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Omonia Nicosia crestOmonia Nicosia
v
Benfica crestBenfica

UEFA Europa League | Thu 22 Oct, 20:00

Omonia Nicosia v Benfica Stats

Data last updated: Thu 22 Oct 2026, 19:46 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Omonia Nicosia host Benfica in a pivotal UEFA Europa League clash, both sides unbeaten with six points from two matches. Omonia's defensive solidity and unbeaten 15-match home streak set a resilient foundation, while Benfica arrive in strong form, boasting four consecutive European wins and potent attacking options. The visitors benefit from extra rest after a weekend off, contrasting with Omonia's recent demanding comeback. This match promises a tactical battle between Omonia's compact defence and Benfica's dynamic offence, with stakes high as both aim to maintain perfect group starts.

BT4Y best bet

Omonia Nicosia Asian Handicap +1.25

  • Omonia unbeaten in last 15 home matches across all competitions
  • Omonia have kept 11 clean sheets in their last 20 European home games
  • Benfica won 10 of their last 11 matches but lost their most recent away game
  • Benfica scored at least twice in each of their last four European wins
  • Omonia’s +1.25 Asian Handicap offers a cushion against a narrow defeat

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The selection of Omonia Nicosia +1.25 Asian Handicap is supported by their exceptional home defensive record, including 11 clean sheets in 20 European home fixtures and an unbeaten 15-match home run. Benfica's strong form is acknowledged, but their recent away loss and Omonia's ability to absorb pressure against technically superior teams justify the handicap. The +1.25 line provides a safety net, allowing for a narrow defeat while capitalizing on Omonia's resilience. No price warning is needed as the fairly reflect the balanced contest.

Omonia's home defensive record11 clean sheets in last 20 European home games
Strong positive
Omonia's unbeaten home streak15 matches unbeaten at GSP Stadium
Strong positive
Benfica's recent form10 wins in last 11 matches with one away loss
Positive
Handicap cushion+1.25 Asian Handicap offers half-win on one-goal loss
Strong positive
Rest advantageBenfica had weekend off, Omonia played demanding draw
Neutral

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Omonia's formidable home defensive record and unbeaten run provide a strong tactical base to withstand Benfica's attacking threat. Benfica's recent form and recovery advantage make them favorites, but Omonia's resilience and the handicap cushion make backing the hosts with +1.25 Asian Handicap a sensible approach for a competitive match.

Main risk

Late team news, price movement and market liquidity are the main cautions before kick-off.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · defensive resilience vs attacking strength

“Omonia's defensive discipline at home is impressive, making the +1.25 Asian Handicap a smart choice against a potent Benfica attack that may struggle to break through a compact and organised defence.”

Key Data Signals

Omonia Nicosia Asian Handicap +1.25 evidence

Omonia unbeaten in last 15 home matches across all competitions

Omonia have kept 11 clean sheets in their last 20 European home games

Benfica won 10 of their last 11 matches but lost their most recent away game

Benfica scored at least twice in each of their last four European wins

What To Watch In The Data

Omonia Nicosia Asian Handicap +1.25 notes

  • Over the last five matches, Benfica have consistently scored multiple goals, while Omonia's defensive record has limited opponents' scoring opportunities.
  • This trend suggests a match with potential for goals but also significant defensive organisation from Omonia, making Over 2.5 Goals a watchful market rather than a confident pick.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Omonia Nicosia1.8
Avg goals scored
Benfica2.6
Omonia Nicosia0.6
Avg goals conceded
Benfica0.8
Omonia Nicosia20%
BTTS rate
Benfica80%
Omonia Nicosia40%
Over 2.5 goals
Benfica60%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 67% vs implied 56% · edge +11.1 pts
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
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Under 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 52%
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 70%
1.17
Check odds @ 1.17
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 52%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
Over 3.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 34%
2.3
Check odds @ 2.3
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 37%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Despite Benfica's recent high-scoring European matches, Omonia's defensive solidity and low goals conceded suggest a tighter game. The Over 2.5 Goals rate is moderate, with Benfica at 60% and Omonia at 40%, indicating a match that could produce goals but also defensive caution, making goal markets less predictable.

Continue the research

Useful next reads

more UEFA Europa League analysisfull betting preview for Omonia Nicosia v Benficacorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting angleslatest football statsmain football hubtoday's predictionsbest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickOmonia Nicosia Draw No BetBet365 guide price · Model 38% vs implied 23% · edge +15 pts
4.4
Check odds @ 4.4
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BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 67%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Over 8.5 CornersBetfred guide price · model 75%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
Over 3.5 CardsBet365 guide price · model 59%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Omonia Nicosia to WinBetfred guide price · model 28%
7.5
Check odds @ 7.5
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 52%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
The model rates Omonia Nicosia Asian Handicap +1.25 at 48.8% on the latest available numbers. Their +1.25 Asian Handicap offers a cushion against a narrow defeat, justified by their ability to absorb pressure and Benfica's recent away loss.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Omonia Nicosia

WWWLW
Last 54W 0D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 104W 1D 1L
15 Oct 2026A Celje3-0
16 Sep 2026H Celta Vigo1-0
27 Aug 2026H St. Truiden4-2
20 Aug 2026A St. Truiden0-1
13 Aug 2026H Lincoln Red Imps FC1-0

Benfica

WWWWD
Last 54W 1D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 106W 1D 1L
15 Oct 2026H Celtic4-1
16 Sep 2026A AC Milan2-0
27 Aug 2026A Aarhus3-1
20 Aug 2026H Aarhus3-1
13 Aug 2026A Heart Of Midlothian1-1
Market aligned with main pickHome / DrawBet365 guide price · Model 46% vs implied 31% · edge +15 pts
3.25
Check odds @ 3.25
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Omonia Nicosia Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 38%
4.4
Check odds @ 4.4
Omonia Nicosia to WinBetfred guide price · model 28%
7.5
Check odds @ 7.5
Omonia's recent form shows strong defensive performances with only 0.6 goals conceded per match and a low BTTS rate of 20%, underpinning their resilience. Benfica's form is more attack-oriented, scoring 2.6 goals per game with an 80% BTTS rate, indicating offensive consistency but also susceptibility to conceding, setting up a clash of contrasting recent trends.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

40%Omonia Nicosia Over 2.5
60%Benfica Over 2.5
-H2H avg goals
Over the last five matches, Benfica have consistently scored multiple goals, while Omonia's defensive record has limited opponents' scoring opportunities. This trend suggests a match with potential for goals but also significant defensive organisation from Omonia, making Over 2.5 Goals a watchful market rather than a confident pick.

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