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Palermo crestPalermo
v
Lecce crestLecce

Coppa Italia | Mon 17 Aug, 20:15

Palermo v Lecce Stats

Data last updated: Mon 07 Sep 2026, 18:53 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Palermo face Lecce in Coppa Italia on Mon 17 Aug, 20:15. Palermo's attack is led by Joel Pohjanpalo, who scored 24 league goals last season and five in his last 10 matches.

BT4Y best bet

Loses if either side fails to score (e

  • At 8/1, Loses if either side fails to score (e implies roughly 11%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 26%.
  • Palermo vs Lecce: Pohjanpalo Threat Meets Lecce’s Away Problem.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 26% for Loses if either side fails to score (e sits against roughly 11% implied by the current price. Palermo vs Lecce: Pohjanpalo Threat Meets Lecce’s Away Problem.

Model chance vs price26% model chance against roughly 11% implied
Strong positive
Palermo vs Lecce: Pohjanpalo Threat Meets Lecce’s Away Problem.Article support
Positive
Price sensitivityEdge +15 pts
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Lecce Win is the preferred angle because palermo vs Lecce: Pohjanpalo Threat Meets Lecce’s Away Problem. Those figures do not automatically dictate how Monday unfolds, but they do suggest a team that has not consistently generated large attacking volume.

Main risk

Those figures do not automatically dictate how Monday unfolds, but they do suggest a team that has not consistently generated large attacking volume.

Key Data Signals

Loses if either side fails to score (e evidence

Palermo vs Lecce: Pohjanpalo Threat Meets Lecce’s Away Problem.

What To Watch In The Data

Loses if either side fails to score (e notes

    Market odds

    Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

    Market aligned with main pickLecce to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 41% vs implied 33% · edge +7.7 pts
    3
    Check odds @ 3
    Load more odds for this section
    Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 57%
    2
    Check odds @ 2
    Lecce Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 52%
    2.05
    Check odds @ 2.05
    Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price
    1.57
    Check odds @ 1.57
    BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 50%
    1.75
    Check odds @ 1.75
    Lecce to Win is positive value at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
    Goals, BTTS and over/under

    Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

    Palermo-
    Avg goals scored
    Lecce-
    Palermo-
    Avg goals conceded
    Lecce-
    Palermo-
    BTTS rate
    Lecce-
    Palermo-
    Over 2.5 goals
    Lecce-
    Best odds for this sectionOver 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 57% vs implied 50% · edge +7 pts
    2
    Check odds @ 2
    Load more odds for this section
    Over 1.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 75%
    1.3
    Check odds @ 1.3
    Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 39%
    3.4
    Check odds @ 3.4
    BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 54%
    2
    Check odds @ 2
    BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 50%
    1.75
    Check odds @ 1.75
    Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 47%
    1.8
    Check odds @ 1.8
    Over 2.5 Goals is more of a watchlist angle than a must-bet; goals for, goals conceded and recent over rates need to point in the same direction.
    Recent form

    Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

    Palermo

    Last 50W 0D 0L
    Last 5 record
    Last 100W 0D 0L

    No recent match sample is available for Palermo yet.

    Lecce

    Last 50W 0D 0L
    Last 5 record
    Last 100W 0D 0L

    No recent match sample is available for Lecce yet.

    Market aligned with main pickLecce to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 41% vs implied 33% · edge +7.7 pts
    3
    Check odds @ 3
    Load more odds for this section
    Away / DrawBetfred guide price · model 71%
    1.57
    Check odds @ 1.57
    Lecce Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 52%
    2.05
    Check odds @ 2.05
    Player stats

    Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

    Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

    Open Match Centre player odds

    Head-to-head

    Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

    4Palermo wins
    2Draws
    0Lecce wins
    02 Mar 2019Palermo v Lecce2-1
    21 Oct 2018Lecce v Palermo1-2
    18 Mar 2012Lecce v Palermo1-1
    27 Oct 2011Palermo v Lecce2-0
    06 Feb 2011Lecce v Palermo2-4
    26 Sep 2010Palermo v Lecce2-2
    Market aligned with main pickLecce to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 41% vs implied 33% · edge +7.7 pts
    3
    Check odds @ 3
    Load more odds for this section
    Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 57%
    2
    Check odds @ 2
    BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 50%
    1.75
    Check odds @ 1.75
    The head-to-head sample gives context for Lecce to Win, but it should not overrule the current tactical picture. If previous meetings show goals or momentum swings, they support the market only when the present form and line-ups point to the same game state.
    Season team stats

    Coppa Italia

    Palermo2
    Played
    Lecce1
    Palermo3.5
    Avg goals for
    Lecce0
    Palermo1
    Avg goals against
    Lecce2
    Palermo1
    Clean sheets
    Lecce0
    Market aligned with main pickLecce to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 41% vs implied 33% · edge +7.7 pts
    3
    Check odds @ 3
    Load more odds for this section
    Lecce Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 52%
    2.05
    Check odds @ 2.05
    Season data supports Lecce to Win when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.
    Key match trends

    Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

    -Palermo Over 2.5
    -Lecce Over 2.5
    3.33H2H avg goals
    Palermo vs Lecce: Pohjanpalo Threat Meets Lecce’s Away Problem.

    Related football research

    Fixture links

    Prediction context

    Palermo v Lecce prediction

    Open the full betting preview for the editorial pick, odds context and final selection.

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    Next step

    Betting context

    Start with the clearest numbers above, then check live odds, team news and the full prediction before staking.

    Read full prediction View match centre