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Partick crestPartick
v
ST Mirren crestST Mirren

Premiership | Thu 21 May, 20:00

Partick v ST Mirren Stats

Data last updated: Tue 30 Jun 2026, 19:26 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Partick face ST Mirren in Premiership on Thu 21 May, 20:00. Partick Thistle are unbeaten in 12 consecutive matches across all competitions. With Partick Thistle unbeaten in 12 straight fixtures, breaking their disciplined defensive shape remains a massive obstacle.

BT4Y match pick · price watch

Either a home win, an away win, or a draw

  • At 4/6, Partick Win implies roughly 60%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 52%.
  • One team will walk away with a place in next season’s Premiership.
  • Partick have the cleaner defensive sample at 1 conceded per match, which helps the Partick Win angle more than a raw possession edge.
Price warning

Either a home win, an away win, or a draw is still the main football pick, but the current price is short: the market implies about 60% while the model sits nearer 52% (-8.2 pts). Keep staking reduced or wait for a better price unless final team news strengthens the selection. Better value alternative: Both Teams to Score shows a +20.9 pts edge at 1.91.

Why This Pick Is Price-Sensitive

Football case vs market price

The 52% for Partick Win sits against roughly 60% implied by the current price. Partick have the cleaner defensive sample at 1 conceded per match, which helps the Partick Win angle more than a raw possession edge. One team will walk away with a place in next season’s Premiership.

Model chance vs price52% model chance against roughly 60% implied
Negative
Partick have the cleaner defensive sample at 1 conceded per.Visible data support
Positive
One team will walk away with a place in.Article support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Partick Win is the preferred angle because one team will walk away with a place in next season’s Premiership. Partick have the cleaner defensive sample at 1 conceded per match, which helps the Partick Win angle more than a raw possession edge. Craig McLeish now faces the difficult task of balancing caution with urgency.

Main risk

Craig McLeish now faces the difficult task of balancing caution with urgency.

Key Data Signals

Partick Win evidence

One team will walk away with a place in next season’s Premiership.

Partick have the cleaner defensive sample at 1 conceded per match, which helps the Partick Win angle more than a raw possession edge.

What To Watch In The Data

Partick Win notes

    Goals, BTTS and over/under

    Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

    Partick1.5
    Avg goals scored
    ST Mirren0.6
    Partick1
    Avg goals conceded
    ST Mirren1.4
    Partick100%
    BTTS rate
    ST Mirren20%
    Partick50%
    Over 2.5 goals
    ST Mirren20%
    Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 73% vs implied 52% · edge +20.9 pts
    1.91
    Check odds @ 1.91
    Load more odds for this section
    Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 61%
    1.67
    Check odds @ 1.67
    Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 43%
    2.15
    Check odds @ 2.15
    Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 61%
    1.36
    Check odds @ 1.36
    Over 3.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 25%
    3.75
    Check odds @ 3.75
    BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 31%
    1.91
    Check odds @ 1.91
    Market odds

    Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

    Market aligned with main pickPartick to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 52% vs implied 39% · edge +13.3 pts
    2.6
    Check odds @ 2.6
    Load more odds for this section
    BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 73%
    1.91
    Check odds @ 1.91
    Partick Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 61%
    1.8
    Check odds @ 1.8
    Over 3.5 CardsBetMGM guide price · model 61%
    1.67
    Check odds @ 1.67
    Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 43%
    2.15
    Check odds @ 2.15
    Partick to Win is positive value at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
    Corners, cards and shots

    Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

    Partick-
    Avg corners for
    ST Mirren5.2
    Partick-
    Avg total corners
    ST Mirren10
    Partick-
    Avg yellow cards
    ST Mirren1.8
    Partick-
    Avg shots
    ST Mirren13.2
    Best odds for this sectionOver 9.5 CornersBetfred guide price · Model 59% vs implied 50% · edge +9 pts
    2
    Check odds @ 2
    Load more odds for this section
    Over 3.5 CardsBetMGM guide price · model 61%
    1.67
    Check odds @ 1.67
    Over 9.5 Corners needs a clear match pattern behind it. For corners, that means territory, wide deliveries and blocked shots; for cards, it means duels and transition fouls; for shots, it means repeat box entries rather than harmless possession.
    Recent form

    Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

    Partick

    WD
    Last 51W 1D 0L
    Last 5 record
    Last 101W 1D 0L
    15 May 2026H Dunfermline2-1
    12 May 2026A Dunfermline1-1

    ST Mirren

    DWLLL
    Last 51W 1D 3L
    Last 5 record
    Last 103W 1D 6L
    17 May 2026H Dundee Utd1-1
    12 May 2026A Aberdeen2-0
    09 May 2026H Kilmarnock0-3
    02 May 2026A Dundee0-1
    25 Apr 2026H Livingston0-2
    Market aligned with main pickPartick to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 52% vs implied 39% · edge +13.3 pts
    2.6
    Check odds @ 2.6
    Load more odds for this section
    Home / DrawBetfred guide price · model 79%
    1.3
    Check odds @ 1.3
    Partick Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 61%
    1.8
    Check odds @ 1.8
    Head-to-head

    Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

    3Partick wins
    2Draws
    5ST Mirren wins
    08 Mar 2026ST Mirren v Partick2-1
    25 Jul 2021ST Mirren v Partick2-0
    07 Oct 2020ST Mirren v Partick4-1
    22 Jul 2017Partick v ST Mirren5-0
    02 May 2015Partick v ST Mirren3-0
    30 Jan 2015Partick v ST Mirren0-1
    Market aligned with main pickPartick to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 52% vs implied 39% · edge +13.3 pts
    2.6
    Check odds @ 2.6
    Load more odds for this section
    BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 73%
    1.91
    Check odds @ 1.91
    Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 43%
    2.15
    Check odds @ 2.15
    The head-to-head sample gives context for Partick to Win, but it should not overrule the current tactical picture. If previous meetings show goals or momentum swings, they support the market only when the present form and line-ups point to the same game state.
    Player stats

    Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

    Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

    Open Match Centre player odds

    Season team stats

    Premiership

    Partick4
    Played
    ST Mirren40
    Partick1
    Avg goals for
    ST Mirren0.8
    Partick1
    Avg goals against
    ST Mirren1.4
    Partick0
    Clean sheets
    ST Mirren10
    Market aligned with main pickPartick to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 52% vs implied 39% · edge +13.3 pts
    2.6
    Check odds @ 2.6
    Load more odds for this section
    Partick Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 61%
    1.8
    Check odds @ 1.8
    Season data supports Partick to Win when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.
    League standings snapshot

    Current table context.

    PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
    10ST Mirren30337917-21
    5ST Mirren343881020-25
    Key match trends

    Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

    50%Partick Over 2.5
    20%ST Mirren Over 2.5
    2.5H2H avg goals
    The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Partick sit at 50% and ST Mirren sit at 20% with the H2H average at 2.5 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

    Related football research

    Fixture links

    Prediction context

    Partick v ST Mirren prediction

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    Betting context

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