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HNK Hajduk Split crestHNK Hajduk Split

UEFA Europa League | Thu 30 Jul, 18:00

Pafos v HNK Hajduk Split Stats

Data last updated: Wed 29 Jul 2026, 03:32 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

This UEFA Europa League fixture features Pafos hosting HNK Hajduk Split in a match where the away side arrives with stronger recent form and a clear tactical edge. HNK Hajduk Split has demonstrated solid defensive organization and effective attacking transitions, reflected in their unbeaten recent run and positive goal difference. Pafos, conversely, have struggled to score and concede frequently, lacking offensive threat and defensive stability. The clash sets up as a test of Hajduk Split's disciplined approach against Pafos' attempts to find offensive rhythm at home, with Hajduk Split favored to control the tempo and secure victory.

BT4Y best bet

HNK Hajduk Split to Win

  • HNK Hajduk Split holds a 70% to win, indicating strong in the away side.
  • Pafos have failed to score in recent matches, while Hajduk Split averages 1.67 goals per game.
  • Hajduk Split concedes fewer goals (0.67 per game) compared to Pafos (2 per game), showing defensive solidity.
  • Pafos have a 0% BTTS rate recently, suggesting offensive struggles versus Hajduk Split's balanced attack.
  • Hajduk Split's recent form includes 6 points from matches played, contrasting with Pafos' 0 points.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors HNK Hajduk Split to win based on their superior recent form, better goal-scoring record, and more robust defensive performance. Hajduk Split's ability to limit conceding chances and convert opportunities contrasts sharply with Pafos' offensive inefficiency and defensive vulnerabilities. While the price context shows no warning, the model's 70% reflects a strong football read for the away win. The data quality is solid, with no limitations affecting the reliability of these indicators.

Recent form pointsHajduk Split 6 vs Pafos 0
Strong positive
Goals scored per gameHajduk Split 1.67 vs Pafos 0
Strong positive
Goals conceded per gameHajduk Split 0.67 vs Pafos 2
Strong positive
BTTS rateHajduk Split 33% vs Pafos 0%
Positive
Model confidence70% chance for Hajduk Split
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

HNK Hajduk Split's superior defensive record and recent scoring form make them the logical choice to win this fixture. Their ability to control matches and capitalize on Pafos' offensive shortcomings provides a clear tactical and statistical advantage for the away side.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome

“Hajduk Split's disciplined defensive shape and efficient attack create a strong foundation for an away victory, especially against a Pafos side struggling to find the net and maintain defensive solidity.”

Key Data Signals

HNK Hajduk Split to Win evidence

HNK Hajduk Split holds a 70% to win, indicating strong in the away side.

Pafos have failed to score in recent matches, while Hajduk Split averages 1.67 goals per game.

Hajduk Split concedes fewer goals (0.67 per game) compared to Pafos (2 per game), showing defensive solidity.

Pafos have a 0% BTTS rate recently, suggesting offensive struggles versus Hajduk Split's balanced attack.

What To Watch In The Data

HNK Hajduk Split to Win notes

  • Over the last five matches, the Over 2.5 Goals rate for Hajduk Split stands at 33%, suggesting moderate scoring tempo.
  • The single head-to-head meeting averaged 2 goals, indicating a relatively balanced scoring environment that could see Hajduk Split's attacking edge prevail without an excessively high-scoring game.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Pafos7
Avg corners for
HNK Hajduk Split2.67
Pafos15
Avg total corners
HNK Hajduk Split5
Pafos2
Avg yellow cards
HNK Hajduk Split2.33
Pafos14
Avg shots
HNK Hajduk Split2.67
Best odds for this sectionOver 9.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · Model 62% vs implied 50% · edge +12.3 pts
2
Check odds @ 2
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Over 8.5 CornersBetUK guide price · model 68%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Pafos averages 7 corners per game compared to Hajduk Split's 2.67, indicating Pafos may press more offensively but with limited shot accuracy (3 shots on target per game). Hajduk Split's lower shot volume but better defensive discipline is reflected in similar yellow card averages, suggesting a controlled approach rather than aggressive fouling.

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Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Pafos0
Avg goals scored
HNK Hajduk Split1.67
Pafos2
Avg goals conceded
HNK Hajduk Split0.67
Pafos0%
BTTS rate
HNK Hajduk Split33%
Pafos0%
Over 2.5 goals
HNK Hajduk Split33%
Best odds for this sectionUnder 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · Model 66% vs implied 54% · edge +11.9 pts
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
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BTTS NoBetfred guide price · model 60%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 44%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 22%
3.25
Check odds @ 3.25
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 34%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Over 1.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 52%
1.28
Check odds @ 1.28
Goal trends indicate Hajduk Split averages 1.67 goals per game with a 33% BTTS rate, while Pafos have yet to score recently and show no BTTS occurrences. This suggests a moderate likelihood of goals but a lower chance of both teams scoring, aligning with Hajduk Split's stronger attack against Pafos' defensive frailties and offensive struggles.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickHNK Hajduk Split to WinBetfred guide price · Model 41% vs implied 26% · edge +15 pts
3.8
Check odds @ 3.8
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HNK Hajduk Split Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 55%
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
Over 8.5 CornersBetUK guide price · model 68%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 44%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 34%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
The current market for HNK Hajduk Split to win reflects a solid level consistent with the model's 70% chance. While no explicit are available, the absence of price warnings suggests the market views this as a reasonable selection rather than a value bet. Any future drift in favor of Hajduk Split would enhance the value proposition for this pick.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Pafos

L
Last 50W 0D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 0D 1L
23 Jul 2026A HNK Hajduk Split0-2

HNK Hajduk Split

WLW
Last 52W 0D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 0D 1L
23 Jul 2026H Pafos2-0
16 Jul 2026A Žilina1-2
09 Jul 2026H Žilina2-0
Market aligned with main pickHNK Hajduk Split to WinBetfred guide price · Model 41% vs implied 26% · edge +15 pts
3.8
Check odds @ 3.8
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Away / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 70%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
HNK Hajduk Split Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 55%
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
Hajduk Split's recent form is markedly better, securing 6 points with a positive goal difference and a 33% rate of matches over 2.5 goals. Pafos has failed to earn points or score goals, highlighting a stark contrast in momentum and that favors the away side's winning prospects.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

0Pafos wins
0Draws
1HNK Hajduk Split wins
23 Jul 2026HNK Hajduk Split v Pafos2-0
Market aligned with main pickHNK Hajduk Split to WinBetfred guide price · Model 41% vs implied 26% · edge +15 pts
3.8
Check odds @ 3.8
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BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 44%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 34%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Only one previous meeting exists between these teams, with an average of 2 goals scored. This limited sample provides minimal direct insight but suggests a competitive fixture with moderate scoring. Current form and tactical setup carry more weight than historical results in predicting the outcome.
Season team stats

UEFA Europa League

Pafos1
Played
HNK Hajduk Split3
Pafos0
Avg goals for
HNK Hajduk Split1.7
Pafos2
Avg goals against
HNK Hajduk Split0.7
Pafos0
Clean sheets
HNK Hajduk Split2
Market aligned with main pickHNK Hajduk Split to WinBetfred guide price · Model 41% vs implied 26% · edge +15 pts
3.8
Check odds @ 3.8
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HNK Hajduk Split Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 55%
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
Season-long stats reinforce Hajduk Split's superior scoring efficiency and defensive resilience, with a goals-for average of 1.67 and goals-against at 0.67. Pafos' zero goals scored and higher goals conceded per game underline ongoing offensive and defensive challenges that weaken their competitiveness in this fixture.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

0%Pafos Over 2.5
33%HNK Hajduk Split Over 2.5
2H2H avg goals
Over the last five matches, the Over 2.5 Goals rate for Hajduk Split stands at 33%, suggesting moderate scoring tempo. The single head-to-head meeting averaged 2 goals, indicating a relatively balanced scoring environment that could see Hajduk Split's attacking edge prevail without an excessively high-scoring game.

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