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Pianese crestPianese
v
Perugia crestPerugia

Serie C - Girone B | Sun 08 Nov, 16:30

Pianese v Perugia Stats

Data last updated: Sat 07 Nov 2026, 04:44 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Pianese and Perugia meet in Serie C - Girone B with both sides showing contrasting offensive outputs this season. Pianese has struggled to score, averaging just 0.6 goals per game, while Perugia is more potent with 2 goals per match. However, Pianese's strong defensive discipline, conceding only 0.4 goals on average, suggests a cautious encounter. Both teams have collected 7 points recently, indicating balanced form, but the tactical setup and stakes hint at a match where goal-scoring opportunities may be limited, making a low-scoring game plausible.

BT4Y match pick · price watch

Under 2.5 Goals

  • Price warning: current odds imply about 61%, above the 55% model chance, so this is a football-led pick rather than a clear value bet; reduce stake or wait for a better price.
  • Pianese averages only 0.6 goals per game this season.
  • Perugia scores 2 goals per match but concedes 1.4 on average.
  • Pianese concedes just 0.4 goals per game, showing defensive resilience.
  • Recent form shows both teams earning 7 points, indicating balanced momentum.
Price warning

Under 2.5 Goals is still the main football pick, but the current price is short: the market implies about 61% while the model sits nearer 55% (-6.1 pts). Keep staking reduced or wait for a better price unless final team news strengthens the selection. Better value alternative: Both Teams to Score shows a +10.9 pts edge at 1.91.

Why This Pick Is Price-Sensitive

Football case vs market price

The model estimates a 54.5% chance for Under 2.5 Goals, reflecting Pianese's strong defensive record and cautious recent form from both sides. Despite Perugia's higher scoring rate, Pianese's low concession rate and the tactical balance between the teams support a lower-scoring outcome. However, the current imply a 60.6% chance, making the price short and suggesting a reduced stake approach. Improvements such as clearer line-ups or drift would strengthen the value case.

Pianese defensive solidity0.4 goals conceded per game
Strong positive
Perugia attacking output2 goals per game
Neutral
Recent form balanceBoth teams with 7 points recently
Positive
Market price vs model chance54.5% model chance vs 60.6% implied (-6.1 pts)
Negative

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Expect a tactically cautious match with Pianese focusing on defensive organization to contain Perugia's more potent attack. The low scoring trend from Pianese combined with Perugia's moderate concession rate suggests Under 2.5 Goals is a reasonable selection. The balanced recent form and defensive discipline provide a solid foundation for this pick.

Main risk

A slower tempo or weaker chance quality would make the goals market harder to justify at the current price.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Under 2.5 Goals rationale

“This fixture pits a defensively disciplined Pianese against a more attacking Perugia, but the overall tactical caution and recent scoring trends point towards a low-scoring game.”

Key Data Signals

Under 2.5 Goals evidence

Pianese averages only 0.6 goals per game this season.

Perugia scores 2 goals per match but concedes 1.4 on average.

Pianese concedes just 0.4 goals per game, showing defensive resilience.

Recent form shows both teams earning 7 points, indicating balanced momentum.

What To Watch In The Data

Under 2.5 Goals notes

  • In the last four meetings, the average goals per game is 3, indicating some previous openness.
  • However, recent form and season stats suggest a shift towards tighter games.
  • The Over 2.5 Goals trend is stronger for Perugia but tempered by Pianese's defensive resilience, pointing to a match that could stay under 2.5 goals despite historical averages.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Pianese0.6
Avg goals scored
Perugia2
Pianese0.4
Avg goals conceded
Perugia1.4
Pianese40%
BTTS rate
Perugia80%
Pianese20%
Over 2.5 goals
Perugia60%
Market aligned with main pickUnder 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · Model 55% vs implied 61% · edge -6.1 pts
1.65
Check odds @ 1.65
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 63%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 50%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 68%
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 32%
4
Check odds @ 4
BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 41%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Pianese's low scoring and conceding rates contrast with Perugia's higher scoring but also higher conceding numbers. The BTTS rates are 40% for Pianese and 80% for Perugia, suggesting Perugia often scores but Pianese's defense may limit goals. This mix supports a likely under 2.5 goals outcome with some chance of a single team scoring.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetfred guide price · Model 63% vs implied 52% · edge +10.9 pts
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Load more odds for this section
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 50%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Perugia to WinBet365 guide price · model 47%
2.4
Check odds @ 2.4
Perugia Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 56%
1.78
Check odds @ 1.78
Pianese Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 47%
2.02
Check odds @ 2.02
Pianese to WinBetfred guide price · model 38%
2.7
Check odds @ 2.7
DrawBetfred guide price · model 28%
3.1
Check odds @ 3.1
The 54.5% for Under 2.5 Goals sits against roughly 60.6% implied by the current price (-6.1 pts). The Over 2.5 trend is 20% for Pianese and 60% for Perugia, so the goals angle is not just a price call.

Continue the research

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Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Pianese

DDDDW
Last 51W 4D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 6D 3L
01 Nov 2026A Latina1-1
25 Oct 2026A Forli0-0
17 Oct 2026H Pineto0-0
10 Oct 2026A Ostia Mare0-0
04 Oct 2026H Ravenna2-1

Perugia

DLWLW
Last 52W 1D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 104W 1D 5L
31 Oct 2026A Guidonia Montecelio 19371-1
23 Oct 2026H Pescara1-2
18 Oct 2026A Campobasso FC5-1
11 Oct 2026H Vado0-2
03 Oct 2026A Gubbio3-1
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBet365 guide price · Model 75% vs implied 74% · edge +1.3 pts
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
Load more odds for this section
Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 66%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Perugia to WinBet365 guide price · model 47%
2.4
Check odds @ 2.4
Perugia Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 56%
1.78
Check odds @ 1.78
Pianese Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 47%
2.02
Check odds @ 2.02
Pianese to WinBetfred guide price · model 38%
2.7
Check odds @ 2.7
DrawBetfred guide price · model 28%
3.1
Check odds @ 3.1
Both teams have earned 7 points recently, indicating stable form. Pianese's recent matches have been low-scoring affairs, reinforcing their defensive approach. Perugia's form shows more attacking intent but also some defensive vulnerabilities, suggesting a balanced contest with limited goal-scoring bursts.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

20%Pianese Over 2.5
60%Perugia Over 2.5
3H2H avg goals
In the last four meetings, the average goals per game is 3, indicating some previous openness. However, recent form and season stats suggest a shift towards tighter games. The Over 2.5 Goals trend is stronger for Perugia but tempered by Pianese's defensive resilience, pointing to a match that could stay under 2.5 goals despite historical averages.

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