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Plzen crestPlzen
v
Levski Sofia crestLevski Sofia

UEFA Europa League | Thu 22 Oct, 20:00

Plzen v Levski Sofia Stats

Data last updated: Wed 11 Nov 2026, 21:56 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Plzen face Levski Sofia in UEFA Europa League on Thu 22 Oct, 20:00. Viktoria Plzen welcome Levski Sofia to Doosan Arena on Thursday, 22 October, with both sides searching for their first Europa League victory of the campaign.

BT4Y match pick · price watch

Plzen to win

  • At 3/4, Plzen to win implies roughly 57%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 52%.
  • Plzen's consistent goal scoring and home give them the edge over Levski's limited attacking output.
  • Plzen have the stronger recent points return, taking 3 points from the sample compared with 1 for Levski Sofia.
  • Levski Sofia have the cleaner defensive sample at 1 conceded per match, which helps the Plzen to win angle more than a raw possession edge.
Price warning

Plzen to win is still the main football pick, but the current price is short: the market implies about 57% while the model sits nearer 52% (-5.3 pts). Keep staking reduced or wait for a better price unless final team news strengthens the selection. Better value alternative: Plzen Draw No Bet shows a +10.4 pts edge at 2.

Why This Pick Is Price-Sensitive

Football case vs market price

The 52% for Plzen to win sits against roughly 57% implied by the current price. Plzen have the stronger recent points return, taking 3 points from the sample compared with 1 for Levski Sofia. Plzen's consistent goal scoring and home give them the edge over Levski's limited attacking output.

Model chance vs price52% model chance against roughly 57% implied
Negative
Plzen have the stronger recent points return, taking 3 points.Visible data support
Positive
Levski Sofia have the cleaner defensive sample at 1 conceded.Visible data support
Positive
Plzen's consistent goal scoring and home give them the.Article support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Plzen Win is the preferred angle because plzen's consistent goal scoring and home give them the edge over Levski's limited attacking output. Plzen have the stronger recent points return, taking 3 points from the sample compared with 1 for Levski Sofia. Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Key Data Signals

Plzen to win evidence

Plzen's consistent goal scoring and home give them the edge over Levski's limited attacking output.

Plzen have the stronger recent points return, taking 3 points from the sample compared with 1 for Levski Sofia.

Levski Sofia have the cleaner defensive sample at 1 conceded per match, which helps the Plzen Win angle more than a raw possession edge.

What To Watch In The Data

Plzen to win notes

    Goals, BTTS and over/under

    Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

    Plzen1.5
    Avg goals scored
    Levski Sofia0.5
    Plzen2.25
    Avg goals conceded
    Levski Sofia1
    Plzen50%
    BTTS rate
    Levski Sofia50%
    Plzen100%
    Over 2.5 goals
    Levski Sofia0%
    Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 67% vs implied 60% · edge +6.8 pts
    1.67
    Check odds @ 1.67
    Load more odds for this section
    Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 54%
    2.1
    Check odds @ 2.1
    Over 1.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 68%
    1.22
    Check odds @ 1.22
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 50%
    1.73
    Check odds @ 1.73
    Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 32%
    2.75
    Check odds @ 2.75
    BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 37%
    2.1
    Check odds @ 2.1
    BTTS Yes is more of a watchlist angle than a must-bet: the BTTS rates are 50% for Plzen and 50% for Levski Sofia, so the price depends on both attacks contributing rather than the clean-sheet story.

    Continue the research

    Useful next reads

    UEFA Europa League fixtures and predictionsrelated match predictioncorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting anglesstats dashboardfootball analysis hubprediction centrebest bets researchacca fixture filtering
    Market odds

    Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

    Market aligned with main pickPlzen to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 52% vs implied 57% · edge -5.3 pts
    1.75
    Check odds @ 1.75
    Load more odds for this section
    Plzen Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 60%
    2
    Check odds @ 2
    BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 67%
    1.67
    Check odds @ 1.67
    Over 3.5 CardsBetMGM guide price · model 54%
    1.62
    Check odds @ 1.62
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 50%
    1.73
    Check odds @ 1.73
    Over 8.5 CornersBetUK guide price · model 52%
    1.57
    Check odds @ 1.57
    Plzen to Win is price-sensitive at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
    Recent form

    Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

    Plzen

    LLWL
    Last 51W 0D 3L
    Last 5 record
    Last 101W 0D 3L
    15 Oct 2026A Ferencvarosi TC1-2
    17 Sep 2026H Union St. Gilloise0-3
    27 Aug 2026H FK Crvena Zvezda5-1
    20 Aug 2026A FK Crvena Zvezda0-3

    Levski Sofia

    DL
    Last 50W 1D 1L
    Last 5 record
    Last 100W 1D 1L
    15 Oct 2026A NEC Nijmegen1-1
    17 Sep 2026H Red Bull Salzburg0-1
    Market aligned with main pickPlzen to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 52% vs implied 57% · edge -5.3 pts
    1.75
    Check odds @ 1.75
    Load more odds for this section
    Plzen Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 60%
    2
    Check odds @ 2
    Home / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 77%
    1.18
    Check odds @ 1.18
    Key match trends

    Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

    100%Plzen Over 2.5
    0%Levski Sofia Over 2.5
    -H2H avg goals
    The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Plzen sit at 100% and Levski Sofia sit at 0%, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

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