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Cremonese crestCremonese

Serie B | Sat 17 Oct, 18:30

Pisa v Cremonese Stats

Data last updated: Fri 16 Oct 2026, 09:52 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Cremonese face a critical Serie B clash at home against Pisa, with survival hopes hanging by a thread. Sitting just above the relegation zone, Cremonese are desperate for points to keep their faint chance alive, while Pisa arrive already relegated and on a six-match losing streak. The hosts have struggled to convert possession into goals but showed a spark recently with Federico Bonazzoli ending his scoring drought. Pisa's offensive woes on the road continue, failing to score in six consecutive away matches, setting the stage for a tense, low-scoring encounter where motivation and nerves will heavily influence the outcome.

BT4Y match pick · price watch

Cremonese to Win

  • Cremonese have won only once in their last 20 league games but are highly motivated to avoid relegation.
  • Pisa have failed to score in six consecutive away matches, highlighting their offensive struggles on the road.
  • Federico Bonazzoli’s recent goal could ignite Cremonese’s attack in this crucial fixture.
  • Both teams have defensive vulnerabilities, but Pisa’s relegation status reduces their competitive edge.
  • The match is expected to be cagey with a narrow home victory the most plausible outcome.
Price warning

Cremonese to Win is still the main football pick, but the current price is short: the market implies about 30% while the model sits nearer 23% (-7.3 pts). Keep staking reduced or wait for a better price unless final team news strengthens the selection. Better value alternative: Pisa Draw No Bet shows a +15 pts edge at 1.98.

Why This Pick Is Price-Sensitive

Football case vs market price

The model identifies Cremonese to Win as a football-led selection despite a negative at current . Cremonese’s urgent need for points and home advantage create a strong motivation gap against a Pisa side already relegated and struggling offensively. The is below the market implied probability, indicating a short price. Reduced staking or waiting for improvement is advised. Improvements in team news or line-ups could enhance value. Limited away scoring from Pisa and Cremonese’s possession control support the pick, but caution is warranted due to form and price sensitivity.

Motivation GapStrong positive due to Cremonese fighting relegation vs Pisa already relegated
Strong positive
Recent FormNegative with Cremonese only 1 win in 20 matches but Pisa on 6-match losing streak
Neutral
Home AdvantagePositive with Cremonese playing at home and crowd support
Positive
Price Sensitivity23% model chance vs 30.3% implied (-7.3 pts)
Negative

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Cremonese’s desperate need to avoid relegation combined with their home advantage makes them the likely winners despite recent poor form. Pisa’s offensive struggles away from home and lack of motivation further tilt the balance. This match will hinge on Cremonese’s ability to convert possession into goals under pressure and maintain defensive solidity.

Main risk

That gap is not impossible, but it is dangerous enough to turn every mistake into emotional chaos.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome and tactical context

“Cremonese’s fight for survival and home support create a compelling case for victory, but their recent form and psychological hurdles mean this will be a tense, low-scoring affair.”

Key Data Signals

Cremonese to Win evidence

Cremonese have won only once in their last 20 league games but are highly motivated to avoid relegation.

Pisa have failed to score in six consecutive away matches, highlighting their offensive struggles on the road.

Federico Bonazzoli’s recent goal could ignite Cremonese’s attack in this crucial fixture.

Both teams have defensive vulnerabilities, but Pisa’s relegation status reduces their competitive edge.

What To Watch In The Data

Cremonese to Win notes

  • Over the last ten meetings, the average goals per match is 2.4, indicating moderate scoring.
  • However, recent trends show low scoring with Pisa’s offensive drought and Cremonese’s cautious approach under pressure.
  • The tempo is expected to be slow with few clear chances, supporting a low-scoring, tight game scenario.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Pisa2.2
Avg goals scored
Cremonese1
Pisa1.4
Avg goals conceded
Cremonese1.2
Pisa60%
BTTS rate
Cremonese40%
Pisa100%
Over 2.5 goals
Cremonese60%
Best odds for this sectionOver 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 85% vs implied 75% · edge +9.9 pts
1.33
Check odds @ 1.33
Load more odds for this section
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 63%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Over 3.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 42%
3.75
Check odds @ 3.75
BTTS YesBetUK guide price · model 60%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
BTTS NoBetfred guide price · model 44%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 37%
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
Both teams have struggled offensively, with Cremonese averaging only 0.75 goals per game and Pisa failing to score in six consecutive away matches. This low scoring trend makes a BTTS No scenario plausible, as Pisa’s attack is blunt and Cremonese’s defensive focus intensifies under pressure to avoid relegation.

Continue the research

Useful next reads

full betting preview for Pisa v Cremonesecorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting angleslatest football statsmain football hubtoday's predictionsbest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickCremonese to WinBetfred guide price · Model 23% vs implied 30% · edge -7.3 pts
3.3
Check odds @ 3.3
Load more odds for this section
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 63%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 63%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
BTTS YesBetUK guide price · model 60%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Cremonese Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 42%
1.82
Check odds @ 1.82
The 23% for Cremonese to Win sits against roughly 30.3% implied by the current price (-7.3 pts). Pisa have the stronger recent points return, taking 10 points from the sample compared with 6 for Cremonese. Both teams have struggled significantly in front of goal, with Pisa particularly suffering during their away trips.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Pisa

WDLWW
Last 53W 1D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 1D 2L
10 Oct 2026A Vicenza Virtus3-0
20 Sep 2026A Mantova2-2
11 Sep 2026H Virtus Entella1-4
06 Sep 2026A Juve Stabia3-0
30 Aug 2026H Catanzaro2-1

Cremonese

DDDWL
Last 51W 3D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 3D 2L
10 Oct 2026A Arezzo0-0
19 Sep 2026H Virtus Entella0-0
12 Sep 2026A Cesena2-2
06 Sep 2026H Padova3-1
28 Aug 2026H Modena0-3
Market aligned with main pickCremonese to WinBetfred guide price · Model 23% vs implied 30% · edge -7.3 pts
3.3
Check odds @ 3.3
Load more odds for this section
Cremonese Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 42%
1.82
Check odds @ 1.82
Away / DrawBet365 guide price · model 45%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Cremonese’s recent form is poor with only one point from five matches, reflecting a deep psychological block. Pisa’s six-match losing streak and failure to score away highlight their collapse. The motivation gap is stark, with Cremonese fighting for survival and Pisa already relegated, shaping expectations for a tense and nervy encounter.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

100%Pisa Over 2.5
60%Cremonese Over 2.5
2.4H2H avg goals
Over the last ten meetings, the average goals per match is 2.4, indicating moderate scoring. However, recent trends show low scoring with Pisa’s offensive drought and Cremonese’s cautious approach under pressure. The tempo is expected to be slow with few clear chances, supporting a low-scoring, tight game scenario.

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