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Palmeiras crestPalmeiras
v
RB Bragantino crestRB Bragantino

Serie A | Sat 24 Oct, 22:30

Palmeiras v RB Bragantino Stats

Data last updated: Fri 23 Oct 2026, 08:22 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Palmeiras face RB Bragantino in a Serie A clash where Palmeiras sit second with strong defensive credentials, conceding just 0.2 goals per game recently. RB Bragantino, ranked tenth, have a more open style but have struggled defensively, conceding 1.4 goals per match. Palmeiras' solid backline and Bragantino's inconsistent attack set the stage for a tactical battle likely to limit scoring opportunities. Both teams have shown moderate goal-scoring form, suggesting a cautious approach in this fixture with defensive discipline expected to be key.

BT4Y best bet

Under 2.5 Goals

  • Palmeiras concede only 0.2 goals per game recently, indicating strong defensive form
  • RB Bragantino have conceded 1.4 goals per game, showing defensive vulnerability
  • Both teams have low Over 2.5 Goals rates: Palmeiras 20%, Bragantino 40%
  • Average goals in last 10 meetings is 2.1, supporting a lower-scoring game
  • Palmeiras rank 2nd with 66 points, emphasizing their control in matches

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Under 2.5 Goals with a 66% chance, reflecting Palmeiras' exceptional defensive record and Bragantino's moderate scoring threat. Palmeiras' recent matches show a strong defensive structure, conceding very few goals, while Bragantino's attacking output is inconsistent. The average goals in their head-to-head matches is just over 2, reinforcing the likelihood of a low-scoring game. The offer positive value with an 18.4% edge, making Under 2.5 Goals a sensible selection based on tactical and statistical evidence.

Palmeiras Defensive Solidity0.2 goals conceded per game
Strong positive
Bragantino Scoring Inconsistency1.4 goals scored per game
Positive
Head-to-Head Average Goals2.1 goals per match
Positive
Over 2.5 Goals Rate Palmeiras20%
Strong positive
Over 2.5 Goals Rate Bragantino40%
Neutral

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Under 2.5 Goals is a strong tactical call given Palmeiras' defensive mastery and Bragantino's inconsistent attack. Palmeiras' ability to limit chances and control tempo, combined with Bragantino's modest scoring record, suggests a low-scoring encounter. The data supports a cautious game with few clear-cut chances, making Under 2.5 Goals a logical outcome.

Main risk

A slower tempo or weaker chance quality would make the goals market harder to justify at the current price.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · defensive control and tactical caution

“Palmeiras' defensive discipline and Bragantino's moderate offensive threat create a scenario where goals will be at a premium. Expect a tactical, tight contest with limited clear chances, favoring Under 2.5 Goals.”

Key Data Signals

Under 2.5 Goals evidence

Palmeiras concede only 0.2 goals per game recently, indicating strong defensive form

RB Bragantino have conceded 1.4 goals per game, showing defensive vulnerability

Average goals in last 10 meetings is 2.1, supporting a lower-scoring game

What To Watch In The Data

Under 2.5 Goals notes

  • In the last ten meetings, the average goals scored is 2.1, indicating a trend towards lower-scoring games.
  • This sample suggests matches between these teams tend to be tactical with limited goal-scoring, supporting the Under 2.5 Goals trend for this fixture.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Palmeiras1.8
Avg goals scored
RB Bragantino1.4
Palmeiras0.2
Avg goals conceded
RB Bragantino1.4
Palmeiras20%
BTTS rate
RB Bragantino80%
Palmeiras20%
Over 2.5 goals
RB Bragantino40%
Market aligned with main pickUnder 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · Model 63% vs implied 48% · edge +15 pts
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
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BTTS YesBetUK guide price · model 63%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
BTTS NoBetfred guide price · model 41%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 55%
1.22
Check odds @ 1.22
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 22%
2.75
Check odds @ 2.75
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 37%
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
Goal trends suggest a low-scoring match: Palmeiras have a 20% Over 2.5 rate and only 20% BTTS, while Bragantino have a higher BTTS rate at 80% but still moderate scoring. Their head-to-head average of 2.1 goals supports a game likely to stay under 2.5 goals, with defensive solidity limiting scoring chances.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Palmeiras

WWWDW
Last 54W 1D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 105W 4D 1L
17 Oct 2026A Atletico Paranaense2-0
11 Oct 2026H Corinthians4-1
09 Oct 2026H Bahia1-0
20 Sep 2026A Gremio0-0
12 Sep 2026H Sao Paulo2-0

RB Bragantino

DWDLL
Last 51W 2D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 4D 4L
18 Oct 2026A Remo1-1
13 Oct 2026H Cruzeiro4-2
07 Oct 2026H Mirassol1-1
03 Oct 2026A Atletico-MG0-1
20 Sep 2026A Flamengo1-2
Best odds for this sectionPalmeiras to WinBet365 guide price · Model 74% vs implied 65% · edge +8.6 pts
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
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Palmeiras Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 78%
1.3
Check odds @ 1.3
Home / DrawBetfred guide price · model 86%
1.12
Check odds @ 1.12
RB Bragantino Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 42%
3.45
Check odds @ 3.45
Away / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 45%
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
RB Bragantino to WinBetfred guide price · model 23%
6.25
Check odds @ 6.25
DrawBet365 guide price · model 18%
4.1
Check odds @ 4.1
Palmeiras have earned 13 points recently with a strong defensive record, conceding only 0.2 goals per game, while Bragantino have collected 5 points with a more porous defense. Both teams' recent low Over 2.5 Goals rates (20% and 40%) reinforce the expectation of a tight, low-scoring match.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionPalmeiras to WinBet365 guide price · Model 74% vs implied 65% · edge +8.6 pts
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetUK guide price · model 63%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Palmeiras Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 78%
1.3
Check odds @ 1.3
RB Bragantino Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 42%
3.45
Check odds @ 3.45
Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 75%
1.25
Check odds @ 1.25
RB Bragantino to WinBetfred guide price · model 23%
6.25
Check odds @ 6.25
DrawBet365 guide price · model 18%
4.1
Check odds @ 4.1
The 62.6% for Under 2.5 Goals sits against roughly 47.6% implied by the current price (+15 pts). The Over 2.5 trend is 20% for Palmeiras and 40% for RB Bragantino, so the goals angle is not just a price call.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

20%Palmeiras Over 2.5
40%RB Bragantino Over 2.5
2.1H2H avg goals
In the last ten meetings, the average goals scored is 2.1, indicating a trend towards lower-scoring games. This sample suggests matches between these teams tend to be tactical with limited goal-scoring, supporting the Under 2.5 Goals trend for this fixture.

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