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Ospitaletto crestOspitaletto
v
Pergolettese crestPergolettese

Serie C - Girone A | Sun 18 Oct, 16:30

Ospitaletto v Pergolettese Stats

Data last updated: Sat 17 Oct 2026, 09:11 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Ospitaletto and Pergolettese meet in Serie C - Girone A with Ospitaletto sitting comfortably in 3rd place and Pergolettese in 12th. Both teams have shown cautious attacking output recently, with Ospitaletto averaging 1.2 goals per game and Pergolettese 0.8. Defensive solidity is evident as well, with both sides conceding fewer than one goal per match on average. Recent form data suggests a tactical approach favoring control and low-scoring encounters, setting the stage for a tight contest at this mid-October fixture.

BT4Y best bet

Under 2.5 Goals

  • Ospitaletto averages just 1.2 goals scored per game this season.
  • Pergolettese concedes only 0.6 goals per game, indicating strong defense.
  • Both teams have a 40% rate of matches with both teams scoring, suggesting many low-scoring games.
  • Recent form shows Ospitaletto has only 20% of matches over 2.5 goals, reinforcing a defensive style.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Under 2.5 Goals with a 66% probability, reflecting both teams' defensive strengths and modest attacking returns. Ospitaletto's low over 2.5 goals rate (20%) combined with Pergolettese's solid defense supports a low-scoring outcome. The implied value at 1.7 is positive, indicating a good balance between price and probability. No data limitations affect , making this a solid statistical and tactical pick for a tight, controlled match.

Model Probability66% model chance vs 58.8% implied (+7.2 pts)
Strong positive
Ospitaletto Over 2.5 Rate20%
Strong positive
Pergolettese Goals Against0.6 per game
Positive
BTTS Rate Both Teams40%
Neutral

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Under 2.5 Goals is a fitting selection given the defensive discipline both teams have demonstrated this season. Ospitaletto's home solidity and Pergolettese's ability to limit goals conceded suggest a tactical battle with few clear-cut chances. The data supports a cautious game where scoring opportunities will be limited, making a low-goal outcome the most probable scenario.

Main risk

A slower tempo or weaker chance quality would make the goals market harder to justify at the current price.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Defensive tactics and low-scoring expectation

“This fixture is poised for a tactical chess match with both sides prioritizing defensive organization over attacking risk, making Under 2.5 Goals a logical expectation based on current form and season-long defensive records.”

Key Data Signals

Under 2.5 Goals evidence

Ospitaletto averages just 1.2 goals scored per game this season.

Pergolettese concedes only 0.6 goals per game, indicating strong defense.

Both teams have a 40% rate of matches with both teams scoring, suggesting many low-scoring games.

What To Watch In The Data

Under 2.5 Goals notes

  • In the two previous meetings, the average goals scored were 2, indicating a trend toward low-scoring matches.
  • This recent head-to-head history supports the likelihood of Under 2.5 Goals, as both teams have shown defensive resilience and limited offensive breakthroughs in their encounters.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Ospitaletto1.2
Avg goals scored
Pergolettese0.8
Ospitaletto0.8
Avg goals conceded
Pergolettese0.6
Ospitaletto40%
BTTS rate
Pergolettese40%
Ospitaletto20%
Over 2.5 goals
Pergolettese40%
Market aligned with main pickUnder 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 66% vs implied 59% · edge +7.2 pts
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
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BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 50%
2
Check odds @ 2
BTTS NoBetfred guide price · model 54%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 22%
3.75
Check odds @ 3.75
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 34%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 52%
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
Both teams have a moderate BTTS rate of 40%, indicating that while goals are scored, many matches remain low-scoring. Ospitaletto's stronger defensive record and Pergolettese's limited attacking output point toward a controlled match with few goals and a reasonable chance of one side keeping a clean sheet.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Ospitaletto

WDWLD
Last 52W 2D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 105W 3D 1L
11 Oct 2026A Treviso1-0
03 Oct 2026H Renate1-1
26 Sep 2026A Novara2-0
20 Sep 2026H Cittadella0-1
17 Sep 2026A Athletic Carpi2-2

Pergolettese

WDDDD
Last 51W 4D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 5D 2L
10 Oct 2026H Athletic Carpi2-1
03 Oct 2026A Arzignano Valchiampo2-2
26 Sep 2026H Trento0-0
20 Sep 2026A Lecco0-0
17 Sep 2026H Folgore Caratese0-0
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBet365 guide price · Model 63% vs implied 52% · edge +10.5 pts
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
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Pergolettese Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 45%
2.75
Check odds @ 2.75
Pergolettese to WinBetMGM guide price · model 35%
4.2
Check odds @ 4.2
Home / DrawBetfred guide price · model 77%
1.17
Check odds @ 1.17
Ospitaletto Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 59%
1.42
Check odds @ 1.42
Ospitaletto to WinBet365 guide price · model 49%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 28%
3.3
Check odds @ 3.3
Recent form data shows Ospitaletto with 8 points and Pergolettese with 7 from their last matches, both displaying conservative scoring patterns. Ospitaletto's 20% over 2.5 goals rate contrasts with Pergolettese's 40%, but overall the trend favors fewer goals, supporting the Under 2.5 Goals selection.

Continue the research

Useful next reads

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionPergolettese Draw No BetBetUK guide price · Model 45% vs implied 36% · edge +8.2 pts
2.75
Check odds @ 2.75
Load more odds for this section
Pergolettese to WinBetMGM guide price · model 35%
4.2
Check odds @ 4.2
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 50%
2
Check odds @ 2
Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Ospitaletto Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 59%
1.42
Check odds @ 1.42
Ospitaletto to WinBet365 guide price · model 49%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 28%
3.3
Check odds @ 3.3
The 66% for Under 2.5 Goals sits against roughly 58.8% implied by the current price (+7.2 pts). The Over 2.5 trend is 20% for Ospitaletto and 40% for Pergolettese, so the goals angle is not just a price call.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

20%Ospitaletto Over 2.5
40%Pergolettese Over 2.5
2H2H avg goals
In the two previous meetings, the average goals scored were 2, indicating a trend toward low-scoring matches. This recent head-to-head history supports the likelihood of Under 2.5 Goals, as both teams have shown defensive resilience and limited offensive breakthroughs in their encounters.

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