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Paris FC crestParis FC
v
Stade Brestois 29 crestStade Brestois 29

Ligue 1 | Sun 03 May, 16:15

Paris FC v Stade Brestois 29 Stats

Data last updated: Thu 23 Jul 2026, 17:17 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Paris FC face Stade Brestois 29 in Ligue 1 on Sun 03 May, 16:15. Paris FC come in with 10 recent points and 2.2 goals per match, while Stade Brestois 29 have 2 points and 1.4 goals per match in the same lens.

BT4Y best bet

Paris FC to Win

  • At 2, Paris FC to Win implies roughly 50%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 65%.
  • Paris FC have the stronger recent points return, taking 10 points from the sample compared with 2 for Stade Brestois 29.
  • Paris FC have the cleaner defensive sample at 1.2 conceded per match, which helps the Paris FC to Win angle more than a raw possession edge.
  • Paris FC sit 11 in the table, while Stade Brestois 29 sit 12, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 65% for Paris FC to Win sits against roughly 50% implied by the current price. Paris FC have the stronger recent points return, taking 10 points from the sample compared with 2 for Stade Brestois 29.

Model chance vs price65% model chance against roughly 50% implied
Strong positive
Paris FC have the stronger recent points return, taking 10.Visible data support
Positive
Paris FC have the cleaner defensive sample at 1.2 conceded.Visible data support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Paris FC Win is the preferred angle because the market is supported by the current team numbers Paris FC have the stronger recent points return, taking 10 points from the sample compared with 2 for Stade Brestois 29. Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Key Data Signals

Paris FC to Win evidence

Paris FC have the stronger recent points return, taking 10 points from the sample compared with 2 for Stade Brestois 29.

Paris FC have the cleaner defensive sample at 1.2 conceded per match, which helps the Paris FC Win angle more than a raw possession edge.

Paris FC sit 11 in the table, while Stade Brestois 29 sit 12, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

What To Watch In The Data

Paris FC to Win notes

    Corners, cards and shots

    Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

    Paris FC5.6
    Avg corners for
    Stade Brestois 292.8
    Paris FC11.6
    Avg total corners
    Stade Brestois 299.4
    Paris FC2.2
    Avg yellow cards
    Stade Brestois 292.6
    Paris FC11.2
    Avg shots
    Stade Brestois 298.4
    Best odds for this sectionOver 3.5 CardsBetfred guide price · Model 66% vs implied 51% · edge +15 pts
    1.95
    Check odds @ 1.95
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    Over 9.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 65%
    2
    Check odds @ 2
    Over 3.5 Cards needs a clear match pattern behind it. For corners, that means territory, wide deliveries and blocked shots; for cards, it means duels and transition fouls; for shots, it means repeat box entries rather than harmless possession.

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    Goals, BTTS and over/under

    Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

    Paris FC2.2
    Avg goals scored
    Stade Brestois 291.4
    Paris FC1.2
    Avg goals conceded
    Stade Brestois 292.6
    Paris FC80%
    BTTS rate
    Stade Brestois 2960%
    Paris FC60%
    Over 2.5 goals
    Stade Brestois 2960%
    Best odds for this sectionUnder 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · Model 62% vs implied 48% · edge +14.4 pts
    2.1
    Check odds @ 2.1
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    BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 48%
    3
    Check odds @ 3
    Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 60%
    1.22
    Check odds @ 1.22
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 42%
    1.73
    Check odds @ 1.73
    Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 24%
    2.75
    Check odds @ 2.75
    BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 28%
    1.36
    Check odds @ 1.36
    Player stats

    Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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    Market odds

    Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

    Market aligned with main pickParis FC to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 65% vs implied 50% · edge +15 pts
    2
    Check odds @ 2
    Load more odds for this section
    Over 3.5 CardsBetfred guide price · model 66%
    1.95
    Check odds @ 1.95
    Paris FC Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 65%
    2
    Check odds @ 2
    BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 48%
    3
    Check odds @ 3
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 42%
    1.73
    Check odds @ 1.73
    Paris FC to Win is positive value at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
    Recent form

    Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

    Paris FC

    LWWDW
    Last 53W 1D 1L
    Last 5 record
    Last 104W 4D 2L
    26 Apr 2026H Lille0-1
    19 Apr 2026A Metz3-1
    10 Apr 2026H Monaco4-1
    05 Apr 2026A Lorient1-1
    22 Mar 2026H Le Havre3-2

    Stade Brestois 29

    DDLLL
    Last 50W 2D 3L
    Last 5 record
    Last 104W 3D 3L
    24 Apr 2026H Lens3-3
    19 Apr 2026A Nantes1-1
    04 Apr 2026H Rennes3-4
    21 Mar 2026A Auxerre0-3
    14 Mar 2026A Monaco0-2
    Market aligned with main pickParis FC to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 65% vs implied 50% · edge +15 pts
    2
    Check odds @ 2
    Load more odds for this section
    Paris FC Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 65%
    2
    Check odds @ 2
    Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 86%
    1.25
    Check odds @ 1.25
    Head-to-head

    Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

    1Paris FC wins
    5Draws
    3Stade Brestois 29 wins
    14 Sep 2025Stade Brestois 29 v Paris FC1-2
    21 Jan 2019Paris FC v Stade Brestois 290-1
    10 Aug 2018Stade Brestois 29 v Paris FC1-1
    24 Feb 2018Paris FC v Stade Brestois 290-1
    22 Sep 2017Stade Brestois 29 v Paris FC1-1
    08 Aug 2017Paris FC v Stade Brestois 290-0
    Market aligned with main pickParis FC to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 65% vs implied 50% · edge +15 pts
    2
    Check odds @ 2
    Load more odds for this section
    BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 48%
    3
    Check odds @ 3
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 42%
    1.73
    Check odds @ 1.73
    The head-to-head sample gives context for Paris FC to Win, but it should not overrule the current tactical picture. If previous meetings show goals or momentum swings, they support the market only when the present form and line-ups point to the same game state.
    Season team stats

    Ligue 1

    Paris FC34
    Played
    Stade Brestois 2934
    Paris FC1.4
    Avg goals for
    Stade Brestois 291.3
    Paris FC1.5
    Avg goals against
    Stade Brestois 291.6
    Paris FC8
    Clean sheets
    Stade Brestois 299
    Market aligned with main pickParis FC to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 65% vs implied 50% · edge +15 pts
    2
    Check odds @ 2
    Load more odds for this section
    Paris FC Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 65%
    2
    Check odds @ 2
    Season data supports Paris FC to Win when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.
    League standings snapshot

    Current table context.

    PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
    11Paris FC4434111112-3
    12Stade Brestois 29393410915-12
    Paris FC sit in position 11, while Stade Brestois 29 sit in position 12, so table pressure belongs in the Paris FC to Win assessment.
    Key match trends

    Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

    60%Paris FC Over 2.5
    60%Stade Brestois 29 Over 2.5
    1.33H2H avg goals
    The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Paris FC sit at 60% and Stade Brestois 29 sit at 60% with the H2H average at 1.33 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

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