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Parma crestParma
v
Sassuolo crestSassuolo

Serie A | Sun 24 May, 14:00

Parma v Sassuolo Stats

Data last updated: Wed 10 Jun 2026, 07:36 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Parma face Sassuolo in Serie A on Sun 24 May, 14:00. Players relax, shape disappears, emotions spill over and suddenly a sleepy final-day fixture becomes chaotic theatre.

BT4Y best bet

Ly than Parma, averaging 1

  • At 5/1, Parma Win implies roughly 17%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 34%.
  • With eight of their last 10 fixtures featuring fewer than three goals, their structural setup minimises spaces centrally and directly matches Sassuolo's historical instability.
  • Sassuolo have the stronger recent points return, taking 7 points from the sample compared with 6 for Parma.
  • Parma have the cleaner defensive sample at 1.2 conceded per match, which helps the Parma Win angle more than a raw possession edge.
  • Parma sit 13 in the table, while Sassuolo sit 11, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 34% for Parma Win sits against roughly 17% implied by the current price. Sassuolo have the stronger recent points return, taking 7 points from the sample compared with 6 for Parma. With eight of their last 10 fixtures featuring fewer than three goals, their structural setup minimises spaces centrally and directly matches Sassuolo's historical instability.

Model chance vs price34% model chance against roughly 17% implied
Strong positive
Sassuolo have the stronger recent points return, taking 7 points.Visible data support
Positive
Parma have the cleaner defensive sample at 1.2 conceded per.Visible data support
Positive
With eight of their last 10 fixtures featuring fewer.Article support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Parma Win is the preferred angle because with eight of their last 10 fixtures featuring fewer than three goals, their structural setup minimises spaces centrally and directly matches Sassuolo's historical instability away from home. Sassuolo have the stronger recent points return, taking 7 points from the sample compared with 6 for Parma. While this brings elevated risk and lower probability due to unexpected late transitions or game-state adjustments, it delivers significant pricing depth for targeted outcomes.

Main risk

While this brings elevated risk and lower probability due to unexpected late transitions or game-state adjustments, it delivers significant pricing depth for targeted outcomes.

Key Data Signals

Parma Win evidence

With eight of their last 10 fixtures featuring fewer than three goals, their structural setup minimises spaces centrally.

Sassuolo have the stronger recent points return, taking 7 points from the sample compared with 6 for Parma.

Parma have the cleaner defensive sample at 1.2 conceded per match, which helps the Parma Win angle more than a raw possession edge.

Parma sit 13 in the table, while Sassuolo sit 11, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

What To Watch In The Data

Parma Win notes

    Corners, cards and shots

    Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

    Parma4
    Avg corners for
    Sassuolo3.6
    Parma12.6
    Avg total corners
    Sassuolo10.2
    Parma1
    Avg yellow cards
    Sassuolo2.2
    Parma8.4
    Avg shots
    Sassuolo12.6
    Best odds for this sectionOver 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · Model 75% vs implied 60% · edge +15.1 pts
    1.67
    Check odds @ 1.67
    Load more odds for this section
    Over 3.5 CardsBetMGM guide price · model 59%
    2
    Check odds @ 2
    Over 8.5 Corners needs a clear match pattern behind it. For corners, that means territory, wide deliveries and blocked shots; for cards, it means duels and transition fouls; for shots, it means repeat box entries rather than harmless possession.

    Continue the research

    Useful next reads

    more Serie A analysisParma v Sassuolo predictioncorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting anglesstats dashboardfootball analysis hubprediction centrebest bets researchacca fixture filtering
    Goals, BTTS and over/under

    Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

    Parma0.8
    Avg goals scored
    Sassuolo1.4
    Parma1.2
    Avg goals conceded
    Sassuolo1.2
    Parma20%
    BTTS rate
    Sassuolo60%
    Parma20%
    Over 2.5 goals
    Sassuolo60%
    Best odds for this sectionUnder 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · Model 62% vs implied 52% · edge +9.1 pts
    1.91
    Check odds @ 1.91
    Load more odds for this section
    BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 57%
    1.7
    Check odds @ 1.7
    BTTS NoBetUK guide price · model 47%
    2.05
    Check odds @ 2.05
    Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 43%
    1.91
    Check odds @ 1.91
    Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 61%
    1.28
    Check odds @ 1.28
    Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 25%
    3.2
    Check odds @ 3.2
    Player stats

    Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

    Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

    Open Match Centre player odds

    Market odds

    Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

    Market aligned with main pickParma to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 34% vs implied 37% · edge -2.7 pts
    2.7
    Check odds @ 2.7
    Load more odds for this section
    Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 75%
    1.67
    Check odds @ 1.67
    Over 3.5 CardsBetMGM guide price · model 59%
    2
    Check odds @ 2
    BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 57%
    1.7
    Check odds @ 1.7
    Parma Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 45%
    1.98
    Check odds @ 1.98
    Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 43%
    1.91
    Check odds @ 1.91
    Parma to Win is fairly priced at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
    Recent form

    Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

    Parma

    LLLWW
    Last 52W 0D 3L
    Last 5 record
    Last 102W 3D 5L
    17 May 2026A Como0-1
    10 May 2026H AS Roma2-3
    03 May 2026A Inter0-2
    25 Apr 2026H Pisa1-0
    18 Apr 2026A Udinese1-0

    Sassuolo

    LLWDW
    Last 52W 1D 2L
    Last 5 record
    Last 103W 2D 5L
    17 May 2026H Lecce2-3
    08 May 2026A Torino1-2
    03 May 2026H AC Milan2-0
    26 Apr 2026A Fiorentina0-0
    17 Apr 2026H Como2-1
    Market aligned with main pickParma to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 34% vs implied 37% · edge -2.7 pts
    2.7
    Check odds @ 2.7
    Load more odds for this section
    Home / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 62%
    1.36
    Check odds @ 1.36
    Parma Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 45%
    1.98
    Check odds @ 1.98
    Head-to-head

    Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

    4Parma wins
    3Draws
    3Sassuolo wins
    03 Jan 2026Sassuolo v Parma1-1
    02 Aug 2023Parma v Sassuolo1-0
    01 Aug 2021Parma v Sassuolo0-3
    16 May 2021Parma v Sassuolo1-3
    17 Jan 2021Sassuolo v Parma1-1
    16 Feb 2020Sassuolo v Parma0-1
    Market aligned with main pickParma to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 34% vs implied 37% · edge -2.7 pts
    2.7
    Check odds @ 2.7
    Load more odds for this section
    BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 57%
    1.7
    Check odds @ 1.7
    Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 43%
    1.91
    Check odds @ 1.91
    The head-to-head sample gives context for Parma to Win, but it should not overrule the current tactical picture. If previous meetings show goals or momentum swings, they support the market only when the present form and line-ups point to the same game state.
    Season team stats

    Serie A

    Parma38
    Played
    Sassuolo38
    Parma0.7
    Avg goals for
    Sassuolo1.2
    Parma1.2
    Avg goals against
    Sassuolo1.3
    Parma13
    Clean sheets
    Sassuolo8
    Market aligned with main pickParma to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 34% vs implied 37% · edge -2.7 pts
    2.7
    Check odds @ 2.7
    Load more odds for this section
    Parma Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 45%
    1.98
    Check odds @ 1.98
    Season data supports Parma to Win when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.
    League standings snapshot

    Current table context.

    PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
    11Sassuolo493814717-4
    13Parma4538111215-18
    Parma sit in position 13, while Sassuolo sit in position 11, so table pressure belongs in the Parma Win assessment.
    Key match trends

    Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

    20%Parma Over 2.5
    60%Sassuolo Over 2.5
    2.2H2H avg goals
    The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Parma sit at 20% and Sassuolo sit at 60% with the H2H average at 2.2 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

    Related football research

    Fixture links

    Prediction context

    Parma v Sassuolo prediction

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    Betting context

    Start with the clearest numbers above, then check live odds, team news and the full prediction before staking.

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