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Osasuna crestOsasuna
v
Athletic Club crestAthletic Club

La Liga | Sat 07 Nov, 17:30

Osasuna v Athletic Club Stats

Data last updated: Sat 07 Nov 2026, 18:21 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Athletic Club visits Osasuna in a La Liga clash where Athletic holds a stronger recent form and higher league standing. Athletic has collected 15 points compared to Osasuna's 11 and boasts a more efficient defense, conceding only 0.8 goals per game versus Osasuna's 2.0. Athletic's attack is slightly more potent, averaging 1.4 goals per match. Osasuna's struggle to keep clean sheets and lower recent points tally suggest Athletic could capitalize on defensive vulnerabilities. The match promises tactical intensity, with Athletic likely to press for control and exploit Osasuna's defensive lapses.

BT4Y best bet

Athletic Club Asian Handicap -0.5

  • Athletic Club ranks 7th with 15 points; Osasuna 15th with 11 points.
  • Athletic concedes 0.8 goals per game; Osasuna concedes 2.0, indicating defensive weakness.
  • Athletic averages 1.4 goals per match, higher than Osasuna's 1.2.
  • Athletic's recent form shows 8 points gained versus Osasuna's 4 in last matches.
  • Athletic averages more shots (15.6) and corners (5.4) than Osasuna (12.4 shots, 4.2 corners).

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Athletic Club to win with a 65.4% chance, reflecting their superior defensive record and more effective attack compared to Osasuna. Athletic's ability to limit goals conceded (0.8 per game) and maintain a higher points tally supports this. The of 16.6% indicates the of 2.05 offer good value. Athletic's higher shot volume and corner count suggest sustained pressure, increasing scoring opportunities. The model at 65% reinforces Athletic's likelihood to secure victory in this matchup.

Defensive solidityAthletic concedes 0.8 goals per game vs Osasuna's 2.0
Strong positive
Recent formAthletic gained 8 points recently vs Osasuna's 4
Positive
Attack efficiencyAthletic averages 1.4 goals per game vs Osasuna's 1.2
Positive
Value edge47.4% model chance
Strong positive
Shot and corner pressureAthletic averages 15.6 shots and 5.4 corners per game
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Athletic Club's stronger defensive record and recent form provide a solid foundation for victory against Osasuna. Their ability to generate more shots and maintain pressure should help break down Osasuna's defense, making Athletic the favored side to win this La Liga fixture.

Main risk

Late team news, price movement and market liquidity are the main cautions before kick-off.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Tactical and form advantage

“Athletic Club's disciplined defense and consistent attacking threat make them well-positioned to capitalize on Osasuna's defensive vulnerabilities in this match.”

Key Data Signals

Athletic Club Asian Handicap -0.5 evidence

Athletic Club ranks 7th with 15 points; Osasuna 15th with 11 points.

Athletic concedes 0.8 goals per game; Osasuna concedes 2.0, indicating defensive weakness.

Athletic averages 1.4 goals per match, higher than Osasuna's 1.2.

Athletic's recent form shows 8 points gained versus Osasuna's 4 in last matches.

What To Watch In The Data

Athletic Club Asian Handicap -0.5 notes

  • Over the last ten meetings, the average goals scored is 2.4 per game, indicating moderately open matches.
  • Athletic's recent matches have a 60% rate of over 2.5 goals, suggesting they can contribute to higher-scoring games.
  • Osasuna's lower over 2.5 rate at 40% points to more defensive matches.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Osasuna1.2
Avg goals scored
Athletic Club1.4
Osasuna2
Avg goals conceded
Athletic Club0.8
Osasuna60%
BTTS rate
Athletic Club40%
Osasuna40%
Over 2.5 goals
Athletic Club60%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 60% vs implied 51% · edge +8.7 pts
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Load more odds for this section
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 51%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 69%
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
Over 3.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 33%
4
Check odds @ 4
Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 53%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 44%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Both teams have moderate BTTS rates, with Osasuna at 60% and Athletic at 40%. The average goals per match in their recent form and H2H is 2.4, indicating a balanced likelihood of goals. Athletic's tighter defense suggests fewer goals conceded, while Osasuna's higher BTTS rate points to openness, making goal scoring probable but not guaranteed.

Continue the research

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Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Osasuna

LLWLD
Last 51W 1D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 1D 6L
02 Nov 2026A Deportivo La Coruna1-2
26 Oct 2026A Sevilla0-2
18 Oct 2026H Racing Santander2-0
11 Oct 2026A Real Betis2-5
19 Sep 2026H Rayo Vallecano1-1

Athletic Club

WWLDD
Last 52W 2D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 104W 3D 3L
01 Nov 2026H Real Sociedad2-1
25 Oct 2026H Getafe4-0
21 Oct 2026A Levante1-3
17 Oct 2026A Valencia0-0
19 Sep 2026H Alaves0-0
Market aligned with main pickAthletic Club to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 64% vs implied 49% · edge +15 pts
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
Load more odds for this section
Away / DrawBet365 guide price · model 84%
1.28
Check odds @ 1.28
Athletic Club Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 73%
1.55
Check odds @ 1.55
Athletic Club has earned 8 points recently, showing improved consistency compared to Osasuna's 4 points. Athletic's defense has conceded fewer goals, reflecting better form and tactical organization. Osasuna's struggle to secure points and higher goals conceded per game highlight vulnerabilities that Athletic can exploit to secure a win.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickAthletic Club to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 64% vs implied 49% · edge +15 pts
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
Load more odds for this section
Athletic Club Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 73%
1.55
Check odds @ 1.55
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 60%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 64%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 51%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
The model rates Athletic Club Asian Handicap -0.5 at 47.4% on the latest available numbers.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

40%Osasuna Over 2.5
60%Athletic Club Over 2.5
2.4H2H avg goals
Over the last ten meetings, the average goals scored is 2.4 per game, indicating moderately open matches. Athletic's recent matches have a 60% rate of over 2.5 goals, suggesting they can contribute to higher-scoring games. Osasuna's lower over 2.5 rate at 40% points to more defensive matches. This trend suggests a balanced chance for goals but with Athletic more likely to influence the scoring tempo.

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