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Philadelphia Union crestPhiladelphia Union
v
Inter Miami crestInter Miami

Major League Soccer | Thu 20 Aug, 00:30

Philadelphia Union v Inter Miami Stats

Data last updated: Wed 19 Aug 2026, 07:30 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Philadelphia Union host Inter Miami at Subaru Park amid contrasting recent fortunes. Philadelphia have won four consecutive MLS matches, including three straight home victories where they scored seven goals and conceded three. Inter Miami arrive on a three-match losing streak, having conceded nine goals in that span, highlighting defensive vulnerabilities despite a potent attack led by Lionel Messi. The fixture promises an open contest with both teams likely to score, as recent meetings have averaged over five goals per game. Philadelphia's home momentum and resilience after conceding first set the stage for a competitive match with goals at both ends.

BT4Y best bet

Philadelphia Union to Win & Both Teams to Score

  • Philadelphia Union have won four straight MLS matches, scoring seven goals in last three home games.
  • Inter Miami have conceded nine goals in their last three defeats across all competitions.
  • Both teams have scored in all of the last six meetings, with an average of 5.17 goals per game.
  • Lionel Messi leads Miami with 12 goals and 8 assists, sustaining their attacking threat.
  • Philadelphia's home form contrasts with Miami's defensive struggles, supporting a win with both teams scoring.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model rates Philadelphia Union to Win & Both Teams to Score with a 38.9% chance, above the market's 27% implied probability, indicating strong value. Philadelphia's recent four-match winning streak and home scoring form align with Miami's defensive frailties, which have led to multiple goals conceded in recent matches. Both teams have consistently scored in their head-to-head clashes, averaging over five goals per game. This combination of attacking potency and defensive lapses supports the expectation of a Philadelphia win with goals at both ends. No data limitations affect this assessment.

Model Chance38.9%
Strong positive
Market Implied Chance27%
Strong positive
Philadelphia Home Form4 wins in last 4, 7 goals scored in last 3 home games
Strong positive
Inter Miami Defensive Record9 goals conceded in last 3 matches
Strong positive
Head-to-Head Goals5.17 average goals in last 6 meetings, BTTS in all
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Philadelphia Union's recent home form and resilience after conceding first provide a tactical edge against an Inter Miami side struggling defensively. The data shows Miami's defensive lapses and Philadelphia's scoring consistency create a strong case for a home win with goals at both ends, making this a well-founded selection.

Main risk

Late team news, price movement and market liquidity are the main cautions before kick-off.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome and goals

“Philadelphia's attacking momentum at Subaru Park combined with Miami's defensive struggles sets up a high-probability scenario for a home win with both teams scoring. The match dynamics and recent data strongly support this outcome.”

Key Data Signals

Philadelphia Union to Win & Both Teams to Score evidence

Philadelphia Union have won four straight MLS matches, scoring seven goals in last three home games.

Inter Miami have conceded nine goals in their last three defeats across all competitions.

Both teams have scored in all of the last six meetings, with an average of 5.17 goals per game.

Lionel Messi leads Miami with 12 goals and 8 assists, sustaining their attacking threat.

What To Watch In The Data

Philadelphia Union to Win & Both Teams to Score notes

  • The last six head-to-head matches have averaged 5.17 goals, with both teams scoring in every game, indicating a strong trend for open, high-scoring encounters.
  • Both teams have an 80% over 2.5 goals rate in recent matches, reinforcing the likelihood of multiple goals and a fast tempo.
  • This trend aligns with the tactical openness and defensive vulnerabilities evident in recent form.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Philadelphia Union6.4
Avg corners for
Inter Miami5.5
Philadelphia Union10.6
Avg total corners
Inter Miami10.75
Philadelphia Union2
Avg yellow cards
Inter Miami3
Philadelphia Union21.4
Avg shots
Inter Miami16.75
Best odds for this sectionOver 9.5 CornersBet365 guide price · Model 65% vs implied 53% · edge +12.5 pts
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
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Over 4.5 CardsBetfred guide price · model 64%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Philadelphia Union average 6.4 corners per game and 21.4 shots with 7.2 on target, indicating sustained attacking pressure at home. Inter Miami averages 5.5 corners and 16.75 shots with 5.75 on target, showing offensive intent despite defensive issues. Card averages suggest a moderately physical contest, with Miami averaging 3 yellows per game versus Philadelphia's 2, reflecting potential tactical fouling and pressure moments.

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Useful next reads

Major League Soccer fixtures and predictionsfull betting preview for Philadelphia Union v Inter Miamicorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting anglesstats dashboardfootball analysis hubprediction centrebest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Philadelphia Union2.8
Avg goals scored
Inter Miami2.6
Philadelphia Union2.2
Avg goals conceded
Inter Miami2.4
Philadelphia Union80%
BTTS rate
Inter Miami80%
Philadelphia Union80%
Over 2.5 goals
Inter Miami80%
Best odds for this sectionOver 1.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · Model 88% vs implied 90% · edge -2.1 pts
1.11
Check odds @ 1.11
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Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 74%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
BTTS YesBetUK guide price · model 76%
1.33
Check odds @ 1.33
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 56%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 28%
3.25
Check odds @ 3.25
Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 30%
2.88
Check odds @ 2.88
Both teams have scored in every one of their last six meetings, with an average of 5.17 goals per game, highlighting the fixture's open nature. Philadelphia's recent home matches have seen consistent scoring on both sides, while Miami's defensive vulnerabilities have led to multiple goals conceded. The attacking threat from Lionel Messi and Philadelphia's ability to score after conceding support a high likelihood of goals at both ends.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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Open Match Centre player odds

Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickPhiladelphia Union Draw No BetBetUK guide price · Model 63% vs implied 50% · edge +13.2 pts
2
Check odds @ 2
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Philadelphia Union to WinBetMGM guide price · model 54%
2.45
Check odds @ 2.45
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 74%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
BTTS YesBetUK guide price · model 76%
1.33
Check odds @ 1.33
The current of 3.7 for Philadelphia Union to Win & Both Teams to Score reflect a market implied chance of 27%, which is notably below the model's 38.9% probability. This indicates a positive of nearly 12%, suggesting the price offers good value based on recent form and tactical context. The price is stable and represents a strong betting opportunity without requiring caution for overpricing.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Philadelphia Union

WWWWL
Last 54W 0D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 104W 2D 4L
16 Aug 2026A New York City FC3-2
02 Aug 2026H Atlanta United FC3-2
26 Jul 2026H Seattle Sounders1-0
23 Jul 2026H New York Red Bulls3-1
25 May 2026A Inter Miami4-6

Inter Miami

LDWWW
Last 53W 1D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 106W 2D 2L
16 Aug 2026A Nashville SC1-4
02 Aug 2026H Columbus Crew2-2
26 Jul 2026A CF Montreal1-0
23 Jul 2026H Chicago Fire3-2
25 May 2026H Philadelphia Union6-4
Market aligned with main pickHome / DrawBet365 guide price · Model 81% vs implied 67% · edge +13.8 pts
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
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Philadelphia Union Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 63%
2
Check odds @ 2
Philadelphia Union to WinBetMGM guide price · model 54%
2.45
Check odds @ 2.45
Philadelphia Union have accumulated 12 points in their last five matches, winning four and scoring 2.8 goals per game while conceding 2.2. Inter Miami have earned 10 points in the same span but have conceded 2.4 goals per game, reflecting defensive fragility. Both teams have an 80% rate of matches going over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring, underscoring the likelihood of an open, high-scoring game.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

2Philadelphia Union wins
2Draws
6Inter Miami wins
25 May 2026Inter Miami v Philadelphia Union6-4
25 May 2025Philadelphia Union v Inter Miami3-3
29 Mar 2025Inter Miami v Philadelphia Union2-1
15 Sep 2024Inter Miami v Philadelphia Union3-1
16 Jun 2024Philadelphia Union v Inter Miami1-2
16 Aug 2023Philadelphia Union v Inter Miami1-4
Market aligned with main pickPhiladelphia Union to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 54% vs implied 41% · edge +13.1 pts
2.45
Check odds @ 2.45
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Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 74%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
BTTS YesBetUK guide price · model 76%
1.33
Check odds @ 1.33
Inter Miami remain unbeaten in the last six meetings with Philadelphia, including three away matches at Subaru Park. However, all these encounters have been high-scoring affairs with both teams finding the net, averaging over five goals per game. While Miami's unbeaten record is notable, Philadelphia's current form and home momentum provide a counterbalance, making the head-to-head a nuanced factor rather than a decisive edge.
Season team stats

Major League Soccer

Philadelphia Union19
Played
Inter Miami19
Philadelphia Union1.5
Avg goals for
Inter Miami2.4
Philadelphia Union1.8
Avg goals against
Inter Miami1.9
Philadelphia Union3
Clean sheets
Inter Miami4
Market aligned with main pickPhiladelphia Union Draw No BetBetUK guide price · Model 63% vs implied 50% · edge +13.2 pts
2
Check odds @ 2
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Philadelphia Union to WinBetMGM guide price · model 54%
2.45
Check odds @ 2.45
Philadelphia Union's season stats show strong home scoring ability with 7 goals in their last 3 home wins, while conceding 3, indicating a balanced but attack-oriented approach. Inter Miami's defensive record is less stable, conceding multiple goals in recent matches and away fixtures. Both teams maintain high BTTS and over 2.5 goals rates, supporting the expectation of goals from both sides and a Philadelphia win.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
2Inter Miami3819115310
13Philadelphia Union19195410-7
Philadelphia Union sit 13th with 19 points, chasing playoff qualification, which fuels their recent winning streak and home motivation. Inter Miami are 2nd with 38 points but arrive on a poor defensive run, adding pressure to maintain form. The standings reflect differing stakes and momentum, with Philadelphia eager to capitalize at home and Miami under pressure to arrest their slide.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

80%Philadelphia Union Over 2.5
80%Inter Miami Over 2.5
4.1H2H avg goals
The last six head-to-head matches have averaged 5.17 goals, with both teams scoring in every game, indicating a strong trend for open, high-scoring encounters. Both teams have an 80% over 2.5 goals rate in recent matches, reinforcing the likelihood of multiple goals and a fast tempo. This trend aligns with the tactical openness and defensive vulnerabilities evident in recent form.

Related football research

Fixture links

Prediction context

Philadelphia Union v Inter Miami prediction

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