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Osasuna crestOsasuna
v
Racing Santander crestRacing Santander

La Liga | Sun 18 Oct, 13:00

Osasuna v Racing Santander Stats

Data last updated: Sat 17 Oct 2026, 20:26 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Osasuna and Racing Santander meet in a La Liga clash where both teams have shown attacking intent despite defensive vulnerabilities. Osasuna, positioned 16th, have struggled defensively, conceding 3.4 goals per 90 minutes, while Racing Santander, just above in 15th, concede even more at 3.6 per 90. Racing’s perfect record of Over 2.5 Goals in recent matches and Osasuna’s 60% rate suggest an open game with multiple scoring opportunities. Both sides have key attackers in form, setting the stage for a potentially high-scoring encounter with tactical openness and defensive lapses likely to influence the outcome.

BT4Y best bet

Over 2.5 Goals

  • Racing Santander have a 100% Over 2.5 Goals rate recently, Osasuna 60%.
  • Both teams concede over 3 goals per 90 minutes, indicating defensive frailty.
  • Average shots per game: Racing 11.2, Osasuna 8.4, showing attacking volume.
  • H2H average goals stand at 3.33 across six meetings, supporting goal potential.
  • Top attackers like M. Budimir contribute significantly to shot and goal threat.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model assigns a 74.1% chance for Over 2.5 Goals, reflecting strong attacking trends and defensive weaknesses on both sides. Racing Santander’s perfect recent Over 2.5 record and Osasuna’s decent rate combine with high shot volumes and goal threat from key forwards to underpin this prediction. The 12.4% at 1.62 confirms this as a positive-value bet with a solid level of 74. Defensive lapses and open tactical setups are likely to yield multiple goals, making Over 2.5 Goals a compelling selection.

Model Chance74.1% model chance vs 61.7% implied (+12.4 pts)
Strong positive
Recent Over 2.5 RatesRacing 100%, Osasuna 60%
Strong positive
Defensive Concession3.4 and 3.6 goals per 90
Strong positive
Shot VolumeRacing 11.2, Osasuna 8.4 per game
Positive
H2H Average Goals3.33 goals per match
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

This fixture features two teams with porous defenses and active attacking players, making Over 2.5 Goals a logical choice. Racing Santander’s consistent goal-scoring and Osasuna’s willingness to attack despite defensive issues suggest multiple goals. The data highlights a match prone to open play and scoring opportunities, supporting the Over 2.5 Goals selection.

Main risk

A slower tempo or weaker chance quality would make the goals market harder to justify at the current price.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Attacking and defensive dynamics favoring Over 2.5 Goals

“Both Osasuna and Racing Santander have shown defensive vulnerabilities paired with attacking intent, creating a fertile ground for goals. The attacking profiles of players like M. Budimir further enhance the likelihood of a high-scoring game.”

Key Data Signals

Over 2.5 Goals evidence

Racing Santander have a 100% Over 2.5 Goals rate recently, Osasuna 60%.

Both teams concede over 3 goals per 90 minutes, indicating defensive frailty.

Average shots per game: Racing 11.2, Osasuna 8.4, showing attacking volume.

H2H average goals stand at 3.33 across six meetings, supporting goal potential.

What To Watch In The Data

Over 2.5 Goals notes

  • Over the last six head-to-head meetings, the average goals per match is 3.33, indicating a strong historical trend towards high-scoring games.
  • This trend, combined with recent form and defensive records, suggests a match tempo and style conducive to Over 2.5 Goals.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Osasuna1
Avg goals scored
Racing Santander1.6
Osasuna3.4
Avg goals conceded
Racing Santander3.6
Osasuna60%
BTTS rate
Racing Santander80%
Osasuna60%
Over 2.5 goals
Racing Santander100%
Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 74% vs implied 62% · edge +12.4 pts
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 76%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 88%
1.2
Check odds @ 1.2
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 55%
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 30%
2.3
Check odds @ 2.3
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 28%
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
Both teams have high Over 2.5 Goals rates recently, with Racing Santander at 100% and Osasuna at 60%. Their defensive frailties, conceding over 3 goals per 90 minutes each, combined with attacking players frequently testing goalkeepers, suggest a strong likelihood of multiple goals and BTTS scenarios.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 74% vs implied 62% · edge +12.4 pts
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
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BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 76%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
Racing Santander Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 58%
2.35
Check odds @ 2.35
Racing Santander to WinBetfred guide price · model 42%
3.7
Check odds @ 3.7
Over 8.5 CornersBetUK guide price · model 60%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 25%
3.7
Check odds @ 3.7
Osasuna Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 45%
1.58
Check odds @ 1.58
The 74.1% for Over 2.5 Goals sits against roughly 61.7% implied by the current price (+12.4 pts). The Over 2.5 trend is 60% for Osasuna and 100% for Racing Santander, so the goals angle is not just a price call.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Osasuna

LDLLL
Last 50W 1D 4L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 2D 4L
11 Oct 2026A Real Betis2-5
19 Sep 2026H Rayo Vallecano1-1
16 Sep 2026A Atletico Madrid0-4
12 Sep 2026H Espanyol0-2
06 Sep 2026A Alaves2-5

Racing Santander

DLLWL
Last 51W 1D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 2D 4L
11 Oct 2026H Valencia2-2
19 Sep 2026A Celta Vigo0-5
16 Sep 2026A Barcelona2-7
12 Sep 2026H Alaves2-1
05 Sep 2026A Rayo Vallecano2-3
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBet365 guide price · Model 71% vs implied 56% · edge +15 pts
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
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Racing Santander Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 58%
2.35
Check odds @ 2.35
Racing Santander to WinBetfred guide price · model 42%
3.7
Check odds @ 3.7
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 25%
3.7
Check odds @ 3.7
Osasuna Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 45%
1.58
Check odds @ 1.58
Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 52%
1.28
Check odds @ 1.28
Osasuna to WinBetUK guide price · model 27%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Recent form data shows Racing Santander with a perfect 100% Over 2.5 Goals rate and Osasuna at 60%, reflecting a trend towards high-scoring matches. Both teams have scored and conceded frequently, indicating open games and defensive vulnerabilities that increase the likelihood of Over 2.5 Goals in this fixture.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

60%Osasuna Over 2.5
100%Racing Santander Over 2.5
3.33H2H avg goals
Over the last six head-to-head meetings, the average goals per match is 3.33, indicating a strong historical trend towards high-scoring games. This trend, combined with recent form and defensive records, suggests a match tempo and style conducive to Over 2.5 Goals.

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