Football Stats Hub

Parma crestParma
v
Monza crestMonza

Serie A | Sun 06 Sep, 14:00

Parma v Monza Stats

Data last updated: Sat 05 Sep 2026, 08:12 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Parma and Monza meet in a Serie A clash where both teams have yet to secure points this season, highlighting a cautious start. Parma's defense has conceded 1.5 goals per game while Monza has been leakier at 3.5, but Monza's attack has shown more potency. Tactical setups suggest a measured approach from both sides, with neither team having found consistent offensive rhythm. This match could hinge on defensive solidity and midfield control, setting the stage for a potentially low-scoring encounter with tight margins.

BT4Y match pick

Under 2.5 Goals

  • Parma has not scored or conceded many goals, with 0 goals for and 1.5 against on average.
  • Monza concedes more but also has a high BTTS rate, indicating some offensive threat.
  • Both teams have low corner averages, suggesting limited attacking pressure from wide areas.
  • Monza averages more shots on target than Parma, but Parma's defensive discipline may limit scoring.
  • Recent form shows Parma with no over 2.5 goals matches, while Monza has had all matches over 2.5 goals, indicating contrasting trends.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Under 2.5 Goals with a 57.5% chance, reflecting Parma's defensive resilience and Monza's inconsistent attack. Despite Monza's higher goals conceded, Parma's low scoring and tight defensive stats suggest a cautious game. The price is slightly short, implying the market expects more goals than the model predicts. Reduced stakes are advised due to this price sensitivity. Player-level data shows key attackers like D. Romero generate shots but have yet to convert, supporting a low-scoring outlook.

Model Probability57.5% chance for Under 2.5 Goals
Positive
Market Implied Chance61.7%, slightly short price
Neutral
Recent Team FormParma 0 goals scored, Monza 1.5 goals scored per game
Positive
Player Shooting DataD. Romero 9.64 shots on target per 90 but no goals
Positive
BTTS RatesParma 0%, Monza 100%
Neutral
Main risk

However, facing a Monza side that conceded four to Inter Milan and three to Udinese offers Parma their most realistic opportunity to score.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Tactical and statistical rationale for Under 2.5 Goals

“This fixture looks set for a tactical battle with limited clear-cut chances, making Under 2.5 Goals a logical choice despite Monza's attacking flashes. Parma's defensive discipline and Monza's finishing issues point to a low-scoring game.”

Key Data Signals

Under 2.5 Goals evidence

Parma has not scored or conceded many goals, with 0 goals for and 1.5 against on average.

Monza concedes more but also has a high BTTS rate, indicating some offensive threat.

Both teams have low corner averages, suggesting limited attacking pressure from wide areas.

Monza averages more shots on target than Parma, but Parma's defensive discipline may limit scoring.

What To Watch In The Data

Under 2.5 Goals notes

  • Recent head-to-head meetings average 1.75 goals per game, indicating generally low-scoring encounters.
  • Over the last four matches, the trend favors Under 2.5 Goals, with no high-scoring outliers.
  • This trend supports a controlled tempo and defensive focus, reinforcing the likelihood of a low goal count in this fixture.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Parma0
Avg goals scored
Monza1.5
Parma1.5
Avg goals conceded
Monza3.5
Parma0%
BTTS rate
Monza100%
Parma0%
Over 2.5 goals
Monza100%
Market aligned with main pickUnder 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · Model 58% vs implied 62% · edge -4.2 pts
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 66%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 47%
2.3
Check odds @ 2.3
Over 1.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 65%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 29%
4.33
Check odds @ 4.33
BTTS NoBetfred guide price · model 37%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Parma has yet to score or concede many goals this season, while Monza concedes frequently but also scores regularly, reflected in their 100% BTTS rate. This contrast suggests a game where Monza may find chances but Parma's defense could limit scoring, supporting a low total goals scenario with some risk of BTTS.

Continue the research

Useful next reads

Serie A fixtures and predictionsrelated match predictioncorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting anglesstats dashboardfootball analysis hubprediction centrebest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 66% vs implied 51% · edge +15 pts
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Load more odds for this section
Monza to WinBetfred guide price · model 42%
2.9
Check odds @ 2.9
Parma Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 52%
2.02
Check odds @ 2.02
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 47%
2.3
Check odds @ 2.3
Parma to WinBetMGM guide price · model 42%
2.6
Check odds @ 2.6
Monza Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 53%
1.78
Check odds @ 1.78
DrawBet365 guide price · model 30%
3.1
Check odds @ 3.1
The Under 2.5 Goals market is priced slightly short at 1.62, reflecting market expectations of a more open game than the model suggests. The model's 57.5% probability indicates a cautious scoring outlook, so the current warrant reduced stakes rather than full . drift towards 1.70 or higher would improve value.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Parma2.5
Avg corners for
Monza3
Parma8.5
Avg total corners
Monza6
Parma1.5
Avg yellow cards
Monza1.5
Parma8.5
Avg shots
Monza11
Best odds for this sectionOver 4.5 CardsBetfred guide price · Model 51% vs implied 46% · edge +5 pts
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Load more odds for this section
Over 10.5 CornersBetfred guide price
3.75
Check odds @ 3.75
Over 9.5 CornersBetfred guide price · model 32%
2.62
Check odds @ 2.62
Over 8.5 CornersBetUK guide price · model 38%
2
Check odds @ 2
Both teams average only three corners per game, indicating limited wide attacking pressure. Parma's low yellow card count contrasts with Monza's higher fouling and card risk, especially from defender L. Shot data shows Parma generates more shots but fewer on target than Monza, suggesting moderate attacking threat balanced by defensive discipline.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Parma

LL
Last 50W 0D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 0D 2L
29 Aug 2026A Juventus0-2
22 Aug 2026H Cagliari0-1

Monza

LL
Last 50W 0D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 0D 2L
29 Aug 2026H Udinese2-3
22 Aug 2026A Inter1-4
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBetMGM guide price · Model 72% vs implied 67% · edge +5.2 pts
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Load more odds for this section
Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 71%
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
Monza to WinBetfred guide price · model 42%
2.9
Check odds @ 2.9
Parma Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 52%
2.02
Check odds @ 2.02
Parma to WinBetMGM guide price · model 42%
2.6
Check odds @ 2.6
Monza Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 53%
1.78
Check odds @ 1.78
DrawBet365 guide price · model 30%
3.1
Check odds @ 3.1
Parma's recent form shows no goals scored and a 0% over 2.5 goals rate, indicating a defensive approach or attacking struggles. Monza contrasts with a 100% over 2.5 goals rate but also concedes heavily. This mixed form data suggests a match where Parma's solidity may suppress Monza's scoring, favoring Under 2.5 Goals despite Monza's attacking tendencies.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

1Parma wins
3Draws
0Monza wins
15 Mar 2025Monza v Parma1-1
28 Dec 2024Parma v Monza2-1
02 Mar 2022Monza v Parma1-1
17 Oct 2021Parma v Monza0-0
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 66% vs implied 51% · edge +15 pts
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Load more odds for this section
Monza to WinBetfred guide price · model 42%
2.9
Check odds @ 2.9
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 47%
2.3
Check odds @ 2.3
Parma to WinBetMGM guide price · model 42%
2.6
Check odds @ 2.6
DrawBet365 guide price · model 30%
3.1
Check odds @ 3.1
The four previous meetings between Parma and Monza have averaged 1.75 goals per game, reflecting a history of low-scoring matches. This limited sample suggests a tendency for tight contests, providing background support for the Under 2.5 Goals selection but should be weighed alongside current form and tactical setups.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

Open Match Centre player odds

Season team stats

Serie A

Parma2
Played
Monza0
Parma0
Avg goals for
Monza-
Parma1.5
Avg goals against
Monza-
Parma0
Clean sheets
Monza-
Best odds for this sectionMonza to WinBetfred guide price · Model 42% vs implied 35% · edge +7.8 pts
2.9
Check odds @ 2.9
Load more odds for this section
Parma Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 52%
2.02
Check odds @ 2.02
Parma to WinBetMGM guide price · model 42%
2.6
Check odds @ 2.6
Monza Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 53%
1.78
Check odds @ 1.78
Season-long stats reveal Parma's low scoring and moderate defensive record, while Monza concedes more but also scores at a higher rate. Parma's defensive numbers support a low-scoring game, while Monza's attack could challenge this. Overall, the season data aligns with a cautious goal total, consistent with the Under 2.5 Goals pick.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
16Parma02002-3
17Monza02002-4
Both Parma and Monza sit near the bottom of the Serie A table with zero points, increasing the stakes for a positive result. This pressure may lead to cautious tactics focused on defensive solidity, supporting a low-scoring game scenario. The standings context suggests neither side will take excessive risks early in the match.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

0%Parma Over 2.5
100%Monza Over 2.5
1.75H2H avg goals
Recent head-to-head meetings average 1.75 goals per game, indicating generally low-scoring encounters. Over the last four matches, the trend favors Under 2.5 Goals, with no high-scoring outliers. This trend supports a controlled tempo and defensive focus, reinforcing the likelihood of a low goal count in this fixture.

Related football research

Fixture links

Prediction context

Parma v Monza prediction

Open the full betting preview for the editorial pick, odds context and final selection.

More stats pages

Fiorentina v TorinoSerie A · Sat 05 Sep 14:00Inter v NapoliSerie A · Sat 05 Sep 17:00AS Roma v AtalantaSerie A · Sat 05 Sep 19:45Frosinone v VeneziaSerie A · Sun 06 Sep 14:00

Competition and hubs

Serie A hubSerie A fixtures and predictionsrelated match predictioncorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting anglesstats dashboard

Next step

Betting context

Start with the clearest numbers above, then check live odds, team news and the full prediction before staking.

Read full prediction View match centre