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Pisa crestPisa
v
Empoli crestEmpoli

Coppa Italia | Mon 17 Aug, 17:00

Pisa v Empoli Stats

Data last updated: Sun 16 Aug 2026, 07:59 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

This Coppa Italia clash between Pisa and Empoli sets the stage for an open contest as both teams aim to progress in the knockout competition. With limited recent form data available, the fixture carries an element of unpredictability, but the tactical approach suggests both sides will seek to assert control and create scoring opportunities. The absence of detailed player and team stats means the match could hinge on attacking intent and defensive solidity, making goal-scoring potential a key focus for bettors and fans alike.

BT4Y best bet

Over 2.5 Goals

  • The average goals per game in their last four meetings is a high 3.5, indicating open matches.
  • Model projects a 58.1% chance for Over 2.5 Goals, above the market's implied 48.1%.
  • Data quality is limited for both teams, so tactical intent and competition stakes are important.
  • Both sides have incentives to attack in this knockout tie, increasing goal potential.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Over 2.5 Goals with a 58.1% probability, reflecting the historically high-scoring nature of recent head-to-head matches averaging 3.5 goals. Despite limited current season data for Pisa and Empoli, the knockout format encourages offensive play, supporting the expectation of multiple goals. The market price at 2.08 offers positive value given the model's edge, making this a compelling choice based on goal-scoring trends and match context. However, the thin data sample advises cautious staking.

Model Chance58.1%
Strong positive
Implied Market Chance48.1%
Positive
Head-to-Head Goals Average3.5 goals per game
Strong positive
Data QualityLimited for both teams
Neutral

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Expect an open and attacking game as Pisa and Empoli contest this Coppa Italia tie. The tactical context and recent meetings suggest a lively encounter with multiple goals, making Over 2.5 Goals a sensible pick. The data supports the likelihood of a high-scoring match, aligning with the knockout stakes where both teams will push forward.

Main risk

A slower tempo or weaker chance quality would make the goals market harder to justify at the current price.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Goal-scoring potential in Coppa Italia knockout

“The average of 3.5 goals in recent head-to-heads combined with the knockout nature of this fixture points to a match where both teams will prioritize attack, increasing the chances of Over 2.5 Goals.”

Key Data Signals

Over 2.5 Goals evidence

The average goals per game in their last four meetings is a high 3.5, indicating open matches.

Model projects a 58.1% chance for Over 2.5 Goals, above the market's implied 48.1%.

Data quality is limited for both teams, so tactical intent and competition stakes are important.

Both sides have incentives to attack in this knockout tie, increasing goal potential.

What To Watch In The Data

Over 2.5 Goals notes

  • The last four meetings between Pisa and Empoli have produced an average of 3.5 goals per game, demonstrating a clear trend towards high-scoring encounters.
  • This recent sample suggests a tempo and openness conducive to Over 2.5 Goals, with both teams historically contributing to a lively attacking contest in this fixture pairing.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Pisa-
Avg goals scored
Empoli-
Pisa-
Avg goals conceded
Empoli-
Pisa-
BTTS rate
Empoli-
Pisa-
Over 2.5 goals
Empoli-
Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · Model 58% vs implied 48% · edge +10 pts
2.08
Check odds @ 2.08
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Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 76%
1.33
Check odds @ 1.33
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 40%
3.75
Check odds @ 3.75
BTTS NoBetfred guide price · model 54%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
BTTS YesBetUK guide price · model 50%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 46%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Recent head-to-head meetings between Pisa and Empoli have averaged 3.5 goals per game, indicating a pattern of open, high-scoring matches. While current season BTTS and goal data are unavailable, the competition stakes and tactical incentives in a knockout tie typically encourage both teams to attack, increasing the probability of goals and BTTS outcomes.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · Model 58% vs implied 48% · edge +10 pts
2.08
Check odds @ 2.08
Load more odds for this section
Empoli Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 52%
2.68
Check odds @ 2.68
Empoli to WinBetfred guide price · model 38%
4.33
Check odds @ 4.33
BTTS YesBetUK guide price · model 50%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 30%
3.4
Check odds @ 3.4
Pisa Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 54%
1.45
Check odds @ 1.45
The Over 2.5 Goals market is priced at 2.08, reflecting an implied chance of 48.1%, which is notably lower than the model's 58.1% probability. This positive suggests the market underestimates the likelihood of multiple goals, making the bet attractive from a pricing perspective. The knockout format and historical scoring trends justify this optimism despite limited current season data.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Pisa

Last 50W 0D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 0D 0L

No recent match sample is available for Pisa yet.

Empoli

Last 50W 0D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 0D 0L

No recent match sample is available for Empoli yet.

Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBetMGM guide price · Model 67% vs implied 52% · edge +15 pts
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Load more odds for this section
Empoli Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 52%
2.68
Check odds @ 2.68
Empoli to WinBetfred guide price · model 38%
4.33
Check odds @ 4.33
Home / DrawBetfred guide price · model 73%
1.2
Check odds @ 1.2
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 30%
3.4
Check odds @ 3.4
Pisa Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 54%
1.45
Check odds @ 1.45
Pisa to WinBet365 guide price · model 43%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
Recent form data for Pisa and Empoli is limited, preventing a detailed analysis of current attacking or defensive trends. Nevertheless, the model's projection and historical scoring patterns suggest that both teams are capable of contributing to a match with multiple goals, especially given the knockout stakes that typically encourage offensive play.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

0Pisa wins
1Draws
3Empoli wins
20 Feb 2021Pisa v Empoli1-1
23 Oct 2020Empoli v Pisa3-1
16 Feb 2020Empoli v Pisa2-1
24 Sep 2019Pisa v Empoli2-3
Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · Model 58% vs implied 48% · edge +10 pts
2.08
Check odds @ 2.08
Load more odds for this section
Empoli to WinBetfred guide price · model 38%
4.33
Check odds @ 4.33
BTTS YesBetUK guide price · model 50%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 30%
3.4
Check odds @ 3.4
Pisa to WinBet365 guide price · model 43%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
The head-to-head sample of four matches shows a strong tendency for goals, averaging 3.5 per game. This supports the expectation of an open match with multiple scoring opportunities. While the sample size is modest, the consistent pattern of high goal totals in these encounters provides a meaningful backdrop for the Over 2.5 Goals pick.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

Open Match Centre player odds

Season team stats

Coppa Italia

Pisa0
Played
Empoli0
Pisa0
Avg goals for
Empoli0
Pisa0
Avg goals against
Empoli0
Pisa0
Clean sheets
Empoli0
Best odds for this sectionEmpoli Draw No BetBet365 guide price · Model 52% vs implied 37% · edge +14.2 pts
2.68
Check odds @ 2.68
Load more odds for this section
Empoli to WinBetfred guide price · model 38%
4.33
Check odds @ 4.33
Pisa Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 54%
1.45
Check odds @ 1.45
Pisa to WinBet365 guide price · model 43%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
Season-long statistics for Pisa and Empoli are not available, limiting insights into their typical goal-scoring and defensive records. This lack of data necessitates reliance on historical head-to-head trends and competition context, which indicate a propensity for matches with several goals, supporting the Over 2.5 Goals selection.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

-Pisa Over 2.5
-Empoli Over 2.5
3.5H2H avg goals
The last four meetings between Pisa and Empoli have produced an average of 3.5 goals per game, demonstrating a clear trend towards high-scoring encounters. This recent sample suggests a tempo and openness conducive to Over 2.5 Goals, with both teams historically contributing to a lively attacking contest in this fixture pairing.

Related football research

Fixture links

Prediction context

Pisa v Empoli prediction

Open the full betting preview for the editorial pick, odds context and final selection.

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Next step

Betting context

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