Football Stats Hub

Peterhead crestPeterhead
v
Alloa Athletic crestAlloa Athletic

League One | Sat 31 Oct, 15:00

Peterhead v Alloa Athletic Stats

Data last updated: Fri 30 Oct 2026, 08:10 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Peterhead and Alloa Athletic meet in a League One clash where both teams have shown tendencies toward open games recently. Peterhead has conceded 1.6 goals per match and scored 0.8, while Alloa Athletic averages 1 goal scored and 2 conceded per game. Both sides have contributed to a high rate of matches exceeding 2.5 goals, especially Alloa Athletic with an 80% over 2.5 rate. The fixture promises attacking intent and defensive vulnerabilities, setting the stage for a potentially goal-rich encounter at this mid-table battle.

BT4Y best bet

Over 2.5 Goals

  • Peterhead concedes 1.6 goals per game, indicating defensive frailty.
  • Alloa Athletic has an 80% rate of matches going over 2.5 goals.
  • Recent form shows both teams involved in high-scoring games.
  • Head-to-head average goals stand at 2.7 over the last 10 meetings.
  • Model estimates a 63.3% chance for over 2.5 goals, above market .

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model identifies a 63.3% probability for over 2.5 goals, supported by both teams' recent attacking and defensive records. Alloa Athletic's high over 2.5 rate of 80% and Peterhead's defensive concessions contribute to an expectation of multiple goals. The implied chance from is lower at 55.6%, indicating positive value. This match's open style and historical goal averages reinforce the likelihood of a goal-heavy game. No data limitations affect in this pick.

Model Probability63.3% model chance vs 55.6% implied (+7.7 pts)
Strong positive
Alloa Athletic Over 2.5 Rate80% matches over 2.5 goals
Strong positive
Peterhead Defensive Record1.6 goals conceded per game
Positive
Head-to-Head Goals2.7 average goals in last 10 matches
Positive
Market Implied Chance63.3% model chance vs 55.6% implied (+7.7 pts)
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Expect an open contest with both sides vulnerable defensively and eager to attack. The high average goals in recent meetings and Alloa Athletic's strong over 2.5 record suggest this match will produce multiple goals. Peterhead's defensive struggles further increase the chances of a goal-rich game, making over 2.5 goals a compelling selection.

Main risk

A slower tempo or weaker chance quality would make the goals market harder to justify at the current price.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Goal-scoring potential and defensive vulnerabilities

“This fixture features two teams with leaky defenses and decent attacking output, which historically leads to matches with multiple goals. The statistical trends and recent form strongly point towards an open game where over 2.5 goals is a sensible expectation.”

Key Data Signals

Over 2.5 Goals evidence

Peterhead concedes 1.6 goals per game, indicating defensive frailty.

Alloa Athletic has an 80% rate of matches going over 2.5 goals.

Recent form shows both teams involved in high-scoring games.

Head-to-head average goals stand at 2.7 over the last 10 meetings.

What To Watch In The Data

Over 2.5 Goals notes

  • Over the last 10 head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 2.7, indicating a consistent trend toward matches exceeding 2.5 goals.
  • This sample reflects a tempo and style that favors goal-scoring opportunities, with both teams historically involved in open games featuring multiple goals.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Peterhead0.8
Avg goals scored
Alloa Athletic1
Peterhead1.6
Avg goals conceded
Alloa Athletic2
Peterhead40%
BTTS rate
Alloa Athletic40%
Peterhead60%
Over 2.5 goals
Alloa Athletic80%
Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · Model 63% vs implied 56% · edge +7.7 pts
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Load more odds for this section
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 81%
1.25
Check odds @ 1.25
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 45%
2.75
Check odds @ 2.75
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 60%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
BTTS NoBetUK guide price · model 44%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 41%
2
Check odds @ 2
Both teams have shown a propensity for matches with multiple goals, with Alloa Athletic's 80% over 2.5 rate and Peterhead's 60% rate reinforcing this trend. The head-to-head average of 2.7 goals per game further supports the expectation of goals from both sides, suggesting an open game with chances at both ends.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · Model 63% vs implied 56% · edge +7.7 pts
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 60%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Alloa Athletic Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 51%
2.08
Check odds @ 2.08
Alloa Athletic to WinBet365 guide price · model 41%
2.75
Check odds @ 2.75
Peterhead Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 54%
1.72
Check odds @ 1.72
Peterhead to WinBet365 guide price · model 44%
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
DrawBet365 guide price · model 30%
3.3
Check odds @ 3.3
The 63.3% for Over 2.5 Goals sits against roughly 55.6% implied by the current price (+7.7 pts). The Over 2.5 trend is 60% for Peterhead and 80% for Alloa Athletic, so the goals angle is not just a price call.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Peterhead

LWLLL
Last 51W 0D 4L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 1D 7L
24 Oct 2026A Montrose0-3
17 Oct 2026H Cove Rangers2-0
10 Oct 2026H Queen of the South0-1
03 Oct 2026A Hamilton Academical1-2
19 Sep 2026H Airdrie United1-2

Alloa Athletic

LWLLL
Last 51W 0D 4L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 2D 5L
24 Oct 2026H Queen of the South0-1
17 Oct 2026A East Fife3-0
10 Oct 2026H Hamilton Academical0-3
03 Oct 2026A Ross County1-4
19 Sep 2026H East Kilbride1-2
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBetMGM guide price · Model 70% vs implied 65% · edge +4.9 pts
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
Load more odds for this section
Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 73%
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
Alloa Athletic Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 51%
2.08
Check odds @ 2.08
Alloa Athletic to WinBet365 guide price · model 41%
2.75
Check odds @ 2.75
Peterhead Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 54%
1.72
Check odds @ 1.72
Peterhead to WinBet365 guide price · model 44%
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
DrawBet365 guide price · model 30%
3.3
Check odds @ 3.3
Recent form data shows both Peterhead and Alloa Athletic involved in matches with frequent goals, with Peterhead scoring 0.8 and conceding 1.6 per game, and Alloa Athletic scoring 1 and conceding 2. Their over 2.5 rates of 60% and 80% respectively indicate a trend toward high-scoring encounters in current matches.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

60%Peterhead Over 2.5
80%Alloa Athletic Over 2.5
2.7H2H avg goals
Over the last 10 head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 2.7, indicating a consistent trend toward matches exceeding 2.5 goals. This sample reflects a tempo and style that favors goal-scoring opportunities, with both teams historically involved in open games featuring multiple goals.

Loading deeper match data…