 0.6 goals per game, highlighting struggles.
  • Head-to-head average goals stand at 3.2, suggesting potential for open play but Pogon's control is key.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model assigns a 74% chance for Pogon Szczecin to win, reflecting their superior form, defensive solidity, and home advantage. Pogon's ability to limit goals conceded to 0.4 per game contrasts with Radomiak's 2.2, indicating a strong defensive edge. The home side's offensive metrics, including 14.4 shots per game and high shot accuracy, support their scoring potential. Radomiak's poor recent form and low points tally further tilt the balance. The price at 1.7 offers positive value given the 15.2% edge over implied , making Pogon Szczecin a confident selection for victory.

Model Win Probability74%
Strong positive
Defensive Strength0.4 goals conceded per game (Pogon) vs 2.2 (Radomiak)
Strong positive
Recent FormPogon 21 points vs Radomiak 8 points
Strong positive
Shooting and AttackPogon 14.4 shots, 4.4 on target per game
Positive
Price Value Edge74% model chance vs 59.9% implied (+14.1 pts)
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Pogon Szczecin's tactical discipline and strong defensive record provide a solid foundation for victory against a struggling Radomiak Radom side. The home team's superior form and attacking threat, combined with Radomiak's defensive frailties, make Pogon the clear favorite to secure three points in this fixture.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome

“Pogon Szczecin's blend of defensive resilience and attacking efficiency positions them well to capitalize on Radomiak Radom's vulnerabilities, making their win a logical outcome in this matchup.”

Key Data Signals

Pogon Szczecin to Win evidence

Pogon Szczecin ranks 4th with 21 points; Radomiak Radom is 16th with 8 points.

Pogon concedes only 0.4 goals per game versus Radomiak's 2.2, showing defensive strength.

Pogon averages 14.4 shots per game with 4.4 on target, indicating attacking potency.

Radomiak's recent form yields just 1 point and 0.6 goals per game, highlighting struggles.

What To Watch In The Data

Pogon Szczecin to Win notes

  • The last 10 head-to-head matches between these teams average 3.2 goals per game, indicating a tendency for open games.
  • However, Pogon's recent defensive solidity and Radomiak's scoring difficulties suggest this fixture may see fewer goals than historical averages, with tempo controlled by Pogon to limit Radomiak's chances.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Pogon Szczecin1.6
Avg goals scored
Radomiak Radom0.6
Pogon Szczecin0.4
Avg goals conceded
Radomiak Radom2.2
Pogon Szczecin40%
BTTS rate
Radomiak Radom40%
Pogon Szczecin20%
Over 2.5 goals
Radomiak Radom40%
Best odds for this sectionUnder 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · Model 57% vs implied 46% · edge +11.1 pts
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetUK guide price · model 57%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 47%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 65%
1.18
Check odds @ 1.18
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 47%
1.65
Check odds @ 1.65
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 29%
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
Given Pogon's defensive record conceding only 0.4 goals per game and Radomiak's struggles scoring, a 'BTTS No' scenario is plausible. The teams' combined low scoring rates and Pogon's control suggest limited goal exchanges, supporting a controlled goals environment rather than an open shootout.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Pogon Szczecin

WWWWD
Last 54W 1D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 106W 3D 1L
17 Oct 2026A GKS Katowice1-0
11 Oct 2026H Korona Kielce2-0
20 Sep 2026A Piast Gliwice2-1
13 Sep 2026H Wieczysta Kraków2-0
07 Sep 2026H Wisla Plock1-1

Radomiak Radom

LLLLD
Last 50W 1D 4L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 2D 7L
19 Oct 2026A Wisla Plock0-1
12 Oct 2026H Motor Lublin2-3
20 Sep 2026A Lech Poznan1-5
14 Sep 2026H Piast Gliwice0-2
05 Sep 2026A Widzew Łódź0-0
Market aligned with main pickPogon Szczecin to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 74% vs implied 60% · edge +14.1 pts
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Load more odds for this section
Pogon Szczecin Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 78%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
Home / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 86%
1.2
Check odds @ 1.2
Pogon Szczecin's recent form is strong, accumulating 13 points in their last matches with an average of 1.6 goals scored and only 0.4 conceded per game. In contrast, Radomiak Radom has managed just 1 point recently, scoring 0.6 goals but conceding 2.2 per game, underscoring their defensive vulnerabilities and poor momentum heading into this fixture.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickPogon Szczecin to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 74% vs implied 60% · edge +14.1 pts
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Load more odds for this section
Pogon Szczecin Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 78%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 72%
1.33
Check odds @ 1.33
BTTS YesBetUK guide price · model 57%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 47%
1.65
Check odds @ 1.65
The 74% for Pogon Szczecin to Win sits against roughly 59.9% implied by the current price (+14.1 pts). Pogon Szczecin have the stronger recent points return, taking 13 points from the sample compared with 1 for Radomiak Radom.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

20%Pogon Szczecin Over 2.5
40%Radomiak Radom Over 2.5
3.2H2H avg goals
The last 10 head-to-head matches between these teams average 3.2 goals per game, indicating a tendency for open games. However, Pogon's recent defensive solidity and Radomiak's scoring difficulties suggest this fixture may see fewer goals than historical averages, with tempo controlled by Pogon to limit Radomiak's chances.

Loading deeper match data…