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Paris Saint Germain crestParis Saint Germain
v
Arsenal crestArsenal

UEFA Champions League | Sat 30 May, 17:00

Paris Saint Germain v Arsenal Stats

Data last updated: Fri 12 Jun 2026, 03:31 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Paris Saint Germain face Arsenal in UEFA Champions League on Sat 30 May, 17:00. Paris Saint Germain come in with 13 recent points and 2.6 goals per match, while Arsenal have 11 points and 1 goals per match in the same lens. In this competition context, game state, selection calls and recent rhythm matter more than a simple table position.

BT4Y best bet

Paris Saint Germain to Win

  • At 2.4, Paris Saint Germain Win implies roughly 42%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 60%.
  • Paris Saint Germain have the stronger recent points return, taking 13 points from the sample compared with 11 for Arsenal.
  • Arsenal have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.2 conceded per match, which helps the Paris Saint Germain Win angle more than a raw possession edge.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 60% for Paris Saint Germain Win sits against roughly 42% implied by the current price. Paris Saint Germain have the stronger recent points return, taking 13 points from the sample compared with 11 for Arsenal.

Model chance vs price60% model chance against roughly 42% implied
Strong positive
Paris Saint Germain have the stronger recent points return, taking.Visible data support
Positive
Arsenal have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.2 conceded per.Visible data support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Paris Saint Germain Win is the preferred angle because the market is supported by the current team numbers Paris Saint Germain have the stronger recent points return, taking 13 points from the sample compared with 11 for Arsenal. Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Key Data Signals

Paris Saint Germain Win evidence

Paris Saint Germain have the stronger recent points return, taking 13 points from the sample compared with 11 for Arsenal.

Arsenal have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.2 conceded per match, which helps the Paris Saint Germain Win angle more than a raw possession edge.

What To Watch In The Data

Paris Saint Germain Win notes

    Goals, BTTS and over/under

    Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

    Paris Saint Germain2.6
    Avg goals scored
    Arsenal1
    Paris Saint Germain1
    Avg goals conceded
    Arsenal0.2
    Paris Saint Germain40%
    BTTS rate
    Arsenal20%
    Paris Saint Germain40%
    Over 2.5 goals
    Arsenal0%
    Best odds for this sectionUnder 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · Model 60% vs implied 58% · edge +1.9 pts
    1.73
    Check odds @ 1.73
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    BTTS NoBetfred guide price · model 54%
    1.91
    Check odds @ 1.91
    BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 50%
    1.91
    Check odds @ 1.91
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 44%
    2.1
    Check odds @ 2.1
    Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 62%
    1.36
    Check odds @ 1.36
    Over 3.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 26%
    4
    Check odds @ 4
    Under 2.5 Goals is more of a watchlist angle than a must-bet: recent Over 2.5 rates are 40% for Paris Saint Germain and 0% for Arsenal, so the goals line needs support from both scoring profiles.

    Continue the research

    Useful next reads

    UEFA Champions League fixtures and predictionscorners trends hubplayer stats betting anglesfootball stats hubfootball hubfootball predictions hubbest bets researchacca fixture filtering
    Market odds

    Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

    Market aligned with main pickParis Saint Germain to WinBet365 guide price · Model 60% vs implied 42% · edge +17.8 pts
    2.4
    Check odds @ 2.4
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    Paris Saint Germain Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 68%
    2
    Check odds @ 2
    BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 50%
    1.91
    Check odds @ 1.91
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 44%
    2.1
    Check odds @ 2.1
    Paris Saint Germain to Win is positive value at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
    Corners, cards and shots

    Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

    Paris Saint Germain3.6
    Avg corners for
    Arsenal5.6
    Paris Saint Germain8.4
    Avg total corners
    Arsenal10
    Paris Saint Germain1.2
    Avg yellow cards
    Arsenal0.2
    Paris Saint Germain13
    Avg shots
    Arsenal13.6
    Best odds for this sectionOver 9.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · Model 51% vs implied 55% · edge -3.4 pts
    1.83
    Check odds @ 1.83
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    Over 4.5 CardsBetMGM guide price · model 40%
    2.05
    Check odds @ 2.05
    Over 9.5 Corners needs a clear match pattern behind it. For corners, that means territory, wide deliveries and blocked shots; for cards, it means duels and transition fouls; for shots, it means repeat box entries rather than harmless possession.
    Recent form

    Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

    Paris Saint Germain

    DWWWW
    Last 54W 1D 0L
    Last 5 record
    Last 106W 3D 1L
    06 May 2026A Bayern München1-1
    28 Apr 2026H Bayern München5-4
    14 Apr 2026A Liverpool2-0
    08 Apr 2026H Liverpool2-0
    17 Mar 2026A Chelsea3-0

    Arsenal

    WDDWW
    Last 53W 2D 0L
    Last 5 record
    Last 107W 3D 0L
    05 May 2026H Atletico Madrid1-0
    29 Apr 2026A Atletico Madrid1-1
    15 Apr 2026H Sporting CP0-0
    07 Apr 2026A Sporting CP1-0
    17 Mar 2026H Bayer Leverkusen2-0
    Market aligned with main pickParis Saint Germain to WinBet365 guide price · Model 60% vs implied 42% · edge +17.8 pts
    2.4
    Check odds @ 2.4
    Load more odds for this section
    Paris Saint Germain Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 68%
    2
    Check odds @ 2
    Home / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 84%
    1.25
    Check odds @ 1.25
    Head-to-head

    Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

    2Paris Saint Germain wins
    2Draws
    2Arsenal wins
    07 May 2025Paris Saint Germain v Arsenal2-1
    29 Apr 2025Arsenal v Paris Saint Germain0-1
    01 Oct 2024Arsenal v Paris Saint Germain2-0
    28 Jul 2018Arsenal v Paris Saint Germain5-1
    23 Nov 2016Arsenal v Paris Saint Germain2-2
    13 Sep 2016Paris Saint Germain v Arsenal1-1
    Market aligned with main pickParis Saint Germain to WinBet365 guide price · Model 60% vs implied 42% · edge +17.8 pts
    2.4
    Check odds @ 2.4
    Load more odds for this section
    BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 50%
    1.91
    Check odds @ 1.91
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 44%
    2.1
    Check odds @ 2.1
    The head-to-head sample gives context for Paris Saint Germain to Win, but it should not overrule the current tactical picture. If previous meetings show goals or momentum swings, they support the market only when the present form and line-ups point to the same game state.
    Player stats

    Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

    Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

    Open Match Centre player odds

    Season team stats

    UEFA Champions League

    Paris Saint Germain17
    Played
    Arsenal15
    Paris Saint Germain2.7
    Avg goals for
    Arsenal2
    Paris Saint Germain1.4
    Avg goals against
    Arsenal0.5
    Paris Saint Germain5
    Clean sheets
    Arsenal9
    Market aligned with main pickParis Saint Germain to WinBet365 guide price · Model 60% vs implied 42% · edge +17.8 pts
    2.4
    Check odds @ 2.4
    Load more odds for this section
    Paris Saint Germain Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 68%
    2
    Check odds @ 2
    Season data supports Paris Saint Germain to Win when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.
    League standings snapshot

    Current table context.

    PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
    1Arsenal24880019
    11Paris Saint Germain14842210
    UEFA Champions League standings are background only here: the useful read is whether the form and chance profile translate into control, territory and clear openings in this specific fixture.
    Key match trends

    Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

    40%Paris Saint Germain Over 2.5
    0%Arsenal Over 2.5
    3H2H avg goals
    The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Paris Saint Germain sit at 40% and Arsenal sit at 0% with the H2H average at 3 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

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    Next step

    Betting context

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