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Parma crestParma
v
Bologna crestBologna

Serie A | Sat 07 Nov, 17:00

Parma v Bologna Stats

Data last updated: Sat 07 Nov 2026, 11:47 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Bologna visits Parma in a Serie A clash where recent form and attacking prowess set the stage for an away victory. Bologna has collected 12 points recently, showing a stronger offensive output with 2.2 goals per game compared to Parma's 0.8. Parma's struggles in front of goal and lower points tally underline their challenges. Bologna's tactical setup emphasizes forward pressure and goal threat, while Parma's defense has conceded 1.6 goals per match, indicating vulnerability. This match offers Bologna a chance to capitalize on their momentum and secure a valuable win.

BT4Y best bet

Bologna to Win

  • Bologna has a 70% to win with positive value at 1.83 .
  • Bologna averages 2.2 goals per game, significantly higher than Parma's 0.8.
  • Parma's defense concedes 1.6 goals per match, creating scoring opportunities for Bologna.
  • Bologna's recent form yields 12 points versus Parma's 4 in the same period.
  • Head-to-head matches average 3.1 goals, supporting an open game scenario.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Bologna to win due to their superior recent form, scoring rate, and defensive solidity compared to Parma. Bologna's 70% win probability reflects their consistent offensive threat, averaging 2.2 goals per game, and a defense conceding fewer goals than Parma. Parma's low scoring average and defensive frailties increase the likelihood of Bologna capitalizing. The of 1.83 offer positive value against the implied 54.6% chance, making this a sound selection. No data limitations affect in this pick.

Recent formBologna 12 points vs Parma 4 points
Strong positive
Goals scored per gameBologna 2.2 vs Parma 0.8
Strong positive
Goals conceded per gameParma 1.6 vs Bologna 1.4
Positive
Model win probability70% for Bologna
Strong positive
Odds value edge69.6% model chance vs 54.6% implied (+15 pts)
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Bologna's superior attacking form and defensive resilience make them the clear choice to win this fixture. Their ability to convert chances and maintain defensive discipline contrasts with Parma's struggles in both areas, suggesting Bologna will control the match and secure victory.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome

“Bologna's consistent goal threat and defensive stability position them well to exploit Parma's vulnerabilities. Their recent momentum and balanced squad depth provide a tactical edge in this Serie A encounter.”

Key Data Signals

Bologna to Win evidence

Bologna has a 70% to win with positive value at 1.83 .

Bologna averages 2.2 goals per game, significantly higher than Parma's 0.8.

Parma's defense concedes 1.6 goals per match, creating scoring opportunities for Bologna.

Bologna's recent form yields 12 points versus Parma's 4 in the same period.

What To Watch In The Data

Bologna to Win notes

  • Over the last 10 head-to-head meetings, the average goals per game is 3.1, indicating a trend towards open, attacking matches.
  • Both teams have an 80% rate of games going over 2.5 goals recently, suggesting this fixture is likely to feature multiple scoring opportunities and a lively tempo.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Parma0.8
Avg goals scored
Bologna2.2
Parma1.6
Avg goals conceded
Bologna1.4
Parma20%
BTTS rate
Bologna80%
Parma80%
Over 2.5 goals
Bologna80%
Best odds for this sectionOver 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 86% vs implied 74% · edge +12.2 pts
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
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Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 63%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 63%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Over 3.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 40%
4
Check odds @ 4
BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 41%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Under 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 36%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Both teams have contrasting BTTS rates: Parma at 20% and Bologna at 80%, indicating Bologna's likelihood to score while Parma may struggle offensively. The average 3.1 goals in their last 10 meetings suggest a match prone to multiple goals, favoring an open game with Bologna scoring.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickBologna to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 70% vs implied 55% · edge +15 pts
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
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Bologna Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 72%
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 63%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 63%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Over 3.5 CardsBetMGM guide price · model 61%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 50%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
The 69.6% for Bologna to Win sits against roughly 54.6% implied by the current price (+15 pts). Bologna have the stronger recent points return, taking 12 points from the sample compared with 4 for Parma. A goalless draw against Udinese provided the foundation before Parma delivered their most impressive performance of the campaign, dismantling Atalanta 3-0 away from home.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Parma

WDLLL
Last 51W 1D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 2D 6L
02 Nov 2026A Atalanta3-0
28 Oct 2026H Udinese0-0
24 Oct 2026A Lazio1-2
19 Oct 2026H Torino0-3
10 Oct 2026A Inter0-3

Bologna

WWWLW
Last 54W 0D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 104W 2D 4L
31 Oct 2026H Monza2-1
28 Oct 2026A AC Milan4-2
24 Oct 2026A Cagliari2-0
17 Oct 2026H Inter1-3
11 Oct 2026A Lecce2-1
Market aligned with main pickBologna to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 70% vs implied 55% · edge +15 pts
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
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Bologna Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 72%
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
Away / DrawBetUK guide price · model 84%
1.18
Check odds @ 1.18
Bologna's recent run of 12 points contrasts sharply with Parma's 4, reflecting better consistency and attacking output. Bologna's ability to maintain pressure and convert chances underpins their favored status, while Parma's low scoring and points tally indicate struggles to influence matches positively.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

80%Parma Over 2.5
80%Bologna Over 2.5
3.1H2H avg goals
Over the last 10 head-to-head meetings, the average goals per game is 3.1, indicating a trend towards open, attacking matches. Both teams have an 80% rate of games going over 2.5 goals recently, suggesting this fixture is likely to feature multiple scoring opportunities and a lively tempo.

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