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Partick crestPartick
v
Dunfermline crestDunfermline

Premiership | Fri 15 May, 19:45

Partick v Dunfermline Stats

Data last updated: Thu 04 Jun 2026, 11:40 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Partick face Dunfermline in Premiership on Fri 15 May, 19:45. Firhill Stadium hosts a Premiership relegation phase clash loaded with anxiety as Partick Thistle and Dunfermline meet again with everything hanging in the balance after the first leg ended 1-1.

BT4Y lean · price warning

Partick Thistle to Win Partick Thistle enter this decisive second leg with a historical and situational advantage that is difficult to overlook

  • At 8/11, Partick Win implies roughly 58%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 27%.
  • Partick Thistle boast a formidable record at Firhill, suffering only one home defeat in normal time all season.
  • Dunfermline have the stronger recent points return, taking 5 points from the sample compared with 1 for Partick.
  • Dunfermline have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.33 conceded per match, which helps the Partick Win angle more than a raw possession edge.
Price warning

Partick Thistle to Win Partick Thistle enter this decisive second leg with a historical and situational advantage that is difficult to overlook is still the main football pick, but the current price is short: the market implies about 58% while the model sits nearer 27% (-30.9 pts). Keep staking reduced or wait for a better price unless final team news strengthens the selection. Better value alternative: Dunfermline Draw No Bet shows a +30.9 pts edge at 2.75.

Why This Pick Is Price-Sensitive

Football case vs market price

The 27% for Partick Win sits against roughly 58% implied by the current price. Dunfermline have the stronger recent points return, taking 5 points from the sample compared with 1 for Partick. Partick Thistle boast a formidable record at Firhill, suffering only one home defeat in normal time all season.

Model chance vs price27% model chance against roughly 58% implied
Negative
Dunfermline have the stronger recent points return, taking 5 points.Visible data support
Positive
Dunfermline have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.33 conceded per.Visible data support
Positive
Partick Thistle boast a formidable record at Firhill, suffering.Article support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Partick Win is the preferred angle because partick Thistle boast a formidable record at Firhill, suffering only one home defeat in normal time all season. Dunfermline have the stronger recent points return, taking 5 points from the sample compared with 1 for Partick. He remains the focal point of the attack and still carries the reputation of someone capable of producing a decisive moment, but recent output has not matched the expectation.

Main risk

He remains the focal point of the attack and still carries the reputation of someone capable of producing a decisive moment, but recent output has not matched the expectation.

Key Data Signals

Partick Win evidence

Partick Thistle boast a formidable record at Firhill, suffering only one home defeat in normal time all season.

Dunfermline have the stronger recent points return, taking 5 points from the sample compared with 1 for Partick.

Dunfermline have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.33 conceded per match, which helps the Partick Win angle more than a raw possession edge.

What To Watch In The Data

Partick Win notes

    Goals, BTTS and over/under

    Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

    Partick1
    Avg goals scored
    Dunfermline0.67
    Partick1
    Avg goals conceded
    Dunfermline0.33
    Partick100%
    BTTS rate
    Dunfermline33%
    Partick0%
    Over 2.5 goals
    Dunfermline0%
    Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 72% vs implied 52% · edge +19.8 pts
    1.91
    Check odds @ 1.91
    Load more odds for this section
    Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 66%
    1.8
    Check odds @ 1.8
    Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 22%
    3.5
    Check odds @ 3.5
    Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 34%
    2
    Check odds @ 2
    Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 52%
    1.3
    Check odds @ 1.3
    BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 32%
    1.91
    Check odds @ 1.91
    Recent form

    Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

    Partick

    D
    Last 50W 1D 0L
    Last 5 record
    Last 100W 1D 0L
    12 May 2026A Dunfermline1-1

    Dunfermline

    DDW
    Last 51W 2D 0L
    Last 5 record
    Last 101W 2D 0L
    12 May 2026H Partick1-1
    08 May 2026A Arbroath0-0
    05 May 2026H Arbroath1-0
    Market aligned with main pickPartick to WinBetfred guide price · Model 27% vs implied 54% · edge -27.1 pts
    1.85
    Check odds @ 1.85
    Load more odds for this section
    Partick Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 45%
    1.42
    Check odds @ 1.42
    Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 52%
    1.17
    Check odds @ 1.17
    League standings snapshot

    Current table context.

    PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
    Market odds

    Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

    Market aligned with main pickPartick to WinBetfred guide price · Model 27% vs implied 54% · edge -27.1 pts
    1.85
    Check odds @ 1.85
    Load more odds for this section
    BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 72%
    1.91
    Check odds @ 1.91
    Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 34%
    2
    Check odds @ 2
    Partick Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 45%
    1.42
    Check odds @ 1.42
    Partick to Win is price-sensitive at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
    Corners, cards and shots

    Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

    Partick-
    Avg corners for
    Dunfermline6
    Partick-
    Avg total corners
    Dunfermline9
    Partick-
    Avg yellow cards
    Dunfermline2.5
    Partick-
    Avg shots
    Dunfermline0
    Best odds for this sectionOver 10.5 CornersBet365 guide price · Highlighted because this is the strongest available price in this section.
    2
    Check odds @ 2
    Over 10.5 Corners needs a clear match pattern behind it. For corners, that means territory, wide deliveries and blocked shots; for cards, it means duels and transition fouls; for shots, it means repeat box entries rather than harmless possession.
    Head-to-head

    Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

    5Partick wins
    4Draws
    1Dunfermline wins
    12 May 2026Dunfermline v Partick1-1
    11 Apr 2026Partick v Dunfermline2-0
    24 Feb 2026Dunfermline v Partick2-2
    25 Nov 2025Partick v Dunfermline1-0
    27 Sep 2025Dunfermline v Partick0-2
    19 Apr 2025Dunfermline v Partick0-0
    Market aligned with main pickPartick to WinBetfred guide price · Model 27% vs implied 54% · edge -27.1 pts
    1.85
    Check odds @ 1.85
    Load more odds for this section
    BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 72%
    1.91
    Check odds @ 1.91
    Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 34%
    2
    Check odds @ 2
    The head-to-head sample gives context for Partick to Win, but it should not overrule the current tactical picture. If previous meetings show goals or momentum swings, they support the market only when the present form and line-ups point to the same game state.
    Season team stats

    Premiership

    Partick4
    Played
    Dunfermline4
    Partick1
    Avg goals for
    Dunfermline0.8
    Partick1
    Avg goals against
    Dunfermline0.8
    Partick0
    Clean sheets
    Dunfermline2
    Market aligned with main pickPartick to WinBetfred guide price · Model 27% vs implied 54% · edge -27.1 pts
    1.85
    Check odds @ 1.85
    Load more odds for this section
    Partick Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 45%
    1.42
    Check odds @ 1.42
    Season data supports Partick to Win when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.
    Player stats

    Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

    Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

    Open Match Centre player odds

    Key match trends

    Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

    0%Partick Over 2.5
    0%Dunfermline Over 2.5
    2H2H avg goals
    The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Partick sit at 0% and Dunfermline sit at 0% with the H2H average at 2 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

    Related football research

    Fixture links

    Prediction context

    Partick v Dunfermline prediction

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