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Osasuna crestOsasuna
v
Atletico Madrid crestAtletico Madrid

La Liga | Tue 12 May, 20:30

Osasuna v Atletico Madrid Stats

Data last updated: Sun 28 Jun 2026, 22:29 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Osasuna face Atletico Madrid in La Liga on Tue 12 May, 20:30. With Atletico conceding in six of their last seven league matches and missing key defenders, both attacks should find joy against two backlines that have looked increasingly vulnerable in recent outings. Swipe through key markets based on current form at El Sadar.

BT4Y best bet

A team like Osasuna to "start" with a goal, making the bet win even if they draw

  • At 11/2, Osasuna Win implies roughly 15%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 32%.
  • Osasuna have seen both sides score in all home games against top-10 teams this season.
  • Atletico Madrid have the stronger recent points return, taking 6 points from the sample compared with 4 for Osasuna.
  • Osasuna have the cleaner defensive sample at 1.6 conceded per match, which helps the Osasuna Win angle more than a raw possession edge.
  • Osasuna sit 17 in the table, while Atletico Madrid sit 4, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 32% for Osasuna Win sits against roughly 15% implied by the current price. Atletico Madrid have the stronger recent points return, taking 6 points from the sample compared with 4 for Osasuna. Osasuna have seen both sides score in all home games against top-10 teams this season.

Model chance vs price32% model chance against roughly 15% implied
Strong positive
Atletico Madrid have the stronger recent points return, taking 6.Visible data support
Positive
Osasuna have the cleaner defensive sample at 1.6 conceded per.Visible data support
Positive
Osasuna have seen both sides score in all home.Article support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Osasuna Win is the preferred angle because osasuna have seen both sides score in all home games against top-10 teams this season. Atletico Madrid have the stronger recent points return, taking 6 points from the sample compared with 4 for Osasuna. Osasuna can be aggressive, front-footed and brave, but they can also unravel quickly when matches become stretched.

Main risk

Osasuna can be aggressive, front-footed and brave, but they can also unravel quickly when matches become stretched.

Key Data Signals

Osasuna Win evidence

Osasuna have seen both sides score in all home games against top-10 teams this season.

Atletico Madrid have the stronger recent points return, taking 6 points from the sample compared with 4 for Osasuna.

Osasuna have the cleaner defensive sample at 1.6 conceded per match, which helps the Osasuna Win angle more than a raw possession edge.

Osasuna sit 17 in the table, while Atletico Madrid sit 4, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

What To Watch In The Data

Osasuna Win notes

    Goals, BTTS and over/under

    Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

    Osasuna1.2
    Avg goals scored
    Atletico Madrid1.6
    Osasuna1.6
    Avg goals conceded
    Atletico Madrid1.6
    Osasuna80%
    BTTS rate
    Atletico Madrid60%
    Osasuna60%
    Over 2.5 goals
    Atletico Madrid60%
    Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 76% vs implied 60% · edge +16.1 pts
    1.67
    Check odds @ 1.67
    Load more odds for this section
    Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 75%
    1.25
    Check odds @ 1.25
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 57%
    1.8
    Check odds @ 1.8
    Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 39%
    3.2
    Check odds @ 3.2
    Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 48%
    2
    Check odds @ 2
    BTTS NoBetUK guide price · model 28%
    2.1
    Check odds @ 2.1

    Continue the research

    Useful next reads

    La Liga fixtures and predictionsrelated match predictioncorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting anglesstats dashboardfootball analysis hubprediction centrebest bets researchacca fixture filtering
    Market odds

    Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

    Market aligned with main pickOsasuna to WinBet365 guide price · Model 32% vs implied 41% · edge -9.2 pts
    2.45
    Check odds @ 2.45
    Load more odds for this section
    BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 76%
    1.67
    Check odds @ 1.67
    Over 3.5 CardsBetfred guide price · model 63%
    1.62
    Check odds @ 1.62
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 57%
    1.8
    Check odds @ 1.8
    Osasuna Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 45%
    1.8
    Check odds @ 1.8
    Osasuna to Win is price-sensitive at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
    Corners, cards and shots

    Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

    Osasuna3.6
    Avg corners for
    Atletico Madrid5.8
    Osasuna10.4
    Avg total corners
    Atletico Madrid10.6
    Osasuna1.8
    Avg yellow cards
    Atletico Madrid2
    Osasuna9.8
    Avg shots
    Atletico Madrid13
    Best odds for this sectionOver 9.5 CornersBetUK guide price · Model 66% vs implied 50% · edge +15.8 pts
    2
    Check odds @ 2
    Load more odds for this section
    Over 3.5 CardsBetfred guide price · model 63%
    1.62
    Check odds @ 1.62
    Over 9.5 Corners needs a clear match pattern behind it. For corners, that means territory, wide deliveries and blocked shots; for cards, it means duels and transition fouls; for shots, it means repeat box entries rather than harmless possession.
    Recent form

    Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

    Osasuna

    LLWLD
    Last 51W 1D 3L
    Last 5 record
    Last 102W 3D 5L
    08 May 2026A Levante2-3
    02 May 2026H Barcelona1-2
    26 Apr 2026H Sevilla2-1
    21 Apr 2026A Athletic Club0-1
    12 Apr 2026H Real Betis1-1

    Atletico Madrid

    LWWLL
    Last 52W 0D 3L
    Last 5 record
    Last 105W 0D 5L
    09 May 2026H Celta Vigo0-1
    02 May 2026A Valencia2-0
    25 Apr 2026H Athletic Club3-2
    22 Apr 2026A Elche2-3
    11 Apr 2026A Sevilla1-2
    Market aligned with main pickOsasuna to WinBet365 guide price · Model 32% vs implied 41% · edge -9.2 pts
    2.45
    Check odds @ 2.45
    Load more odds for this section
    Osasuna Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 45%
    1.8
    Check odds @ 1.8
    Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 58%
    1.3
    Check odds @ 1.3
    Head-to-head

    Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

    2Osasuna wins
    0Draws
    8Atletico Madrid wins
    18 Oct 2025Atletico Madrid v Osasuna1-0
    15 May 2025Osasuna v Atletico Madrid2-0
    12 Jan 2025Atletico Madrid v Osasuna1-0
    19 May 2024Atletico Madrid v Osasuna1-4
    28 Sep 2023Osasuna v Atletico Madrid0-2
    21 May 2023Atletico Madrid v Osasuna3-0
    Market aligned with main pickOsasuna to WinBet365 guide price · Model 32% vs implied 41% · edge -9.2 pts
    2.45
    Check odds @ 2.45
    Load more odds for this section
    BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 76%
    1.67
    Check odds @ 1.67
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 57%
    1.8
    Check odds @ 1.8
    The head-to-head sample gives context for Osasuna to Win, but it should not overrule the current tactical picture. If previous meetings show goals or momentum swings, they support the market only when the present form and line-ups point to the same game state.
    Player stats

    Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

    Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

    Open Match Centre player odds

    Season team stats

    La Liga

    Osasuna38
    Played
    Atletico Madrid38
    Osasuna1.2
    Avg goals for
    Atletico Madrid1.6
    Osasuna1.3
    Avg goals against
    Atletico Madrid1.2
    Osasuna7
    Clean sheets
    Atletico Madrid14
    Market aligned with main pickOsasuna to WinBet365 guide price · Model 32% vs implied 41% · edge -9.2 pts
    2.45
    Check odds @ 2.45
    Load more odds for this section
    Osasuna Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 45%
    1.8
    Check odds @ 1.8
    Season data supports Osasuna to Win when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.
    League standings snapshot

    Current table context.

    PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
    4Atletico Madrid69382161118
    17Osasuna423811918-6
    Osasuna sit in position 17, while Atletico Madrid sit in position 4, so table pressure belongs in the Osasuna Win assessment.
    Key match trends

    Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

    60%Osasuna Over 2.5
    60%Atletico Madrid Over 2.5
    2.2H2H avg goals
    The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Osasuna sit at 60% and Atletico Madrid sit at 60% with the H2H average at 2.2 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

    Related football research

    Fixture links

    Prediction context

    Osasuna v Atletico Madrid prediction

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    Betting context

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