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Pisa crestPisa
v
Napoli crestNapoli

Serie A | Sun 17 May, 11:00

Pisa v Napoli Stats

Data last updated: Tue 28 Jul 2026, 02:08 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Pisa face Napoli in Serie A on Sun 17 May, 11:00. That is the atmosphere waiting inside Arena Garibaldi on Sunday afternoon as relegated Pisa host Napoli in Serie A’s penultimate round. Pisa look completely drained after seven straight defeats, managing just two goals in that dismal period.

BT4Y lean · price warning

Detailing the exact final score line at the conclusion of regular time

  • At 1/1, Detailing the exact final score line at the conclusion of regular time implies roughly 50%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 13%.
  • Pisa concede heavily but can preserve narrow defensive blocks early at home.
  • Pisa need the result edge to pair with scoring at both ends; recent points show Pisa on 0 and Napoli on 5.
  • The BTTS leg matters as much as the result leg here, with recent BTTS rates of 40% for Pisa and 40% for Napoli.
  • Detailing the exact final score line at the conclusion of regular time needs both attacks involved, so goals-for averages of 0.4 for Pisa and 1.4 for Napoli are central to the read.
Price warning

Detailing the exact final score line at the conclusion of regular time is still the main football pick, but the current price is short: the market implies about 50% while the model sits nearer 13% (-36.7 pts). Keep staking reduced or wait for a better price unless final team news strengthens the selection. Better value alternative: Napoli Draw No Bet shows a +15 pts edge at 2.02.

Why This Pick Is Price-Sensitive

Football case vs market price

The 13% for Detailing the exact final score line at the conclusion of regular time sits against roughly 50% implied by the current price. Pisa need the result edge to pair with scoring at both ends; recent points show Pisa on 0 and Napoli on 5. Pisa concede heavily but can preserve narrow defensive blocks early at home.

Model chance vs price13% model chance against roughly 50% implied
Negative
Pisa need the result edge to pair with scoring at.Visible data support
Positive
The BTTS leg matters as much as the result leg.Visible data support
Positive
Pisa concede heavily but can preserve narrow defensive blocks.Article support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Pisa Win & BTTS No is the preferred angle because pisa concede heavily but can preserve narrow defensive blocks early at home. Pisa need the result edge to pair with scoring at both ends; recent points show Pisa on 0 and Napoli on 5. Late team news, price movement and market liquidity are the main cautions before kick-off.

Main risk

Late team news, price movement and market liquidity are the main cautions before kick-off.

Key Data Signals

Detailing the exact final score line at the conclusion of regular time evidence

Pisa concede heavily but can preserve narrow defensive blocks early at home.

Pisa need the result edge to pair with scoring at both ends; recent points show Pisa on 0 and Napoli on 5.

The BTTS leg matters as much as the result leg here, with recent BTTS rates of 40% for Pisa and 40% for Napoli.

Pisa Win & BTTS No needs both attacks involved, so goals-for averages of 0.4 for Pisa and 1.4 for Napoli are central to the read.

What To Watch In The Data

Detailing the exact final score line at the conclusion of regular time notes

  • Use the article-led angle and the visible data together; the strongest signal is where both point to the same match pattern.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Pisa0.4
Avg goals scored
Napoli1.4
Pisa2.2
Avg goals conceded
Napoli1.2
Pisa40%
BTTS rate
Napoli40%
Pisa80%
Over 2.5 goals
Napoli40%
Best odds for this sectionOver 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · Model 83% vs implied 80% · edge +3.4 pts
1.25
Check odds @ 1.25
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Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 65%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 47%
3
Check odds @ 3
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 57%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
BTTS NoBetfred guide price · model 47%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 39%
2
Check odds @ 2
Over 1.5 Goals is more of a watchlist angle than a must-bet: recent Over 2.5 rates are 80% for Pisa and 40% for Napoli, so the goals line needs support from both scoring profiles.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickPisa to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 26% vs implied 11% · edge +15 pts
9.5
Check odds @ 9.5
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Over 3.5 CardsBetfred guide price · model 60%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 65%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 57%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Over 8.5 CornersBetfred guide price · model 56%
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
Pisa Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 45%
1.78
Check odds @ 1.78
Pisa to Win is positive value at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Pisa3.8
Avg corners for
Napoli7
Pisa8
Avg total corners
Napoli9.4
Pisa2.8
Avg yellow cards
Napoli0.6
Pisa10
Avg shots
Napoli15.8
Best odds for this sectionOver 3.5 CardsBetfred guide price · Model 60% vs implied 48% · edge +12.5 pts
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
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Over 8.5 CornersBetfred guide price · model 56%
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
Over 3.5 Cards needs a clear match pattern behind it. For corners, that means territory, wide deliveries and blocked shots; for cards, it means duels and transition fouls; for shots, it means repeat box entries rather than harmless possession.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Pisa

LLLLL
Last 50W 0D 5L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 0D 9L
10 May 2026A Cremonese0-3
01 May 2026H Lecce1-2
25 Apr 2026A Parma0-1
19 Apr 2026H Genoa1-2
10 Apr 2026A AS Roma0-3

Napoli

LDWLD
Last 51W 2D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 106W 2D 2L
11 May 2026H Bologna2-3
02 May 2026A Como0-0
24 Apr 2026H Cremonese4-0
18 Apr 2026H Lazio0-2
12 Apr 2026A Parma1-1
Market aligned with main pickHome / DrawBetMGM guide price · Model 47% vs implied 32% · edge +15 pts
3.17
Check odds @ 3.17
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Pisa to WinBetMGM guide price · model 26%
9.5
Check odds @ 9.5
Pisa Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 45%
1.78
Check odds @ 1.78
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

0Pisa wins
0Draws
1Napoli wins
22 Sep 2025Napoli v Pisa3-2
Market aligned with main pickPisa to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 26% vs implied 11% · edge +15 pts
9.5
Check odds @ 9.5
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Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 65%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 57%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
The head-to-head sample gives context for Pisa to Win, but it should not overrule the current tactical picture. If previous meetings show goals or momentum swings, they support the market only when the present form and line-ups point to the same game state.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

Open Match Centre player odds

Season team stats

Serie A

Pisa38
Played
Napoli38
Pisa0.7
Avg goals for
Napoli1.5
Pisa1.9
Avg goals against
Napoli0.9
Pisa5
Clean sheets
Napoli15
Market aligned with main pickPisa to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 26% vs implied 11% · edge +15 pts
9.5
Check odds @ 9.5
Load more odds for this section
Pisa Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 45%
1.78
Check odds @ 1.78
Season data supports Pisa to Win when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
2Napoli7638237822
20Pisa183821224-45
Pisa sit in position 20, while Napoli sit in position 2, so table pressure belongs in the Detailing the exact final score line at the conclusion of regular time assessment.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

80%Pisa Over 2.5
40%Napoli Over 2.5
5H2H avg goals
The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Pisa sit at 80% and Napoli sit at 40% with the H2H average at 5 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

Related football research

Fixture links

Prediction context

Pisa v Napoli prediction

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